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Grewber
Whilst the jury is still out on WN flow rates from the Kirkham Abbey.
Here are some recent facts from a Geol Soc Commemorative Volume late last year from the Vale of Pickering Gas, fields a little further north, i.e. Kirby Misperton, Malton, Marishes and Pickering.
Same Kirkham Abbey Reservoir of Dolomitized and Fractured Carbonates.
Porosity 12-13%
Permeability 0.5 -1.5mD
Gas in Place 172 bcf
Gas Recovered 30.3 BCF 1996-2020. (OGA website)
Peak Production 1996-2000 at between 1000 boe/day and 1500 boe/day averaging about 1250. (OGA website)

Anyone familiar with the state of current capital markets for O&G and the ESG agenda, will realise that non of the publicly listed majors will touch an onshore development asset (especially if its got an oil component) in this climate. Quite simply the grief and hassle of dealing with the investor, media and community negativity is not worth the effort for what would be to them an irrelevant asset. If they want gas for the area then theres several orders on magnitude available to them a few miles away at Easington coming in from Norway and the UK gas basin. The small caps have neither the capital nor experience to do this if its of a scale they have been hoping for. That leaves the well capitalised private players who can more easily ignore the media and negative publicity. Ineos is one (although they've retreated a little from UK gas production after the fracking debacle and their offshore assets haven't been exactly stellar performers) the others are the trading houses such as Vitol, Glencore, Trafi etc... anyone whose dealt with these types before will know they don't throw money at stuff, but they can transact where the political focus and media is too negative for the others.

Grewber...stop it, you know thats cruel.

"What clap trap! RBD are getting 15% on their loan - that's an excellent return and it shores up the original capital investment"
Yes thats true, but as HarryShang pointed out Corallian have no income other than further equity investments to repay the loan.
This can only be 1: converted into equity 2: cash settled following a further equity raise 3: Settled on the sale of the company or asset. It does tell you that nobody wanted to inject any further equity, and a loan was the only way of allowing Corallian to progress their plan. IF RBD hadn't stepped up with a loan what would have been the outcome for Corallian and also Reabolds existing £4.25mm investment? I'm sure this was the least worst outcome for RBD, else its a write off.

Mr Investment I don't disagree.
Egdon themselves have stated that the squeeze is the principal remedy for the "skin" issue.
The re perf may or may not have increased the flow above the original test as I've previously mentioned.
But folks speculating that its cleaning up day by day is simply unfounded.
This well will not clean up to the numbers folks expect without the squeeze, I've recently posted why they don't want to RNS, for the very good reason that it will be viewed out of context in terms of the overall plan by shareholders.

Rubey,
My Mistake, he is a councillor and was only Chair of the Committee.. nevertheless .
He may be what you might consider a "tree hugger", but he's a not a Green Party, Liberal or Labour councillor, he's a Conservative councillor, a group not known for their tree hugging agenda. So do you still think EY declaring a climate emergency is a good thing or a bad thing?

Quote "The field is currently producing circa 19 barrels of oil per day (“bopd”) from one of two production wells (FA-3). The second producing well (FA-1) is currently shut-in awaiting a workover. The field also has a dedicated water disposal well to reinject produced water into the reservoir for pressure support (FA-2). The field has suffered from a lack of investment in recent years. Egdon plans to enhance the cash flows and profitability of the operation by increasing production initially to between 30 and 40 bopd via low cost well interventions. It is planned to workover both the currently producing FA-3 and the shut-in FA-1 wells during 2017 by installing new tubing, pumps and isolating water producing zones."

Heid
what you say "Anyone recalling Fiskerton will know that flow rates steadily increased each day"
You really must check your facts (although I agree its not something you let get in the way of a good old ramp".
Egdon said this on the acquisition Fiskerton in July 2017:
<>
So the plan was to go from 19/day to 30-40/day.
The reality (from the OGA website): Since acquisition in July 2107 to mid November 20, total produced 20,000 bbls thats 16 bbls/day on average, highest achieved 26 bbls/day, lowest 9bbls/day. So not only is your "steady increase a load of guff", its perhaps highlighted not the best example of Egdons production planning and assessment prowess don't you think?

Heid
If you think that East Yorkshire declaring a climate emergency is great news, then I think you've just lost the commercial plot.
This simply means that any further approvals need by these folks will simply become more wrapped up in the local political agenda, as the chair of the Council said..." the council wanted to go beyond the “symbolic act” of declaring a climate emergency." what do you actually think that means? ? perhaps making sure its a meat free sandwich luncheon at the next meeting whilst they waive through any development plans for WN , (the chair of the council became a vegetarian during the review). Local politics is rife with partisan agendas and playing to the local audience, just see how long it went on at Wressle, 5 years of intransigent local councillors, this decision will certainly not speed up any approvals process...

SecretBluePrint.
As someone who clearly understands the business I think we know why they are not saying what the rates are at present.
The vast majority of shareholders don't understand how the business works and take at face value the what the company says. The issue here is that the company expects it to flow at 500/day after the prop squeeze (Its on Egdons website) because they believe that there is local formation damage around the borehole (skin), which meant that the original test
on the Ashover only flowed at 80bbls/day. The well is currently free flowing but of course its probably flowing at something less than 500/day (and probably closer to the original test) until they see what effect the prop squeeze has. Putting out a number now will simply cause the majority shareholders to think that they've failed to meet the 500 and attract selling, even though they are only half way through the process. Many shareholders are impatient flippers and just want news flow for the sake of news flow... the true test will be after the squeeze, if it flows at what they expect then it'll all be fine, if it flows materially less (300/day or lower) then there'll be an bit of an exit, less so for UJO as the main issue is really WN testing, but for EDR and EOG it'll be a bit of a difficult release...

GP you are of course correct wrt to spot prices.
However someone will need to make a decision on investing in late 21 early 22.
They will be guided on what can be locked in to protect their investment (forward sale) vs a reliance on the spot price, that is just that, the spot price at the time. I'm simply suggesting that 50p is too high for an investment decision being made in the next 12 months. Given that the project is highly sensitive to gas prices then the buyers confidence in gas prices in 24-27 will be the key issue. At 35p this is a non starter, as the NPV is £21mm. At 42.5p its 85mm, these are of course values for Corallians own position. If it is sold the buyer has to factor in the purchase price (which is in effect additional Capex, and so even at 42.5p the NPV will be quite a lot less than 85mm depending on what they paid. As someone familiar with oil and gas, you will also know that a factor often put into decision making on a development is p/i ratio, i.e. How much profit will I have divided by how much do i put at risk (investment). So if the numbers are p= 50mm and i is 140mm (24mm cash purchase @ 3.2/share plus capex of 112mm) then that would not pass muster in many if any company in the sector.

Gwynwin what are you on about?
This is just a repeat of what I said Egdon are saying, that the plan is to reperf and then squeeze, and that they don't expect the rate to be 500 until both have been done.

Persimmon
I think that a trade sale is the only option unless they (RBD) flip it into an existing struggling entity for shares.
My main issue is that the Victory project is not commercially viable from a risked economic perspective.
They state clearly that the NPV (not value) is £146mm at 50p per therm, £85mm at 42.5 p per them and at 35p its £21mm.
If you look here and see what the average forward price is for gas in 2024 onwards then you can see that 50p is just not going to happen, 42.5 is probably on the upper end of a reasonable yearly average... h**ps://www.erce.energy/graph/uk-natural-gas-futures-curve/

Gwywin, I'm afraid you do talk gibberish about the skins and the bungs. They are only allowed to produce from the Ashover.
"This is what Egdon say on their website" its pretty clear what the plan is...only following the Squeeze do they expect it to flow at 500...

"Workover operations prior to start of production will include reperforation of the Ashover Grit reservoir and a proppant squeeze to “unblock” the rock pores and perforations. The proppant squeeze is not High-Volume Hydraulic Fracturing – it is completely different in terms of scale, duration and purpose and for clarity there are no shale oil or gas formations in the area. The flow rate following the workover operations is expected to be 500 barrels of oil per day."

As you know the other assets are as yet unfunded, so to value you those would require funding (and hence dilution), the strategy is for other folks to pay to drill the wells and so avoid raising money to spend on drilling them, so far I don't think the company has ever achieved this.
Indeed the Moray Firth assets has had a large company walk away from it having reviewed it over a period of time.

From and RBD perspective their investment in Corallian on a sale looks like this, at the three prices they mention £3.2/£2.2/£1.5. (presuming the £1mm convert is repaid with coupon rather than swapped for equity)
Corallian @ £3.2, RBD Investment £5.25mm - Share of Corallian Sale £10mm - pre tax gain £4.75mm
Corallian @£2.2, RBD Investment £5.25mm - Share of Corallian sale £7.25mm - Pre tax gain £2mm
Corallian @1.5mm RBD Investment £5.25mm - Share of Corallian sale £5.3mm - Pre Tax Gain £50k
Seems the £1.50 may have been set to allow RBD to recover their investment.

According to RBD's published numbers.
They had invested £3.65mm for 34.9% of Corallian.
They then exercised Warrants at £2.20 for £600k to take that number to 36.9% for total investment of £4.25mm
at £2.2 the last fundraise values Corallian at just over £15mm based on 7.54mm shares in issue.
at £3.2 it would value Corallian, pre convert, at £24mm.
at £1.5 it would value Corallian and about £11.25mm
I believe that they have already written off most if not all the Wick and Colter Investments in the 2019 accounts (£6.9mm impairment) prior to licence relinquishment.
I presume the strategy is to either a trade sale or IPO of Corallian.
Given it is essentially a one asset company, then I'm not sure its IPO'able.
Assuming the company values itself at £3.2/share in due course (with OGA contingent approval of any development) then the cost to buy Corallian will need to be at least £24mm.
If the Capex is £112mm then a buyer will need to spend £136mm (£112mm capex plus £24mm purchase price) for an asset with an NPV range of 85-146mm.

Mr I
Bit of a foot in the mouth moment eh!
Agreeing with GP for the wrong reasons...
oops

Nice try Mr Investment... they are relevant for the current market valuation of onshore oil and gas reserves and resources made by a competent authority - D&M.
Perhaps you have some comparative numbers to share...rather than bluster and guff, having just put your foot in your mouth.

GP you know that, I know that, his hope is that there are people that don’t.
I think you misunderstood what GP was driving at...