The next focusIR Investor Webinar takes places on 14th May with guest speakers from Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund. Please register here.
CB said we were not 'late' but there may be a delay of a couple of months. Not sure I understand the logic: being late with a good reason is still late. That said I was trying to work out whether 2 months would be long enough for what needs to be done. I suggest some timescales for certain tasks below. This is real finger in the air stuff with the intention of getting people with more knowledge to comment and give us a better timeline.
So I think we should estimate 8 weeks after drilling is completed to get the last assay results.
The approvals for the drill locations might be handled concurrently but may take still take 8 weeks say minus 3 weeks because they have probably put the requests in a few weeks ago. (I wonder whether this is actually true for Footrot.)
I assume we only have two drilling rigs and we can only do half of the ascot frilling and probably none of the Footrot drilling before getting the new approvals, so as a guess we might need say four weeks of drilling at Ascot after approvals, then four weeks more at Footrot. (I suspect two holes in Footrot will not be enough because they may well miss at mineralisation on the first go.)
So that suggests to me a probable earliest timescale we could complete the planned tasks is:
Approvals of new drilling sites at Ascot and Footrot: 5 weeks
Drilling Ascot say 4 weeks drilling after approvals.
Drilling footrot 4 weeks more (need the drills)
Complete assay results 8 weeks after the last Footrot drilling.
So in total 5+4+4+8 weeks = (approx) 5 months.
Any improvements on this or better way of calculating the probable timescale? Thanks!
I understand CB said it would probably be soon shortly imminent.
if we get an interview today
If the remaining assay results are good
If we get told about them via an RNS
If we have 2MT
If Ascot has enough gold
If Ascot has significant copper
If our African assets start producing
If we get an updated model
If AA is interested
If we don't have to spend another year drilling Ascot
If Colin can negotiate a good price
If Footrot is viable
but also
If we all live long enough
then maybe .....
I really think CB has indicated ages ago that we are extremely close to 2MT and he was fairly sure we would get there. So it seems to me some people here may be losing their nerve because of the radio silence. I suspect (no proof) Colin is playing the 'I will reveal my cards when i am ready and not before' strategy. Saying we have 2MTs starts the game proper and he may want to know more about Ascot and Footrot before Kicking off (sorry for the mixed metaphor - but I'm sure people will get my drift). I think it is more likely we have well over 2MT as having less. Am I being too optimistic? Time will tell. The lack of news about RC is It is all very frustrating I know, but I am continuing to try to be patient! I wonder whether we will get another interview before/on Tuesday as some people have suggested! The right RNS and the picture will look completely different. ATB
The potential may be huge, and yes they may still be drilling, but didn't CB say sometime drilling would stop by end May (i.e. today)? Is that still true? Doesn't he need to be more clear what the plan now is and just how much more drilling is planned and what the new (?) timetable is, if there is one.? Too much playing games, not enough clear communicating. If he doesn't know but his past 'promises' are no longer valid shouldn't he be honest and clear about that!
So, I'm confused again! Was this RNS the promised: 'interim summary of the Racecourse and Ascot prospects.' or just haif of it with the Racecourse part to come.
Can't say I found this RNs very earth-shattering! Anyone else feel it was a bit of a let down?
I am getting fed up seeing green boxes and posts about Vast. Sorry don't know what it is, and couldn't be bothered to find out. So I thought I would make a, probably vain, attempt to bring discussion back to Xtr. So ...
CB wrote in latest RNS
'We intend to issue a release shortly that gives an interim summary of the Racecourse and Ascot prospects.'
I'm never clear about CB's time words. So what do people think 'shortly' means?
this week?
Next week?
Weeks but not months?
A month or two?
It has no meaning, it will take as long as it takes but CB can't say that?
ATB to XTR investors.
(Vast investors - just go back to your own board plz.)
But I suspect that If AA knew they were not really interested they may want Xtr to keep drilling and prove up the resource as much as possible so that an important competitor doesn't get a huge mine for a song. My point is that everything is guesswork at present. The only fact that really seems to me to have meaning is the strange observation that CB hasn't 'barked' recently. I'm fairly sure Sherlock H would make something of that!
Good post Steve, but shouldn't we also consider the possibility hat AA may not want to buy at all at the probable asking price?
28 Feb RNS
The Survey [i.e. the MIMDAS survey] is underway and is expected to complete within four weeks
2 March RNS
Structural information suggests that the Racecourse porphyry swings towards a southerly strike direction as it moves towards the south and follow-up holes will be collared from drill pads located further to the west, for which approval is expected shortly from the NSW authorities
7 March RNS
On completion of the geophysics survey, and the granting of permission for the new drill pads, we will be better able to continue drilling the inferred extension of the Racecourse system to the south."
31 March RNS
The MIMDAS survey is on-going and we hope to report soon the successful approval of new drill pad locations to explore the extension of the Racecourse porphyry further towards the south."
10 May RNS
We continue to drill and model to better understand both Ascot and the area between Ascot and Racecourse. The modelling for the primary Racecourse open pit is advancing satisfactorily."
17th May RNS
Modelling continues at the project, with the Racecourse prospect indicating that it has grades and tonnes justifying a rework of the conceptual open pit.
Lots of work going on but we seem to have very limit or zero visibility of the results! Has Colin got laryangitis?
Assuming no discussions are underway in the background, why do people think that CB has not had any cozy chats with Zac recently? Is he saving himself for a big drumroll event soon? Or does he maybe think the the recent RNSs don't require any explanation to the market? Or perhaps some other reason? I would have thought some clarification of the RNSs and comment about timescales etc might have been useful to calm jittery nerves, but what do I know?
A few people seem to be getting worried by the recent drop. I suspect patience is probably the best response, not panic , Remember what they say "the darkest night is just before the dawn'. But we all have to make our own decisions with our own money! GLA.
When there is a news vacuum, people will try to fill it, some with sense, some with nonsense. Coiln, if you don't fill the gap, others will. News please!
I'm not complaining about the fact that there may be more gold than copper in the second porphyry , value is value. However does anyone know whether one porphyry being mainly Copper and the other mainly Gold would mean that the two would need completely different infrastructure etc Hence would the the capex be significantly higher or not than if the two porphyrys were similar?
News is now overdue, but I don't believe we should necessarily think that just because the SP is rising someone knows something. Maybe, but I am hoping the rise is the market waking up rather than someone knowing news is about to drop! Markets can move in mysterious ways!
I'm not so sure we would just accept. I expect Colin to have a good idea about what other competitors would pay (because he has probably talked to several of them informally) . If AA don't come fairly close to that level (whatever that level is), I think Colin may well just walk away from AA. Could be wrong, but it seems to me we have a fairly good poker hand here.
Iam hoping we hold on to the other tenement tights. Rinse and repeat,
Anyone superstitious? The beast (6.66) has now arrived!
*** think.
Concerning the reporting of completed holes, are we sure that the original plan for reporting is still in place ? Or has the timing of reporting shifted to only when new significant milestones/information is available? This issue is not the only matter on which I am now unclear. The first of two interviews a week or so ago very clearly stated that we aren't going to need to prove up Ascot to any great extent before we sell, but the second interview seemed to [possibly] row back from that at least a bit. I am reminded of the US position on Taiwan! Is Colin changing the plan as new info becomes available (which has a degree of logic I suppose)? Or is he indulging in a little bit of intentional strategic ambiguity? Perhaps he wants to keep his options open and muddy the waters about his intentions to keep AA on their toes! Generally I feel the strategy may be more in a state of flux than we thing.