If you would like to ask our webinar guest speakers from WS Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund a question please submit them here.
I thought I had seen it all but this has shocked me. I previously had a rule where I invested 1% of my portfolio in a single share with a max additional 1% to average down and no more than 10% in individual stocks with the balance in trackers. I have cut those numbers by 50%. It has also made me check out trackers more and they can be pretty sexy as can Investment trusts trading at deep discounts. Gold ETF's, Biotech, emerging markets ,infrastructure , Value socks eg UBS FTSE RAFI developed 2000, equal weight S&P. India. COPL hurts but we can all learn from it. GLA
Lots of posts about FTSE100. Great that people realise that diversification is crucial to any investment strategy but there is a whole wide world of indices to track and it is an intellectual challenge deciding which to go for and which to avoid. FTSE100 up less than 4% this year whilst S&P 500 up nearly 30% . Others are up far more , others are negative. You can track sectors (eg energy and health) , buy gold EtFs and/or focus on countries eg India. You can even play asset classes eg gilts (long, medium or short duration) and reits. So in contrast to some of the comments by certain posters real investment has little to do with the likes of COPL. This was always a punt with money you could afford to lose. Proper investment is about research, tax and diversification. Enjoy.
I was trying to do a back of an envelope calculation of assets minus liabilities (excluding the oil). I got to circa 100m for plant etc and circa 70m for creditors/loans etc. The gas I believe was at one time valued at circa 50m and the oil? Well anyone’s guess on the oil. Numbers have been so vague that I am unable to be accurate but my conclusion was that even in a fire sale it must be worth more than the current 2-3m mcap. I am holding but would welcome anyones more accurate guesses.
Doc, the ineptitude of our team is to their eternal shame. There are other operators in the region extracting commercially. Buying the company outright and thereafter not having to tolerate our clowns would I am sure be attractive to someone. The JV partner clearly thought our team were clueless. PS don’t you just hate de-rampers!
Sp says mcap only 3.3m. Even in a fire sale it has to be worth more than that. Consider what we paid for CUDA. I have switched from optimism to pragmatism. From here 3 0r 4p would be a result. It would get me half my original investment back. I simply do not believe this is worth nothing. A major with deep pockets and know how could surely make decent money here whilst not being prepared to do work with our existing team. GLA
Our mcap is £3m. We have seen fire sale prices before - like when we bought CUDA at bargain knock down rates. The dream for me has gone but the pain may yet be mitigated. Aside from financials my concern remains around waxing - the analalogy is a furred up artery. Cold weather exacerbates the problem. I will continue to hold.
I am not smug. I have learned through bitter experience. I am fed up with COPL and very angry. But this was always a high risk gamble. If you lose your shirt down the casino you have to take responsibility. Investing is not gambling. Others here have the same learning to do that I had and normally it takes a loss like this. Mine was Angel mining. A gold mine. They did their research with gold at circa $400. You would think that at $1500 a monkey would make money but they went bust. A lot like here. You look at the size of the oil reserve and the mcap and you think surely this has to be worth more than this …but here we are. GLA
Actually this is not investing. This is gambling. I have lost in total 2% of my portfolio on this and despite today my portfolio has hit an all time high today. Long before recent price action this had dwindled to circa 0.25% of my portfolio so recent moves have been more than offset by action in the rest of my portfolio. Investing is about diversification and tax efficiency. I hold 90% in trackers and only 10% in individual shares. It keeps me sane and means I sleep at night. A 60/40 equity and bond portfolio is recommended for a reason. So, I had a gamble. I am very angry at what has happened here but I am financially fine. GLA
People that invested immediately following JV failure have lost 75% in 2 days. Thank god bitter experience and discipline stoped me exceeding my 2% maximum investment rule. This is toast. We have all lost out on the dream but surely it is worth more than the current mcap. I have always wondered if the waxing problem had been solved…clearly not!
Glad I kept my discipline and didn't average down yesterday!
The speculation as to the cause of the JV being terminated is inevitable but normally people know things. Also they would have known that the SP would tank in the absence of a positive explanation. Accordingly if there was something positive to say I suspect it would have been said. For me it is all about the production numbers now. I just hope that waxing is not an issue. Fortunately since the initial investment was only 2% of my portfolio and has long since tanked I am therefore not fussed. The broad based rally in Bonds and equities still means my portfolio is at a high . I hope that others here are similarly placed whilst being genuinely sorry for the balls deep brigade. GLA
Investing requires discipline. I wanted to average down but I have a rule initially invest max 1% of portfolio and only another 1% max to average down. This rule is the result of bitter experience. Some here are balls deep and for them today is terrible. For me it is just annoying. GLA
Doc I am not super rampy and can read both positives and negatives and make up my own mind. This is a very high risk stock due to events happening behind the scenes that we are not party too. But to use SXX in the context of COPL ( for anyone who knows about SXX) is a pretty poor choice. I am long here with a B/E of 7.5. It is 2% of my portfolio so I can afford to be relaxed. FWIW I believe this has every chance of swinging into profit but am not even going to guess at a potential SP.
FWIW this is nothing like SXX which required a huge feat of engineering and a huge capital injection with years before 1st production. In contrast this is already producing and the upfront need for capex prior to uplift in production is a pittance in contrast. Pathetic de-ramp.
What the posts prove is that the risk ‘reward potential here is massive. Black stout is suggesting a potential 300 fold increase. A 5 to 10 fold increase would see many holders here back in the black. I don’t believe that I have every held a share with such potential but it is very high risk. My own hopes are less optimistic with an MCAP of circa 250m. Either way fingers crossed.
FWIW I am concentrating on the mcap vs the assets as opposed to the SP. 16m reflects a fire sale. I think that we have paid a high price for Art deliberately doing minimum maintenance to buy CUDA cheap and being greedy. The wells have taken longer to turn around than he thought leading to wonga finance. If we can get production to going concern basis and beyond then our JV partner will then pay a fair rate. Deals of this nature do take a lot of time. A simple question. What is the value of proven OIP? Even at £1 a barrel the mcap would soar and with it the sp. My B/E is circa 10p which only relates to a MCAP of circa 90m so yes I am underwater but I am pretty relaxed ( This is 2% of my portfolio). GLA
To a large extent I am more interested in our MCAP than our current SP. We potentially have $1bn barrels of oil but what is the value? Basically it is down to how fast it can be extracted and the cost. In terms of discounted cash flow a barrel of oil today is worth far more than a barrel of oil in 40 years time. Our issue is we are short on cash, have had waxing and pressure issues and are not producing oil fast enough to breakeven hence the financing which has decimated the sp. The million $ question is can we get to B/E through increased flow and then beyond. If so then a major could also do so. The difference is that they would be able to finance a massive increase in wells such that the oil is extracted far quicker. The increased of extraction instantly increases NPV and that is the value of the JV. Money and increased extraction rate of oil.
So here we are today on the cusp of news which is actually make or break. If we can get above B/E oil flow then there will not be a fire sale and a JV partner will pay a fair price. Our Mcap is circa 15m. It could easily be many multiples of this if production increases and we get the JV. For me this is binary we either fail and get very little or we multi bag. I see the odds as 50/50. You don't normally get the opportunity to multibag with a 50/50. Good luck all
Transhaven, I am a NED! We need credibility and technical know how. The right NED will bring precisely that to the table at a fraction of the cost of a full time ED. A NED does not execute (perform the role). However, a NED will help formulate the strategy, check it is robust and then hold the executives whose job it is to carry out the strategy to account. A NED will kick the tyres. IT would be a foolish CEO/board to call in an independent NED who knew the business inside out if they were acting inappropriately, and that is why a respected NED brings credibility.