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Flavins, you appear to be missing a key point in the hedging debate - the decision and amount being hedged was not made by the BoD for Tullow but by the Bond providers…….. a key stipulation of the original deal. It reduces over time as it is indeed doing from May this year.
Pipedreamer - we have had a challenging year and a bit with our price declining ever since a proposed merger with Capricorn was announced and resulted in our share dropping to an exceptional low of 22p in May. Since then we have staged a recovery (a correction is more apt) as the price was driven down by the Market due to a lack of updates.
Since then we have manged to fund $200m in cash to reduce our debts by $265M, opened up the Jubilee SE field increasing production, reduced our hedging volume and agreed a revised "interim" gas deal. There are further reasons to be positive should Kenya be confirmed and the imminent Tax dispute is going to tribunal that hopefully will show it to be as silly as the BOD believe it is. The H1 2023 update i do believe will confirm a loss for the period and this is simply due to upfront costs to have Jubilee SE up and running along with the $200M payments to reduce debt. It should be no surprise to any shareholder as this has been well communicated by the Tullow Board and if Oil continue to hold its current Value then the H2 numbers will be great as the % hedging is reduced, volume up etc.
It has been said many times by the Board that this is the year when people will stop talking about the debt and i am hopeful this is the case but i do recognise that our costs are front loaded so we need to be patient and trust the Board to deliver on their promises - as they have all purchased shares in recent times i am confident all will be revealed, just have no idea when this will be as it always seems to be longer than many on this Board are willing to wait.
If they give a timescale on Kenya then brilliant but my hunch is they will simply say it is is progressing...
I am more confident now of Tullow than i have ever been but as per many of the comments form this Board the journey so far has not been an easy one.
Perhaps the underlying message here is that Tullow will focus on Kenya (and are banking on this happening) so do not need unnecessary costs elsewhere.
Africa is the key focus and with further licences being offered Tullow see the best potential in Kenya.
Sounds perfect but it needs to be signed and delivered first!
Brent Crude is up 1.6% currently
Ghana's inflation rate has reduced to 45% (3 successive declines in 3 months)
Most Oil Majors are up but less than the Oil price increase
Jefferies have placed a low Value against Tullow (again)
With increased Oil rate then this should transfer to higher returns for ourselves and our key Nation appears to be improving their inflation issues (which caused a down value on Tullow last year).
Whilst confident there are other goings on which we are not privy too (II's playing their own game) it seems best to wait and sit on the sidelines, keeping my patience.
POWER, Rahul presented earlier today on Yellowstone (if you are a shareholder it was easy to view) and similar to his update a few weeks ago, recognising the market valuation is not something he can directly control and in his view Tullow is undervalued. He is focused on what he can control and i am optimistic so long as current Global financial upheaval settles. This year is very much two halves with investment high front end (negative cash flow) but the reverse for the second half year. Debt was discussed and the current thinking was to use the cash available to invest into short term projects to release greater long term cash flow. They have a plan (are a few years ahead of where they projected they would be in 2021) so i have confidence and recognise sometimes you simply need to be patient......something lacking from a few on this Board.