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Nom, not sure about “should interest some” - it should interest everyone with an investment here.
There has been a lot of talk about “personalised” vaccines. Even professor Ottensmier mentioned them in the Scancell news story even though Scancells approach is non-personalised. There does seem to be a consensus amongst the scientific community that personalised treatments are the way forward.
Which makes the article so interesting. BioNTech who are pursuing the personalised route, state that they are also looking at off the shelf treatments since many cancers have common traits. That is quite an endorsement of Scancell’s approach IMO.
TF,
I'm sure violindog wasn't suggesting vulnerable to a bid at 15p. But when the sp sinks so long, a bid at a premium may be lower than many of us expect or hope. Four times current price would only be 60p.
You say there are enough canny characters around to stop this happening. Not canny enough to prevent a slide to a bargain basement sp.
LL,
"For me, this means that a straightforward fund raise is already off the table. "
A number of people have made this point but as Chester points out, if it was a new investor it wouldn't be an issue. If Redmile did want a piece of the action, they could take up to 30% of the new shares without hitting the threshold.
Jamboian,
What large holding?
If someone had bought at 16p a few days back, a 25% profit in a matter of days is pretty good. So taking profit is never an "odd time".
Familiar pattern regarding the price though. Stock up with cheap shares and get a good mark up on Monday.
Konar,
"One thing I am certain of, after many years invested in Scancell, is they rarely do what you expect them to do"
Similar to when Dick Fosbury approached the bar I guess. And far from being a flop, set the standard for all that followed.
Krafty,
The BioNTech valuation is underpinned by actual sales of their Covid vaccine. Yes, they are competing in the immuno-oncology space but that is not where the market cap comes from so not really a fair comparison imo.
Ratty,
No. The revenue figures are facts. Vulpes use those figures and go through a series of what if scenarios. This is exactly what I have been doing for years. It is up to the individual to use the "what if" scenarios they feel are likely/possible.
So if you think Scancell will grab 100% of the market and make 100% net profit, you can easily get to some eye watering valuations. I choose to use more conservative estimates.
Ratty,
"Surprising that nobody has dismissed Vulpes' potential income forecasts as 'mad ramping', even though it is quite in tune with inanaco's expectations."
Tbh, when I started reading the Vulpes report I thought it was very Inanesque.
But I don't think there has much disagreement on the "revenue potential" - the market value of the Scancell targets is undeniably billions of pounds.
Interesting, Vulpes haven't attempted to translate this into an estimated share price. This depends on many variables that are impossible to forecast - market share, royalty, gross profit, net profit, further dilution etc. So rather than predicting a fanciful £8 per share, Vulpes have merely stated the improved chance of success and growing target market would result in a "tick-up" in the Sp or give a "Philip" to the sp.
Chester,
Yes, very positive but a more "real world" assessment than TD.
TD use a formula based on risk. So they only ascribe 15% of the value of Moditope as they only give it a 15% chance of success. Some of the other products have even lower chances (according to them). Combined, they come up with 29p (fully diluted)
Vulpes have taken a different approach: This is what Scancell would be worth IF SUCCESSFUL.
This seems to have caused a bit of a stir. Imagine what a stir there would be if we had confirmation of success!
Bermuda,
I too have reccd your post.
I do appreciate and acknowledge the tremendous contribution RG has made to Scancell.
My comment was tongue in cheek, based on a quote by I can't remember and not even for this forum.
Apologies for any offence caused.