Member Info for scotsgent1943

I believe that too.

Maybe a lift on July 6th. on the final day of the index funds forced buying, then a drift down over the lock-up periods unless some 'Elon news catalyst' occurs.

I noted that SMTs highs came weeks before spcx Ipo date, so much 'selling on the news'. Maybe a useful signal for the future

Anthropics IPO, (when it happens), I guess, will be a positive catalyst for SMT and with it's evidenced based 1 trillion value will lift the SP of SMT. ?

Spcx futures recoverering.

SMT SP following suit.

Currently!

Having passively held for 5 years I am minded to be a little more active!

****

So....Is this a stupid idea?:

1). Watch the SMT SP up until and at 4.00pm on July 6th. (the final hours of the enforced Nasdaq inclusion).

2) IF SMT's SP has climbed, (no, not in exact tandem with Spacx), but at least in sympathy and gives a healthy spike. Then sell!

3( Assume a period of drift of SMT through a few months of lock-up uncertainty and assume that the Anthropic IPO date remains mute. Then buy back sometime into this drift at a lower price to my sell.

I am not obliged to do anything until/unless I see a big spike prior to the Nasdaq inclusions and I must make a judgement if this is worthwhile , if no rise, no action.

Of course, if during July and August SMT takes off, then that's the risk, if Anthropic announces before I can buy back, then a Fomo event might lock me out.

So my assumptions are: SP rises to an apex on July 6th. (and if it doesn't, I do nothing).

SMT SP will drift down over July August, (despite buy-backs).

I will buy back prior to Anthropic announcement creating upward movement.

The whole thing depends on a decent, measurable spike on July 6th. If I am not happy with that then it's no go! 😊

Or is it just a VERY stupid idea! 😊

Lordloadsoflolly,

Thanks! I see that now!

The buy-backs are an attempt to stabilise, but the market dictates.

I'm learning every day!

I assume the Spacex Nasdaq inclusion period which ends I think, on July 1st. might perk up spacex SP a bit and maybe SMT too?

Ahhh!

Indeed you are correct!

Apologies! I missed the "Post IPO" 🥴

Https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/18/the-average-spacex-buyer-post-ipo-is-almost-under-water-after-two-day-slide.html

CNBC reports that the average retail investor is virtually underwater on their Spacex investment.

SFH300,

I sent a few questions to Ai 'Claude'.

Take it or leave it, but is has a logic.

I have condensed it down to it's basic form.

**

The FOMO on SMT holding Spacex caused the share price to rise over the months prior to the Ipo.

Just prior to the Spcx IPO, the one year 'consensus' was 1730- 1940, (that what it says!!), I guess propelled by the excitement of future Spacx and later; Anthropic IPO's.

People then sold 'on the news', just before the IPO date. SMT lost it's proxy route into Spacx on the IPO, people could buy direct

To compound this, the volitility, value doubts and lockout clauses of Spcx as well as a future SMT AGM in July, where some adjustments to SMT's processes may be decided, has caused more uncertainty.

But there is good news.

A 'golden cross' confirmed and a long term 'cup and handle' if they happen, may get propel the share back to 1533. and potentially 1600.

SMT has plenty of cash and is undergoing regular buy backs when the share price approaches

1400 per share to prevent a dip becoming a rout. You can see this on the volume history each time they intervene, the last time was Friday.

ANTHROPIC

What ever time their IPO is confirmed, again the SMT price should rise, there will also be a rising FOMO. However, Anthropic should be a different 'kettle of fish' since it is already a huge earner and a very successful company, less speculative than Spcx.

Only 2.7% of SMT, but a far more secure, long term investment with less volitility and maybe less negatively effected by any lock-out restrictions.

So....I will hang on for now, buoyed by buy-backs if the 1400'ish level comes along and SMT jumps in. Also hope the Anthropic market emergence on and before IPO has a beneficial effect.

This is just the briefest summary of the Ai response, take it or leave it, I am sure I will have missed some stuff. It's possibly/probably BS!

As for NAV....well, whatever; discount or premium, I don't observe it moving the share price much day to day, either way. In my ignorance, and since I am a long way from investing more, it is fairly academic for me, though useful for anyone investing further, I'm sure.

I understand completely!

£32k in vested 5 years ago by me, I watched it halve and then eventually saw a small profit a few weeks ago, but today, now gone!

The rote that "it's a long term hold" is wearing thin, since I am sure I could have found a better home for my cash over 5 years patiently holding.

Its contra- behaviour towards it's 'big earner'; spcx is robbing me of whatever confidence I had.

So....I will continue to hold until the spcx lock-ups, etc. perhaps let things settle things down and reappraise.

Of course, I realise that some folks who bought in early or at the right price have done well, so I am just speaking from my personal perspective.

It's true the performance seems somewhat counter intuitive.

However, if you believe in charts, then the 'handle' on the 5 year 'cup' is becoming a textbook development!?

But, I know 'nowt! 😊

I hold 32k in SMT. Bought 5 years ago, watched it almost halve then recover, currently £2.5k in profit.

I'm happy to be in it, but I would like to maximise any uplift from the Spcx IPO and be a little more pro-active about it.

I'm considering the following strategy.

1) Hold all to 2 days before IPO, cash in my profit as a hedge against some kind of Spcx failure and crash.

2) Set up a limit order to sell half only if the SMT price spikes to a large amount, (maybe a 20% increase on the pre-ipo price the day before).

Since SMT won't trade until the morning after the USA IPO it's unlikely to catch a day one crazy, irrational rise, but seems to be worth a punt?

If this fails, (and it probably will), then there is a second possibility if the tracker funds have to enter Spcx after the 15 day (or whatever) restriction period. Probably another limit sell with a figure which is perhaps more realistic.

If these all fail, then I still have my small top slice in the bank and continue to run with SMT.

Will then make some decisions prior to the 3 or 6 month lock-down expires.

Is this a completely stupid plan or is there any merit at all?

All comments welcome 😊