Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Mudstud, Thanks for all your efforts to keep us appraised of activities or lack thereof on the ground at Z-21. Would it be possible that the Azeri Nowruz/Spring Holiday which ran from 20th to 24th March inclusive might have had an impact on progress?
Now up on SEDAR. All resolutions passed at either 100% or 99.98%. Someone with 7000 shares no happy.
Very Interesting and very recent: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-18/indonesia-eyes-bids-from-oil-s-big-boys-in-europe-u-s-shows
Hi Gods, here's what I wrote on this matter on 21st Feb with calcs: A very nice upgrade to reserves with more to come, of that, I am certain. In an attempt to put some value on this I used this handy gas to barrel of oil converter here: http://www.kylesconverter.com/energy,-work,-and-heat/cubic-feet-of-natural-gas-to-barrels-of-oil-equivalent As reserves increase, posters might this converter useful over time. So 40.8 billion cubic feet of 2P equates to 7,033,705 barrels of oil equivalent. Now, just for fun, let's assume that any offtake agreement involves the investor taking a 30% cut. 70% leaves TLOU with 4,923,593 BOE. The really daft number is what you want to ascribe to those barrels by way of acquisition dollars. When oil was crazy high you might use $40, when oil was crazy low you might use $2. I will plumb for $20, it's as good a number as any other. 4,923,593 X $20 = $98,471,860 => �70,538,598 / 329,470,000 (shares in issue) => 21.41p per share. Very much all just back of the fag packet, but goes to show what TG means when he says increasing 2P reserves is one of the key metrics in making the investment case for TLOU's assets in Botswana. Having said all that, the offtake agreement is vital - it's make or break.
Yes I agree. Investors are fortunate to have access to the CFO in such an open and honest manner. As stated before on the metric of converting current gas reserves to BOE, then TLOU, right now and at fair market value should be at 21.5p on a most conservative evaluation. But this is AIM, and sentiment is low due to the RFP set back. I am confident that this will be reversed at a time which is dictated. not by TLOU, but by the Botswana Government. Hold on, the prize is still there and patience will be rewarded.
Whilst awaiting the expected news from AC and MP, I was wondering if I correct in assuming that our long lost friend Bebolder, was in fact working for Beaufort Securities and employed to talk down the ZEN sp? If so, should one not wonder why LSE.co.uk allowed this situation to occur and persist. Also, why would a broker for any company actively try to trash the market cap of said company via online chat boards?
Thanks Buzz, some people are just twisted I guess. Tony Gilby will find a way. Our CEO is sharp as a tack.
Tlou is undervalued on any sane evaluation. I have already posted here that in my conservative opinion converting the reserves to BOE gives an sp of 21.25p right now. Trouble is investment and route to revenue. It is too bad the process for progressing the Lesedi assets have stalled, but I have confidence that things will turn out well but not for some months. Off topic. what is going on with the garbage on A D V F N. I read this and could not believe it: 1) Botswana is self-sufficient in energy. 2) There is a massive sell off of Tlou stock underway. 3) CBM is not on the agenda in Botswana These guys are total nuts.
That lot should include the blow-out preventer for Z-21.
What am I missing here? 70.9million shares issued at IPO 21/12/17, with an admission price of 25p. Total Net assets amount to 1P reserves worth $27m => �19.4m Today's sp is 70p and a market cap of �49.63m. Overvalued, or am I missing something?
Well my rough and ready TLOU fair market valuation assuming the 7m BOE, comes out at 21.41p per share. When the BOTS Gov. come out with the new and fit for purpose RFP process and if it is on the fast track basis that TG and CC are hoping for, then I reckon the above FMV will be attained - without much trouble at all. Note that the calcs are based on the current shares in issue - (no more placings or warrants).
Mixed up Bebolder becomes Scottish insult in Spain or France! (2,6)
A very nice upgrade to reserves with more to come, of that, I am certain. In an attempt to put some value on this I used this handy gas to barrel of oil converter here: http://www.kylesconverter.com/energy,-work,-and-heat/cubic-feet-of-natural-gas-to-barrels-of-oil-equivalent As reserves increase, posters might this converter useful over time. So 40.8 billion cubic feet of 2P equates to 7,033,705 barrels of oil equivalent. Now, just for fun, let's assume that any offtake agreement involves the investor taking a 30% cut. 70% leaves TLOU with 4,923,593 BOE. The really daft number is what you want to ascribe to those barrels by way of acquisition dollars. When oil was crazy high you might use $40, when oil was crazy low you might use $2. I will plumb for $20, it's as good a number as any other. 4,923,593 X $20 = $98,471,860 => �70,538,598 / 329,470,000 (shares in issue) => 21.41p per share. Very much all just back of the fag packet, but goes to show what TG means when he says increasing 2P reserves is one of the key metrics in making the investment case for TLOU's assets in Botswana. Having said all that, the offtake agreement is vital - it's make or break.
I believe that it would be of great benefit, if Tony Gilby were to say some words via the ********** PodCast. It would steady the ship and provide clarity for share holders. Colm has done his best. Shareholders need to hear from the man himself.
This quote from the above rns had me puzzled: "...it has continued to pursue other potential options for the sale of Tlou's gas ...". In my humble opinion, the Gas belongs to the people and Government of Botswana and TLOU can, currently exploit those Gas resources under license to the Botswana Government within a framework dictated by the BGov The Gas does not belong to TLOU.. If this attitude was carried over in discussions with the appropriate Bots ministry then the TLOU board better sharpen up their approach because the Botswana Government does not have pocket Aces, it has all the Aces in a 4 card deck. IMHO.
Maybe exporting power from Botswana to surrounding countries is the way to go. I posted this on Thursday and Africa Energy plan to do exactly that from Bots to Zambia. Here's the link: https://www.daily-mail.co.zm/africa-energy-resources-zesco-engage/
Shocked and amazed by that rns. 10 steps forward, then hits the buffers. Did someone not sell 1millions shares about 7 to 10 days ago in 2 500k tranches? If so, was that just a standard hedge or was someone in know - who has got that kind of holding in TLOU? Not a buying opportunity from my perspective until the clarity Tidd refers to is published in the coming days.
.... to Zambia?? Crikey, you'd think they would concentrate on meeting the internal power shortages first ! https://www.daily-mail.co.zm/africa-energy-resources-zesco-engage/
Seems like a no-brainer Minor. This from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the USA: "A final interesting data point shared by the EIA shows that the cost of building natural gas generators dropped 28 percent between 2013 and 2015, as more efficient combined cycle plants that have both combustion and steam turbines made up most of the new installations. That makes building natural gas plants competitive, in addition to the fact that natural gas is already competitive in terms of fuel price. The cheap fuel has been undercutting efforts to bring back coal and fund new nuclear plants, and construction costs will surely factor into how the US creates electricity in the future." https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2017/07/renewables-have-briefly-exceeded-nuclear-for-the-first-time-in-decades/
Although not so good for Botswana overall, this is a real shot in the arm for TLOU and others. Although not surprising, it's just underlines the dire needs of Southern Africa for the basics of a modern society - ie guaranteed and secure energy production: https://af.reuters.com/article/africaTech/idAFL8N1PO3IY