Member Info for ronwoking

Kever

Your post means that you think you know far more about decommissioning costs than Prax as now Prax will be liable for the "huge" costs that you state will be forthcoming.

I suggest that that is highly unlikely.

In addition you seem to be unaware of

a) the legal requirement for provisioning in escrow of decommissioning costs that HUR and now PRAX will have on account and

b) that decommissiong costs can benefit from the accumulated tax credits that HUR had and that now Prax has.

You will in all likelyhood receive your 12.5p per DCU which plainly satisfies you.

BUT the issue here, is that it would have been far higher had HUR stayed independent and for you to pretend otherwise is ridiculous.

The profit earned by HUR is already much higher than that paid out by Prax and when the March 2025 dividend is counted will already be higher than 12.5 p with 3 dividends yet to come.

Sorry Kever but you are running out of room here.

Time to admit that the deal was ok for you given the evident risks in the venture , but , as things have turned out you will have left a lot of money on the table . No shame in that .....we all do it in the investment game from time to time.

I thought that it might be instructive to compare the payments received from Prax after the takeover to those that MIGHT have been received from HUR had the takeover bid been rejected. I think that the comparison conclusively reveals what a bad deal the take over was for HUR shareholders and that Kever's protestations as to what a good deal it was are entirely misplaced.

Take over.

HUR shareholders received 6.02p per share in March 2023 plus further payments based on 17.5% of HUR profits in September 2023 ....March 2024 and (based on AJ Bells estimate.) Sept 2024

Sept 2023 ....0.309p March 2024..... .617p Sept 2024.... .756

The total received to date including Sept 2024 is 7. 702p

That leaves 4 payments remaining with 2 due in 2025 and 2 due in 2026 to a maximum of 4.798p in total since the payout is maxed at 12.5 p under the terms of the take over.

No take over.....The initial payment of 6.02 p would ofcourse not been received but subsequent payments would have represented 100% of HUR profits rather than 17.5% under the Prax takeover.

The potential dividends received would therefore have been as follows.

Sept 2023....1.76p March 2024..... 3.527p Sept 2024 .....4.32p for a total of

9.609p which is already 25% higher than the payout received from Prax .

That ofcourse still leaves the 4 remaining payments in 2025 and 2026 which , if the well productivity is retained could amount to an additional 16p .The total would therefore be about 25p per dcu compared to the Prax maximum of 12.5 p.

In addition whereas the DCUs expire worthless in September 2026 ,well 6 may yet continue on producing oil.

It must be said that there are some imponderables here.

1) The tax credits.....I do not know to what extent the HUR tax credits have contributed as yet to HUR earnings or how they will contribute in the future.

2) The future productivity of HUR's producing well is a key unknown,but to date it seems to be holding up.

The decision by some shareholders to accept the Prax offer was entirely legitimate considering the well risks inherent in HUR and ofcourse whether the bid price represented an acceptable profit to the shareholder, but in the light of subsequent events it cannot be considered as a good decision since HUR and its shareholders would have benefitted from a significantly higher cash flow .If the March 2025 well results hold up ,then that difference will be in the order of 60% and depending on well performance and ofcourse the price of oil considerably higher.

Kever

I note that you have said that you do not post on ADVFN.

Have you ever looked at the posts of Bionictroller on ADVFN

His posts are almost identical in content and style to your own on LSE.

Still they do say that imitation is the sincerest form of flattery.

The board of Condor have made it quite clear that they do NOT consider themselves to be a mining company and do not have the expertise to be so. Hence the route of an asset sale .

If an acceptable price to Mr Mellon cannot be achieved I would expect the board to have a PlanB of which i would expect the logical choice to be ,a mine development plan.

Given that the capex involved would be between $120-150 million we can expect a major share dilution.

Given the current favorable gold market conditions ,a debt based financing would be preferable for the common shareholders , but the Nicaragua element makes that very problematic despite the commercial de-risking that has taken place.

Perhaps an expensive convertible debt financing might be arranged,but something has to break soon.

We all share the frustrations .

But when .....is anybodies guess.

There are 14 concessions covering the La India gold district of 649 KM^2.

Expiry dates of the concessions range from 2026 to 2044 with the greatest acreage being in the 2030-2044 range

The closest expiries are in 2026 and 2027 overing an area of 70.5 km^2

I have DCUs with Barclays,Lloyds and Interactive Investor. fund managers

All the DCUs are now in trading accounts.

The March profit share has been received in all accounts with the exception of Barclays.At the moment they are investigating.

This is not unusual.Barclays al;ways seems to credit cash receipts 1-3 days after the other fund managers.

Of them all II is the most efficient,

Condor are between a rock and a hard place. My guess is 25p.But then i am a professional pessimist

Nero 120.

nationalsation "ridiculous" I dont think so.Remember this is Nicaragua not the USA.

Ofcourse i do not have the details of all Condor's permits and licences, but any sensible authority granting such permits and licenses will have placed a time limit on the company for entering into meanful exploitation of the properties.

If Condor were to look likely to breech those conditions the govt would have a big stick to pick up the assets for very little outlay.

Condor can only manage that risk by getting the project underway (debt or dilution) or accelerating the sale of the assets by accepting the best offer they can get.

It seems increasingly likely to me that there will be no deal and that Nicaragua will run out of patience with having a major resource in the ground,but no one to exploit it.

So there will be an increasing likelyhood that Nicaragua will nationalise the assets of the company,having already given Condor plenty of time to get a mine under way.

Your guess is as good as mine as to what they will pay ...... if anything.

Mellon will need to come up with the cash to develop the mine ( with major shareholder dilution) or risk losing everything.

Investing in Nicaragua was always the major risk in this company.

Ofcourse I hope that i am wrong

I am puzzled by you saying that you bought HUR via a CFD.

A CFD contract does not involve the actual purchase or a sale of the underlying share.

As the name CFD suggests it is a contract that pays out on the difference in the price of the underlying share between its contract price and the market price at the termination of the CFD contract. The number of shares is only a reference point to calculate the gain or loss on the contract. The gain or loss is paid to....or paid by the investor. The investor never actually owns any shares.

Possibly IG re-designated the contract as DCUs when HUR shares ceased to exist but in a CFD you would never have"bought" shares in HUR and would not therefore have been entitled to any DCUs.

The dcu payment has arrived at my Lloyds trading account described as a corporate action not a dividend.

II paid it into my Isa account.

Nothing from Barclays yet.

I shall regard all the payments as originating from my ISA holdings of HUR and duke it out with the revenue if they query it.

DCU psyment received in my Interactive investor account on 29/9.Interestingly the payment was credited to my ISA account even though the dcu is in my trading account.

No sign yet of the DCU payment in my Lloyds or barclays accounts

The prax payment is based on profits from hurricanes uplift of oil.....costs and its sale price.If anything payments will fall over the next 3 years as the uplift reduces as the well productivity declines.I suspect that these payments will be far lower than the maximum quoted in the prax take over documents for the reasons above and the scope for prax to use creative accounting.There is little incentive for prax to invest in boosting hurricane profits over the next 3 years.After the 3 years is over its a different story as prax gets 100% of the returns.

Hank honest tom

just received the 0.83 cash payment and the prax dcus into my isa.

payments etc dated june 27, 6 days after the other isa managers put them through.

Hank honest tom

FYI Lloyds and II have each made the 3 cash payments and have allocated the DCUs into my Isas

Barclays as yet have only made the 2 dividend payments,but not the 0.83p purchase payment.

No sign of the DCU's either.

I have raised a query with Barclays, and am just short of a formal complaint to them and the regulator..

Not my first problem with barclays admin,but if this not solved very soon it will be my last.

They are hopeless

6.02 payments in ISAs received from II and Lloyds,but only the dividends of 5.19 from barclays.The cash consideration of .83 is missing. Dont know why.No DCUs yet.

For the record I was also opposed to the prax scheme but always felt that it was very long odds that the judge would find against it,given the law on voting.Still it was worth the effort.

But that fight is over and not worth expending any further angst.

In my view what we now have to be worried about is the labour parties evident hostility to NorthSea development which may well obstruct /delay Prax's plans to add to production.If so the prospects for the DCU payments diminish and as Prax/Hurricane are now private companies,the transparency of their accounting and communicationmust be questioned.

I would like to add my thanks and appreciation to senseman and others who put so much time and effort into trying to assist the individual shareholders against the BOD schemes going back to 2021.

As an aside... it has been clear that the governance on AIM listed shares is a disgrace and that the exchange is a wild west exchange.Most of us are content with commercial risk and even political risk,but governance risk is not something that I will accept.

I shall no longer invest in AIM listed shares as it is clear that the boards of such companies can do any thing they like to enrich themsleves at the expense of their shareholders without any comeback from the xchange.

On the brighter side,if PRAX are able to deliver the full 12.5 p return, the result is marginally ok.

Broom

Prax have undertaken to establish a matched bargain facility that will allow the DCU's to be sold to anyone.

I do not see Prax having much incentive to buy them out as their current arrangement sees them retaining the lion's share (82.5%) of HUR net revenue for 3 years and 100% thereafter.

On the other hand for investors confident in a 6.48p per DCU return over 3 years there must be a price that they would be prepared to pay for a DCU.

Bear in mind that after 3 years the DCU's are of zero value,so if I were to pay 2.48p for a DCU, a 6.48 return over 3 years is actually a return of 4p after accounting for the resulting zero value of the DCU itself.

A 4p return with zero capital return after 3 years equates to a rate of return of about 20 % pa ( not compounded) on my 2.48p investment.I have not accounted for the timing of the 6 monthly interim payments which would slightly raise the rate of return.

I feel that there must be a price that investors would pay.

Given the risks associated with the DCU's I suspect that a price around 2.5 p is probably about right....but who knows.

Whether a price about 2.5p would be acceptable to Crystal Amber is ofcourse another matter.

Broom

I agree.

But I suspect that you will get your DCU based cash return sooner than you expect as I do not see Crystal Amber hanging on for 3 years if they can get an acceptable price for their DCUs earlier.