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"We look forward to providing further updates once TD has been achieved and once the logs and initial analyses have been completed."
The English language is tough. That sentence could easily mean two updates or only one. Probably means two since the plural noun updates precedes the word and. And the word once is used twice.
Could have been more clearly written. Or just put ChatAI on the job.
It is nice to have two horses in the race. Both have the same idea, find primary helium in east african rift basin.
Both have broadly experienced teams. Both are under-capitalized. They have slightly different type of targets, but still are both looking for reservoirs where migrating helium is trapped with good seals, and can be exploited commercially. Tanzania is supportive and will be happy if one or both develop a robust helium franchise in the country, or even if they get a good discovery and pass that on to a deep pockets multinational oil and gas company like exxon or total, or to a big industrial gas supply company like linde or air equipe.
Yes there are steps to get to 200 mmcf/day that will take 12-18 months.
BUT the path from 60 mmcf/day to 90 mmcf/day at Cascadura is very simple, just gradually open the valve on the Cascadura Deep well while monitoring it closely as the formation cleans up. That should happen within at most a few months with ZERO additional investment. Adding another 30 mmcf/day is huge. That alone adds 3000 more boe/d and pushes that number over 13000 boe/d - when last week the entire company was producing 2000 boe/d. Ramping Cogo to 24 mmcf/day needs a couple of new well s and some modifications at Shell facility receiving the gas. But it is dry gas and the facility at Coho Pad and the existing gas pipeline to central block facility can handle it without modifications. Could be added early next year.
Then there is so much more that will be unfolding. Asset swap and finalization of bid round award/s. Royston on pump. Cascadura C pad wells, Coho development wells, Coora legacy commitment wells. Exploration resumes with Kokanee, Steelhead, Kraken.
Then Cacadura ramps to 200 mmcf/day after new wells, tie in, liquids pipeline, and some additional equipment at Cascadura facility. There is a lot to do but it is all designed and permitted and not that complicated. And that alone, with minimal risk and modest capital DOUBLES the size of company again and boosts production to over 25,000 bopd. Lots to come.
CCB - "I’ve been super positive on this until Lorna screwed up momentum! "
Think of how long it took to get a rig, get a drilling crew assembled, get the contract in place with Halliburton for well services, etc. Plus it increases the chance of success. Plus there is urgency on the timeline after this long pause. Tanzania government for one would like to see this moving faster. Plus Noble is moving ahead on a parallel path and the path to exploitation may be easier for first mover.
Lorna estimates they save 4 million pounds by drilling sequentially. That makes the positive impact of the secondary the same as sale of shares at 10P. Because of all that I am okay with it. Lorna might have screwed up momentum. She might have added fuel to the momentum. We will see soon enough.
The "casc fixed price zone" for natural gas is the entire Ortoire Block. The NGC also the right and also obligation to buy all gas produced on the block at that price, and to construct the gas pipeline to any discoveries. (I don't know if the have any obligation to help with infrastructure to a pad a mile away (like Casca C) since they had talked about "to the wellhead". But I doubt it since that gas is running through the same processing facility).
It does not apply to the asset swap or the Cipero Block when and if if those are finalized.
The production well at Casca C is not quite as simple. The pad is complete and the Star Valley Rig is sitting there ready to go. So in that sense it is a simple development well/
BUT they have to build a 1 mile pipeline to the main cascadura facility on the A pad, they have to add a separator and some other stuff to the facility, they may have to get the liquids feeder pipeline from Casca A pad to to the main oil line to the south completed. That will take 3 1/2 months and cost $4.2 million and likely more as that was the estimate in 2022.
Thanks for the mention of Pulsar Helium.
I live in Minnesota which is p[art of a NA mid continent rift valley with some similarities to the rift valley in Africa where they are trying to find primary helium. (Helium One and Noble Helium) . The rocks are a billion years old. So there are massive amounts of copper and nickel in MN (biggest undeveloped resource in the world) but probably will never be mined (blocked for decades in court mainly for environmental reasons). But in 2011 they were drilling a mineral exploration hole on the iron range west of Duluth MN and ran into a pocket of high pressure gas that had 10% helium (massively high level) with no hydrocarbons. They formed a private company called Pulsar Helium. They call this the Topaz project and are going to drill an appraisal well by end of this year. They just went public today listed on Toronto Venture as Pulsar Helium PLSR. (on TSXV). They start trading tomorrow and likely will eventually trade on OTC in US.
It would be too ironic if I was hunting for a primary helium mother lode in Tanzania and also Saskatchewan/Alberta (RHC and others) - and they found it in northern MN. The primary helium in Saskatchewan has much lower concentrations (.5 to 1.5%) Topaz has concentrations like some of the findings in Tanzania (mainly surface seeps and not yet proven in reservoirs with seals). 10% is huge. There would also be major advantages to a Helium source in US with the space companies and the ongoing efforts to bring more electronics manufacturing back to US. There are very strategic reasons to have a NA supply chain for helium and there may be incentives available (like there are in Saskatchewan).
Anyway I may put a tiny bit of speculative money in PLSR - and for sure I will follow that drill. Drilling for primary helium is also very ecologically sound - no methane to vent or flare. Carrier gas is usually almost all nitrogen. Sometimes there is a little CO2 which is not toxic and in small amounts. There can be traces of hydrogen. They have already shown that the high pressure gas at Topaz is not flammable. (so no hydrocarbons).
Anyway most helium comes from extracting tiny amounts from massive natural gas operations in Qatar and in Russia. I have been investing in primary helium - in Africa and Saskatchewan and have even followed the Holbrook basin in Arizona with dismal DME. But maybe it is in MN. Under my nose. And I do not think there are significant environmental barriers to exploit it, if discovered.
...is "the drilling crew is fully assembled and contracted" - and the share price would have gone up. But I guess that is still in process.
Everyone was looking for one little nugget of new information showing progress. And there really wasn't anything new. It is what it is. We need a discovery well as the next step. Hope it happens.
Helium One is poised for successful drilling campaign. Lorna is doing a good job for sure. My only worry is they have very little money and thy share count has steadily risen during the time I have owned this. Now over 800 million shares. That tends to blunt any steep rise in share price. I have not made a lot of money on pre-production microcaps when share counts have gotten over a billion. It might be better if after discovery they could do a JV (perhaps with an off-take agreement) to fast track production rather than selling huge shares at prices that do not reflect true value. Of course it would be best if they could sequentially sell a small number of shares (maybe 10 million at a time) at ever higher prices as the value proposition proves out. That is how the capital markets work best and substantial funds in increasing amounts can be raised if the share price is moving up smartly.
Flat for years. Then one fantastic uptrend year starting June 2020 and ending June 2021. Then the absolutely brutal relentless slide since that point for now over two years. We have been living that daily.
I can't imagine what impetus could turn this ship around. The billion share count makes it like an aircraft carrier when trying to turn it around, and the momentum in the current (down) direction is just so powerful.
I thought they said before the rig was in Dar Es Salaam when they bought it and they recently trucked it out to the staging site.
But Mike Williams on the interview today said it came from Kenya and there were lots of details with the long move of the rig with border crossings, power lines, other stuff.
Agree with your general message that there is nothing to do but wait for the RNS which will come in its own time, hopefully soon.
But you should listen to the whole January 5th presentation again. Not only did he say this will be a totally different company in 2 weeks at the very beginning (it was obvious they had expected gas by end of June hence the schedule date), he also said "ten days" twice more referring to hook up and commissioning and first gas, though not necessarily to full initial flow rates of 60 mmcf/day. No one asked Paul to say in two weeks once and in ten days twice. Like it or not he did set some expectations that things would progress very quickly. Factor in several years of missed deadlines and delays in getting cascadura into production and there is reasomn for a little agitation from those who have follwoed the whole story
My own take is that the early timelines uderestimated what would be necessary to get the two wells on line. Then came the decision to get approval for the whole field development, a good decision that was encouraged by the government. Then came an underappreciation for that task and delays iin getting the approvals that were needed. Then came the final approval of the revised EIA/CEC submission on August 16, 2022. So we are less than a year from when construction of the facility began in earnest, and the parallel NGC project with the 20" pipeline to the Poole Valley valve station was also getting started.
However TXP had not been sittling idle until August 16, 2022. They had been sourcing long lead items including separators from Canada and vapor recovery unit compressors from Texas and other local fabrication including the condensate tanks. They were also spending a lot of money as the size of the facility was positioned to ultimately process 200 mmcf/day of gas from the whole field (double what they would have gotten from the first two wells). Having a field plan insured they could ramp the production to 200 mmcf/day and also replace any depletion by bringing on additional wells insuring steady production from Cascadura field for a decade and likely two or more decades.
Meanwhile as costs for a big facility mounted (I will be interested in final accounting of total cost) covid increased costs and interest rates soared and capital markets became constrained with borrowing costs punitive.) They also had made an improtant strategic decision to bring the Star Valley Rig in paying a million in mobilization costs and accepting a 120 day/ year drilling minimum for 3 years. That rig had to be parked most of the time because cash flow from Coho was late and disappointing and the massively more important cash flow from Cascadura field was delayed into 2H 2023.
Well we are in 2H 2023. Cash is about to flow. The Star Valley Rig is on the fully constructed Cascadura C pad (also some costs there) raring to go back into action. Production and revenues will ramp quickly and fund everything