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Fleet sales are the standout for me in todays trading update
"Total Guardian hardware sales for FY2023 of 14,779 units, with Q4 achieving record sales of over 10,000 units as backlog demand met following easing of earlier supply chain constraints"
10k units in one quarter is very strong
"In Aftermarket, annual Guardian hardware sales have grown by 11%, with previous supply issues now largely overcome. Monitored connections of 51,975 excludes the sale of over 5,700 Guardian units, upgrading customers from Generation 1 to Generation 2, as Australia phases out its 3G networks in favour of 4G over the next 12 months."
They explain the cash position, not an issue at all.
"Working capital increased due to the timing of Guardian inventory deliveries, leading to an increased level of inventory and receivables at 30 June 2023. Inventory levels are sufficient to support demand for H1 FY2024 and will unwind along with receivables in the first half of FY24."
Very good video
Why has bluecruise had 64m miles in US with no incidents?
You will like the answer
Part 2
What could Q4 hardware sales be, doesnt matter if they are connected or not, once they are sold they count in revenue for end of year.
Option 1:
Modest 100% ramp up on Q3, so sell 6,296k, which would leave a very large proportion of the 29k unsold
Revenue upside $7.5m
So $61m v Cenkos $53.5m
What do we know.?
- mentioned 29k order and will want most of them gone ASAP
- Q3 did 3,148 units, from only 1,536 units in previous 6 months
- we have the aussie replacement thing in our favour also.
Unit rate seems to be something like $1,971/ 1536 = $1,283k per unit
I will call it $1.2k per unit for ease
Option 2 = Cenkos have a number that's double in their note after most recent KPIs
So if I use their 12k units, I get a revenue beat of $14.6m
$68m v Cenkos $53.5m
Option 3 = if they got to say 15,000 units compared to the Cenkos 12k
Revenue upside circa $18m
$71m v Cenkos $53.5m.
Of course I am just an uneducated dreamer so let's see
part 1:
i have done some *** packet workings for my view of the revenue number for the trading update. source documents i have used for my analysis include the h1 report and cenkos forecast.
this is the workings from my ***-packet, of course i am an uneducated dreamer shareholder but anyway i have a range.
h1:
revenue was $24.4m
loss was $5.4m
some *** packet numbers:
cenkos:
revenue $53.5m
loss $15.2m
for the full year
so to do in h2
revenue $29.1m
loss $9.8m
so oem first (includes aviation)
- h1 royalty revenue = £3.1m, per quarterly kpis this is for 253k units.
- q3 was 173k units, i am assuming 200k for q4 (same growth rate) = 387k units and $4.7m revenue
call it $1.5m upside
nre is $4.7m for h1, we would have some vw in that but with vw so large i can assume nre will increase 25%.
so call it a $1.2m upside
licensing
- magna was $5.4m in h1.
- trying to work out how they did that, it was $17.5m over 3 years and $10m of that paid upfront.
so there will be an element in h2.
- h2 we have the collins upfront payment of $3m. (of the $10m).
- for now i am going to assume license revenue is flat
that all gets me $15.7m ish for oem, lets call it $16m
so we need $29m for h2 and $16m comes from oem
fleet therefore needs $13m
h1 fleet was $10.3m
the big kicker should be hardware and installations.
driver monitoring in h1 was $5.2m, thats the recurring revenue so can only ever increase.
at h1 report they state "annualised" as $11.9m so divide by 2 is $5.95m and add a modest 10% increase for new i get $6.5m.
an increase of $1.3m.
royalties is cat, i will assume flat, nre also flat.
so fleet hardware
h1
units 1,536 revenue $1.9m
well we know that in q3 they did. 1,854 new units sold and 1,294 replaced (oz specific 3g issue)
so q3 alone using assumed unit rate from h1 i get, 3,148 units which is revenue of $4m.
fleet
monitoring $6.5m
royalty $1m
nre $2.1m
hardware $4m
total = $13.6m
so this is my full year assumptions for other elements but known hardware sales to end q3 only.
then i add oem of $16m, gets me to exactly the cenkos forecast of $29.1m
key point =
so i get to a place that all hardware sales in q4 are upside to the cenkos overall forecast of $53.5m .
tbc
Interesting shortwhacker
How long has DMS been around then?
Nice find
10 April 2019
10 April 2019
Seeing Machines Limited
Design win for next generation automotive program
Seeing Machines (AIM: SEE, "Seeing Machines" or the "Group"), the advanced computer vision technology company that designs AI powered operator monitoring systems to improve transport safety, has been appointed by Joyson Safety Systems (JSS) to provide its FOVIO driver monitoring technology for a US automotive OEM as it expands the rollout of their award-winning driving system across a number of additional vehicle models.
Mass production for the additional models is scheduled from 2020, and the expansion represents an initial estimated lifetime revenue of over A$7 million for Seeing Machines.
Seeing Machines now has seven OEM production programs spanning a broad range of car models across a total of six automotive OEMs globally, which are expected to deliver over A$150 million revenue largely in the 2021 to 2024 timeframe.
Seeing Machines' FOVIO driver monitoring platform uses advanced machine vision technology to precisely measure and analyse head pose, eyelid movements and eye-gaze under a full spectrum of demanding lighting conditions, including through sunglasses. This data is processed to interpret driver attention state, focus, drowsiness and impairment levels to provide ADAS (advanced driver assistance systems) with critical inputs in real time.
Driver Monitoring Systems (DMS) technology is set to become standard technology in most modern passenger cars for improved driver and semi-automated driving safety.
Nick DiFiore, GM of Automotive at Seeing Machines, commented:
"We are delighted to have further validation of our technology with this program award to extend the rollout of the FOVIO DMS across more vehicles for this major customer.
"Our team has worked closely with JSS to deliver this program and we are proud to continue our association."
Keep up Steve.
No fundraise needed since the Magna deal
the future is pretty clear if we just look at auto design wins which go into sop in 24, the kpis will go nuts
1) vw group
dec 21 design win
sop 24
"this program covers an expansive number of vehicle models with mass production scheduled from early 2024 and an initial lifetime value of a$125 million. while representing the largest awarded dms program to date, there also remains significant upside potential based on oem expansion plans. delivery is via the company's deeply embedded driver monitoring engine (fovio e-dme software library) configured for both driver and occupant state sensing, enabling a rich set of regulated and premium safety and convenience features."
2) renault
design win may 22
sop 2024
"seeing machines limited (aim: see, "seeing machines" or the "company"), the advanced computer vision technology company that designs ai-powered operator monitoring systems to improve transport safety, has been appointed by a new global automotive tier-1 customer to deliver its fovio driver monitoring system (dms) for a new european automaker (oem).
the program has been awarded with certain minimum volume guarantees, covering a number of vehicle models with start of production scheduled from early 2024 and an initial value of a$27 million, bringing the total number of oem customers to 10. the program will be delivered via company's embedded driver monitoring engine (fovio e-dme software library), pre-integrated and optimised for qualcomm's 3rd generation snapdragon® ****pit platforms."
3) stellantis
design win june 22
sop 2024
seeing machines limited (aim: see, "seeing machines" or the "company"), the advanced computer vision technology company that designs ai-powered operator monitoring systems to improve transport safety, has been appointed by an existing global automotive tier-1 customer to deliver its fovio driver monitoring system (dms) for a large global automotive group (oem).
this program, to be delivered via seeing machines' embedded driver monitoring engine (fovio e-dme software library), is led out of north america and covers a broad array of vehicle models with certain minimum volume guarantees, a start of production scheduled from mid-2024, and an initial lifetime value of a$23 million."
4) bmw
design wins 2019
major ramp up in volumes in 2024
Indeed I did David, it's called being self deprecating.
Good news is I still have a few 'Team300' t-shirts left, if you would like one just dm me your shirt size.
Have a great year
DR777, we don't know if the wins by others are part of the 10 or not. The Cipia win as an example didn't even come with a value attached.
I cut Paul some lack for his timing predictions as its put of his hands.
I remember when people used to predict 100p by 2020
Brock,
so using your numbers, when up to full volume with BMW
2m cars per annum @ $11 ASP = revenue $22m per annum
Margin is 95% (per Paul) so margin is $21m
I assume no additional admin costs etc so thats $21m on the bottom line
If that was the whole company and using a very prudent 13x profit it would be valued at $273m , convert at todays FX rate of 1.28 would value the company at £213m.
Current market cap of the whole company is £216m
Sp you are saying the BMW contract supports the current market cap, hard to argue with your logic
Of course this won't just be Shell owned fleet it will be their supply chain also
I do wonder if the Shell win is waiting for gen3 for the high volumes
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/962764/seeing-machines-inks-framework-deal-with-shell-for-driver-distraction-and-fatigue-technology-962764.html
GM is one that appears to have under delivered so far, I think we had a GM design win in 2014 do they had a big headstart on other OEMs
Did they take advantage?
Welcome back HAGD, your insight and knowledge has been missed.
I assume you are tipping Shergar for the gold Cup, again
Its the storm before the storm
Sandy, Terry said he would sack me as his apprentice unless I got the finger out and did some work
Who called BMW first"?
I am giving that award to Chris Menon from safe stocks, as this extract is from a blog in March 2018, over years ago, he was early not wrong
"I’m convinced that Seeing Machines has recently been awarded a contract worth more than US$25m a year by BMW to supply its driver monitoring system in its cars, some of which should be available for sale by 2020.
From discussions with auto industry contacts, I believe the contract is for many forthcoming models (several million cars) and the DMS is likely to eventually end up being standard issue within the instrument cluster of all BMW cars. Given that BMW sells roughly 2.3m cars a year and that Seeing Machines would get approximately US$30 a car, that makes a potential annual income of US$57m a year by 2020, rounded down to US$50m.
Given that in the auto industry the lifetime of a model lasts for roughly 5 years, the lifetime value of this contract should be at least US$125m, though it could be as much as US$250m."