focusIR May 2024 Investor Webinar: Blue Whale, Kavango, Taseko Mines & CQS Natural Resources. Catch up with the webinar here.
Nice Buys filtering through
TIPTOP not much stock left :-)
This has one way ticket North
Massively undervalued and expect to see 20 -25p very short term.
Happy New Year everyone..
:-)
Excellent post Spike.. To the point, bring it on I can't wait for tomorrow open... GLA
Thanks crusty Pete.. Looks like I'll be paying CGT GLA
I did here bed to isa transfer so I will discuss with my broker
Is it possible to transfer into an isa
Morning Tilburn.
Out of interest what would the sp be at those figures estimated of course..
Thanks ST
The best part TT is we have found 3 additional pay zones and our BOPD will be much more than expected this is just the start and when we drill down to Djeno and hopefully find more hydrocarbons well this stock will be stock of the year imo
Wow i cant wait for the rerate.
Morning TipTop
I completely agree with you looking like we re going to be in a very strong position 2019.
New licences, lots of oil in the ground massively undervalued and very close to the refinery what more could we ask for im very happy to be invested here...
GL
Interesting last two hours before close today, Expecting a hard push up to the 12p or above maybe 12.25p
One thing for sure Wed - Friday is going to be exciting regards the results.
GLA
Mms can't hold this hot share back much longer now. This week is going to be a huge week for AAOG.
I'm expecting a big day today especially towards the end of trading peeps will want to be in with multiple pay zones. GLA
Best news ever if your telling the truth. No placing will send AAOG into Orbit next week... So pleased I'm in here at 7.5p.. Looking forward to the Bopd estimations... I reckon we will walk upto 12p heading towards test results day then when test results are in and hopefully good I see 20p plus GLA
Don't forget the 3 additional pay zones.
Exactly, expect a walk up everyday now until test results, then expect a massive rise up because we girls and boys are sitting on black gold... No brainer
I can see a rise every day now leading to test results. Next week we will be much higher 👆
AAOG - BROKER VALUATION
Finncap Broker Note - Jun 2018
Https://goo.gl/qvQrFR
We have separately modelled the three different target horizons for the upcoming TLP103 well using the PSC terms detailed in Appendix I, a Brent oil price of US$65/bbl in 2018/19 and $70/bbl flat long term, and a 10% discount rate. Given that the production infrastructure is largely already in place, capex is mainly limited to future drilling/workover requirements on the different reservoirs. We also phase the capex so that it can be funded from operating cash flow. The CPR assumes fixed opex of US$62,650 per annum with variable opex of US$4.12/bbl in all of the scenarios.
R1-R2
For the producing R1/R2 reservoirs, we assume plateau production of 250 bpd is reached in 2021 with a well workover performed every other year to maintain output. Net cash generated in this case is ~$2m per annum once plateau production is achieved, generating a NPV of $13.2m or 6.3p/sh.
Mengo valuation
For the Mengo we have considered the Best (8.1mmbbls gross) and High (23.8mmbbls gross) contingent resource cases laid out in the CPR. For each, we have assumed Mengo wells have an IP of 800 bpd, but quickly decline to ~500bpd before stabilising at a more modest (10% p.a.) decline rate. The number of development wells required varies from five in the Best case to 13 in the High case, with 2-3 wells drilled per annum. We have assumed $3.5m for each well resulting in drilling costs of $18.5m and $50m for the Best and High cases respectively. This gives an unrisked valuation for the Mengo horizon of $68-169m (30-75p/sh), or 18-45p/sh on a risked basis.
Djeno valuation
For the Djeno, we have modelled the Best (15.9mmbbls gross) and High (42.3mmbbls gross) prospective resource cases as per the CPR. While neighbouring wells in the Djeno have achieved flow rates ~5,000 bpd, to be conservative we have assumed each well produces at 2,500 bpd with an initial decline rate of 25% p.a., moderating to 15% p.a. after four years. The number of development wells required varies from four in the Best case to 10 in the High case, with two wells drilled per annum. We have assumed drilling costs of $4m per well with an additional $2.5m capex for storage/topside facilities and $8m to connect to an export terminal. This gives development costs of $30.5m and $54.5m respectively for the Best and High resource cases, or $1.9/bbl and $1.3/bbl.This gives an unrisked valuation range for the Djeno horizon of $156-360m (69-159p/sh), or 16-39p/sh on a risked basis.
See huge rise now especially on Friday. Sit back and enjoy its all money now huge rerate coming this is so undervalued we will be 20p plus in no time.
11p ask here we go