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It’s a bargain because the LSE is an utter embarrassment. It’s a poorly regulated, crusty, Luddite-ridden exchange.
When (amongst many other shortcomings) nefarious characters like boatman and co. can put out O-Level quality short reports to manipulate the market for their own self-interest, you know you’re in a market not worth being part of.
Five years ago, the majority of my portfolio was LSE listed, now only ARB is LSE-listed. The LSE will descend into irrelevance and be overtaken by Frankfurt in the next 20 years - and good riddance.
The sooner ARB delists from the LSE and OTCQX, and retains a sole listing on NASDAQ, the better.
This month’s numbers are good, and I suspect a decent proportion of the uplift is due to ZCash appreciating during the month.
With these numbers, I think the extra 310PH was installed late in the month, so there should be another sizeable uplift next month.
Hopefully, Argo will be able to get the remaining ~100PH installed early this month too which would be a decent bonus.
I’d really like to see some incremental hashrate increases each month over the next few months too; there will be S17s available on the secondary market, whilst they’re challenging to run they can still generate some income and then be shifted to Texas.
Two pieces of news that could make ARB explode:
- Bought lots of S17s or T17s at good prices
- ePIC SHA-256 miner announced and a big order placed.
I’m not expecting ePIC to develop a cutting edge machine, just something that is good value for money - and uses an old process mode that isn’t facing major supply shortages.
That deal with ePIC has been a major disappointment so far.
Likely just MARA (the SEC investigation) and RIOT (mediocre earnings) money migrating into better value miners - ARB was so ridiculously undervalued that it’s the clear choice.
If the UK can get its act together tomorrow I can see the next few days being explosive. More money flowing to ARBK during normal market open, short covering, FOMO.
As usual, the musty old LSE will likely disappoint.
Just to clarify, Gary Gensler said all crypto projects, with the exception of Bitcoin, appear to be securities.
However, given recent comments from the FED and SEC, I can’t see s spot ETF being approved until the next bear cycle.
The miners should really capitalise on any news re this though; there’s a huge amount of capital waiting for this ETF. If the miners can make a convincing argument, at least a small proportion of this capital (still a huge sum) would likely flow to the miners.
Tech in this field is continually improving.
2023 will see 3nm chips, which theoretically could improve hashrate by 30% for the same energy usage.
The S19 XPs will, very quickly, be outclassed by the the true next-gen rig which will probably be announced next summer (the S20).
By that point, I’d guess the crypto winter will be in full swing, so prices would likely be relatively low. So probably best waiting for the S20 and buying lots of these in advance of the 2024 halving.
I thought the amendment protected miners from the more stringent tax requirements; there was a desire not to penalise the miners as they sustain Bitcoin and the security of it.
This is positive for the miners as this tax will increase the relative ‘cost’ of BTC for many, therefore miners become relatively lower ‘cost’ due to being exempt from the more stringent tax requirements (essentially no change).
Also, another beneficiary of regulation of Bitcoin is likely to be ZCash which is secretive by design. If there’s an intention to drive ill-gotten wealth out of Bitcoin, there’s a good chance much of this wealth will flow into ZCash - which is good for ARB.
Thanks for this; some interesting findings.
Just to pick up some of the points made by others (and I don’t have the time to post the sources, but Google these and I’m sure you’ll find plenty);
- DMG have done a small-scale study into the effectiveness of liquid-cooling and found a ~20% reduction in electricity costs for the same hashrate. The report suggested this was a modest reduction, and could be significantly higher.
- RIOT (and Argo too) have been working with one of the big ASIC manufacturers (I think it was Bitmain) to develop machines that are compatible with immersion. I’d guess similar with EPIC too.
- I think the whole power set up in Texas could be expanded on as a topic; particularly how the power arrangements will work. Argo will be purchasing electricity for ~0.02$/kWh, and if/when the grid needs power, they will be able to forego their power supply and be compensated ~0.10-0.20$/kWh for that power; not as profitable as mining Bitcoin, but this guarantees continued profitability even when mining operations are paused .
Texas makes complete sense, immersion makes complete sense, T17s make sense if their reliability issues can be resolved through immersion.
All creative solutions and good decisions for future profitability of the company. However, these don’t address the 3 elephants in the room;
- All of the above can be done by competitors; other miners who capitalised on the bull run will also set up in Texas, build even bigger immersion facilities, with the latest machines, all fully funded by selling the additional BTC mined pre-bullrun (which Argo didn’t mine) whilst it’s at a high.
- Texas’ hashrate is currently unfunded and we’re yet to see even a glimpse of a strategy for how this will be addressed
- The bull run will be coming to an end, or have ended, around the time when Texas comes online
Actually, ignore that. I actually calculated it for 800MW worth of machines at a cost of $40/TH which is what was mentioned in that Twitter thread.
Could be doable. I reckon it’d be a minor miracle if they could pull it off.
You can add me to that list too.
I’ve been incredibly bullish about ARB since invested a year ago… I was still incredibly bullish while Frank Timis was selling up, and through the BTC bear market during the summer.
But the botched IPO, the lack of coherent plans, the seeming inability to execute - I had to reduce my exposure here.
ARB was a top 5 Bitcoin miner at the beginning of the year; mentioned in the same breath as MARA, RIOT, HUT 8 and HIVE (nobody really knew much about the private miners then)… it has fallen well behind, at a critical time that would set it up for the future.
Yes, there’s money to be made (and I still have a position) but I think other miners will grow bigger faster.
I can’t help but feel like PW and his team have fluffed such a good opportunity..
I think that’s my point; the market is cautious - or just sick to death of the lack of movement.
There have been a few attempted break outs with significant volume, but these were followed by big sells shortly afterwards - essentially a rug pull,
These are probably shares bought for lower on one exchange and dumped for higher onto the other (probably all done algorithmically) . Vice versa also applies for short selling. This is probably only profitable for institutions or for people with very deep pockets.
This price action just puts people off - and people will look at Hut8, BitFarms, Hive, Riot is falling back into favour.
ARB is in a quagmire due to the LSE, NASDAQ and OTC listings.
This is why I was livid about the IPO - more so than the discount. This is what a mediocre rent-a-CFO gets you.
I don’t buy into the manipulation argument generally.
But ARB is ripe for institutional manipulation; listed on 2 exchanges and traded OTC. It’s essentially arbitrage, but with algos and/or sufficiently large holdings, institutions can easily push the SPs in a direction that maximises their opportunity for arbitrage.