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Today's Profit warning blamed overcapacity in the European aircraft sector and corresponding weakness in winter revenues due to weakness in prices. If Ryanair is struggling, surely there will be a knock on effect to the fares pricing for competitors such as Thomas Cook Airways?
Yesterday Donald Trump said he would 'devastate' the Turkish economy if the Turks attacked the Kurds in Syria. This is 'code' for applying economic sanctions against Turkey, and undoubtedly friends and allies of the US would have to tow the line. This doesn't bode too well for those who are planning a holiday or have booked a holiday to Turkey with Thomas Cook or anyone else. Let's hope it doesn't come to this.
Does anyone know where I can find out current European Tungsten APT Price for free on the internet? Metal Bulletin charge a fee to subscribe. Investors should watch this price every day as it is a key metric. I am worried it is on the decline due to a slowing Chinese economy. Things could be so different in six months time.
Easyjet now advertising their sale for flights and HOLIDAYS on prime time TV. Easyjet is a new entrant to the holidays market, I have looked at their website which is professional and comprehensive. I recall that the company hired a new executive to grow the holiday business. Sadly more competition from a big boy for Thomas Cook.
Tui (Thomsons) now have a sale on for internet bookings. Offer is £100-£150 off £1000 holiday spend. This is not normal at this peak time for bookings. Price war is brewing.
Closer examination of Thomas Cook's website shows over the Christmas period they have been offering generous discounts for holidays booked online, namely £75 off £800, £150 off £1500 and £300 off £4000 holidays. Is this normal at this time of year? Looks like a price war is starting (as mentioned earlier in the week in The Daily Star.) Any ideas anyone how Thomas Cook will fare in this environment?
Been watching main segment on Sky News. Report on 'risks' of booking a holiday after 29th March 2019 due to Brexit.
If people take this onboard, does no favours to Thomas Cook as only takes a few percent of people to change their behaviour to affect a marginal business like Cook's.
Moody's downgraded Thomas Cook debt overnight. If it wasn't for Director buying, the shares would have been down another 5 pence at the open due to Moody's downgrade. Perhaps the Director overted a tragedy.
Berenberg have a 12p target price and 'sell' rating on the stock. They also rate it as 'uninvestable' due to risk of a cash call. According to Financial Times website.
Dart Group which operates as Jet2.com and sells a lot of package holidays, and is a direct competitor to Thomas Cook had their interims on 15th November 2018 and had a mild future profit warning due to fuel and staff costs and also the uncertainty of Brexit on bookings. Their shares fell over 15% on the day. This is not a de-ramp just pointing out conditions in the industry.
Closer study of today's Tui pre-close trading statement reveals they have taken a EUR70 million 'hit' from the collapse of the Turkish Lira. As I have said the Turkish business at Thomas Cook is considerable (go into a shop and see how 'thick' the Turkey brochure is) so they should also have a considerable 'hit'.' I don't believe this has come our yet as there was no mention of it in Cook's own pre-close statement a couple of days ago. I believe we will have to wait till the financial figures are released at the end of November to find this out.
Tui (Thomsons) pre close statement due Thursday 27th September. Whatever they say, good or bad will have an impact one way or another on Thomas Cook share price.
I told you so!!!
Still two bearish factors haven't been addressed yet;
1. The collapse of the Turkish Lira by 40%. The Turkish business is considerable so there may be writedowns when the financial results come out at the end of November.
2. If we get a Brexit 'No Deal' then at present aircraft cannot fly over Europe.
Good luck all!!
See comment made 30 minutes ago on S h a r e p r o p e t s .They say 8 pence too high!
DYOR.
Bearish factors that haven't been sorted yet!
1 Death of couple on holiday in Egypt.
2.Any possible slowdown in trade over the Summer due to heatwave at home.
3.Collapse of Turkish Lira by 40%.The Turkish business which is considerable could face writedowns.
4.At moment, a Brexit no deal will mean aircraft cannot fly over Europe.
Hoping there will be some clarification on all this from trading statement at end of the month.
Looks like Vin is piling on pressure for large independent shareholders to agree to rule 9 of takeover code or lose everything. The alternative to the shares being suspended is dilution at 2.5p, you have to remember the Hill family bought in a couple of years ago at the equivalent of 20 pence or 2 pence before the 10 to 1 share consolidation. This is a big 'hit' to take.
Good news that cost reduction has now reached £1.0m. Company says it is 'critical' that Vin Murria comes on board. They must surely have an option 'B' If only I had a crystal ball!
I suspect Octopus nominees is a holding company for Matt Cooper's 16.8% shareholding that has recently been topped up due to the recent issue of equity to him, plus there may be other small shareholders in the Octopus nominee system which on aggregate brings the total up to the 18.69%. In summary nothing major has happened!
Could be that deaths in Egypt have been caused by insect/creature bite or sting poisoning that has its habitat in the hotel or come from the desert at night .This possibility has not been picked up by the media but is probably most likely cause??
Large buy of 203 964 shares at close 16:35.