Member Info for RockRed

Pathetic for sure, should focus on robust controls and the assets they have rather than chasing the next value-destroying deal. Cash flow generation always the key. At least, we supposedly don't have long to wait unlike previous suspension: "Savannah Energy PLC, the British independent energy company focused around the delivery of Projects that Matter, advises that its FY 2025 Annual Report will be released during August 2026."

August and everything after (one of the ten greatest albums of all time if you ask me; seeing the Counting Crows tomorrow night).

Also we were warned. It's the Projects than matter. Not the shareholders... Not putting more money here, hoping to break-even at one point.

Anybody has a fundamental view on why the shares are going down? Seems (Gimme) Wood got the cash from Sidara, still need regulatory approval but seems more like a formality than anything else. Should take 6 month. If you assume an event driven HF wants a 10% return (generous) the shares should be at 30 / 1.05 ie 28.6. By being at 23.40 they are basically pricing in an 18% chance deal not happening, assuming value without a deal is 0 (conservative). 18% chance of deal not happening seems high to me. Anybody has a fundamental explanation? Not non sense like drug taking or more sellers than buyers etc Much appreciated!

Howdent is that an email you sent to Sally? If that is the case, the end is missing. Has she reached out to you with a date for a talk with management in December? I am in the dark on the date despite my 2.58m shares...

Have they set a date?

Solentskier. What do you mean by "So just found on internet the deal is off!!!!". Seeing nothing online... The wait... The stress... Ah the joy of gambling...

Glad FutureHire is there and will tell us as soon as votes are counted. I can't believe some people think the shares are going up if No wins... Has been FCF negative for a while and next year is supposed to be positive but they have told us that for a couple of years now. As someone who owns 2.7m shares I would to see a counter bid or an "organic" rescue but realistically I think it is 30p or ouch that hurts...

Am in equity research (not oil). Could not go to the coffee morning so missed you...

Fair enough scotpak (BTW you use we a lot when speaking about Savannah so I would assume you are an employee?) on H1 FCF but then where is the investors' presentation that explains it all. Where is the updated P10 of the March 2025 presentation? Share price can go up a lot if we get receivables and arbitration for sure but that is outside of their control. What they control is execution: (1) investing in back office, financial department so we get audited account by a Big 4 and timely results; (2) investing in operations so we stop losing production from one year to the next and we get the extended production faster than years; (3) focus on costs so we get FCF and debt paydown. I have owned this company for four years now (entry point 11p in June 2020) and I can see the large potential but execution has been underwhelming unfortunately.

Who is malcy?

US$16.2m of FCF in 1H25. vs. US$144m of market cap is fine ie good eFCF but vs. EV of US$773m that is pants. So looks like a call on receivables and chad arbitration, two things they don't control. They need to focus on operations (including accounting). Should be their priority. Not chasing another deal with a complicated finance structure.

Well the fact that the accounts have not been certified and the fact that departing auditor has identified serious control issues that have to be remedied is news to me! And I was hoping that with so much new info, we have a new presentation and a call or coffee with shareholders.

So another two issues we did not see coming. 1) Another placing, dilution. If cash flow generation was so great, why dilute everybody again. 2) The 2024 accounts are not audited, certified because of significant control issue (reading the annual on that is scary). Management intends to address this but should not have happened in the first place and replacing a Big 4 auditor with a local does not inspire confidence at all. And then, it's not new, AK told us many times, but another acquisitions line up. Spending more money to get an extra room when the rest of the house is a complete mess does not strike me as wise or prudent. No idea where the shares go. There is potential but execution has been terrible so probably just for retail investors these days and long suffering ones are unlikely to put more money in (I was thinking of doing it, no longer). How do you get new people in when they don't communicate well? Where is the analyst/investor call or presentation after so much information?!? I don't know anymore...

So finally. Accounts are here even if the long press release makes no mention whatsoever of the 2024 accounts that are on the website. Strike that, there are several press releases. Another round of shares to family and friends at 7p but warrants cancellation and share buyback should mean we are not imploding like last time. That said where have they found that many people wanting to sell them 143,565,582 shares at 7p. That is £10m thrown towels so not everybody is on board. Will wait for research to be out to get new number of shares. Too much work. Refinancing looks like good news and the recent green energy stuff they bought for US$65.4m threw US$8.7m of dividend. Nice 13.3% return ut what is the tax rate on that and what is the financing cost of Savannah at the moment? US$94.1m of interest in 2024 for an average net debt of US$555m (just taking average of BoY and EoY). That is 17.0%! Gotta check the math... But looks much better than last relisting. Might go up tomorrow!

EGM on the 12th, you can vote until the 4th. You are voting on "APPROVE MATTERS RELATING TO THE RECOMMENDED CASH ACQUISITION OF JOHN WOOD GROUP PLC BY SIDARA LIMITED", "AMEND ARTICLES OF ASSOCIATION" and "APPROVE CANCELLATION OF ADMISSION OF ORDINARY SHARES TO TRADING ON LONDON STOCK EXCHANGE; RE-REGISTER THE COMPANY AS A PRIVATE LIMITED COMPANY UNDER THE NAME OF JOHN WOOD GROUP LIMITED". Good news is that accounts have to be published before October 31st or no deal. So will be able to look at account with a live share price before voting. To see whether it is indeed 30p or bust...

Bad news: Another 28d extension and it is August where auditors do not much so looks like end of September more likely than not.

Good news: "There is also commercial alignment on the headline terms of a stable platform arrangement with a shorter tenor extension which would take effect under the Creditor Scheme if the Possible Offer did not proceed and would provide a basis for Wood to develop and implement an alternative refinancing option, which would also be subject to the Creditor Scheme." Even if no bid, not going bust so arguably worth more than 35p on a continuing basis.

Overall, I would say quite positive despite the waiting game.

So US$135m for US$33m of EBITDA is 4.1x Consensus pre delisting was US$456m for 2024. That becomes 423. 4.1x = 1,734. Consensus net debt US$1,022m. That becomes 887 so equity value of US$847m or £628m (using 1.3485 GBPUSD). 692m shares = 91p. 35p is an absolute bargain but I understand their frustration. 5 months to publish accounts is pants.