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Evetually being a key word there. And sp is rising a tad today. That is, it isn't plumetting, on fear of First going bust.

As Dogama said, it isn't so straightforward to simply set up bus services to replace overnight all the private providers. Where's the money coming from for one thing? Or will Labour just appropriate all the private companies assets? Hardly.

Many a slip twixt cup and lip. First are ok for a while yet; suffiecient to keep making a profit I think, and thus support the sp.

Why leylandleopard?

Don't you think they can improve enough to keep the contract until it expires naturally?

Yep I agree. And sp only down circa 1.5/2p on ex D. Holding up ok at the mo'.

Reeves is due to report a financial statement in the near future. More will likely become clearer then about their intent. Meanwhile, as long as there are improvements in service in the contracts, Labour'll hold off cancelling them early; they won't have grounds. And sone of First's still have some useful duration left in them.

If it was a total wipeout for First, the sp would have tanked before, when public ownership became likely. But it didn't.

Government can't replace the private sector. There isn't enough tax money to buy it all out. And it's very doubtful there will be in the future.

THANKFULLY. this isn't Corbyn socialism.

Wait and see.

Labour's Pat McFadden tells BBC Breakfast, --

"As the franchises for individual railways come to an end, [we want to] bring them into public ownership, to create a more integrated system, to simplify the ticketing, to make sure there is more interconnection between companies and to give ourselves a more reliable rail network and rail service.

"We think it is too fragmented and too unreliable and we want to do something about that."

Asked again on a timescale, McFadden says it depends on when the franchise contracts end. ---

August a new First/Trenitalia West Coast Partnership franchise was announced, commencing December 2019 until December 2031, extendable to December 2034. Contract replaced in September 2023 (see below) with a core term to October 2026 and full term to October 3032.

FGP NEWS.

FirstGroup's Avanti West Coast summoned amid "woeful" service

Louise Haigh demanded "immediate action" from Avanti West Coast in a meeting with its managing director, Andy Mellors, after official figures showed its passengers faced some of the worst travel disruption in the country. Avanti West Coast is owned by FirstGroup PLC and Trenitalia.

Haigh said: "Britain's railways are failing passengers day-in, day-out, and as Passenger-in-Chief I've made it my number one priority to hold industry bosses to account.

"That's why I've called in the worst performing train operating companies – starting with Avanti West Coast – alongside Network Rail and demanded immediate action to raise standards.

"Change starts now. Through bold action to move fast and fix things, we can make sure passengers get the service they deserve with the biggest overhaul to our railways in a generation."

Pragmatic it seems. It's hardly the nationalisation feared before Labour's landslide win. That Stephenson Harwood link shows the private sector is needed. As long as First step up with improvements, and it's in their own interests to do so anyway, then the bottom line is, the SP won't plummet, it'll rise; bar any other factors affecting it negatively.

Kings speech to parliament tomorow. We may find out more then.

Or perhaps the threat from Labour's 'rail nationalisation' policy, isn't so great after all. It could well be that there remains a decent place for the private operator.

https://www.shlegal.com/insights/top-table-lunch-in-conversation-with-juergen-maier-cbe-top-10-takeaways

At the momemt.

Vol. Sold 62,223

Vol. Bought 35,289

And yet sp still rising.

Must be more than the divi driving this.

Interesting. Seems odd then that anyone would buy first for a 4p divi, if the sp is at risk of dropping far more than that (I don't mean 4 or 6p) because of Labour's plans.

That's what I don't get. It was at around 185 and rising, when Labour's threat hit the news. Drop was up to 30p. But since recovered FAR more than the 4p divi, and despite quite large selling volumes.

I bought way before divi announced, I'm holding for now.

If the sp stays roughly at 174 ish , I expect it will fall back to circa 170 when it goes ex D on thr 18th this Thursday. Is that about correct?

Ok thanks. But irrespective, the divi is only 4p, and there hasn't been massive buying vs selling. So there must be a reason for the sp to have risen a lot more than 4p, above its recent lows in the mid 150's.

It fell from curca 180 on bad news about labour and 'nationalisation' of rail. Has that threat receded a little?

Yep.

But also, 9th July, Berenberg raises FirstGroup price target to 205 (195) pence - 'buy'.

Maybe that's helping too.

Is 4p divi enough for this sp rise?

The sp is rising, and has been rising, even though the volumes sold are very often MORE than the volumes bought.

I thought the sp fell when sales were greater than buys.

Can someone explain?

Is it just seling into the share price rise? If so, what is driving the sp higher?

Yep, that looks like a reason.

News

FTSE 250 ----------

RBC raises FirstGroup price target to 200 (195) pence - 'outperform'

So why is the sp dropping?

Well the results, which don't seem bad to me, have gone down like a cup of cold sick judging by the share price today.

Not looking good.

BROKER RATING CHANGES

----------

Berenberg raises FirstGroup price target to 195 (191) pence - 'buy'

LONDON, April 24 (Reuters)

---

"Shares in FirstGroup, which runs buses and also has contracts for rail services in western England, to Edinburgh from London, and some commuter services in London, fell 2% in early deals. Analysts said FirstGroup's stock does not price in any future rail contracts, hence the small move."

"This is not a surprise. Labour have been talking about this for absolutely ages," said Liberum analyst Gerald Khoo. "The only thing that's slightly more tangible is they're much closer to getting into power."

Not a surprise, but not welcomed either judging by the selling volumes.

I should have sold at 184 a little while back.