Member Info for RNSTranslator

I should know what production rate we are at...regularly... we have no idea now... - depends what you mean by regularly, every day/week/month. I think they just told you its still 12k/day.

I should know why Lincoln can’t be tied back - There is no money to do this.

I should know why the well is too technical to drill .. -the current bore is in the wrong place to easily get to where the sidetrack needs to get to, costs more and carries a greater risk of failure.

I should know why we can’t go drilling - You do, it needs funding and there is clearly legal uncertainty about the influence the Bondholders have or may be triggered under the covenants (just read the CA update)

I should know if with the increasing Brent price we can pay the bond.. Yes you can if this price continues and production holds up, that is the whole point, the Bondholders want repaying, and rank ahead of the shareholders, the key question is how much is left in the till for further work after they're paid off.

Aren't you the Big Man...

Mr Investment.
We don't bribe them because its illegal and UJO have like all other listed companies has had to implement an anti bribery and corruption policy.
I'm certainly not from the woke brigade, but I do find you comments about "flats made out of deaf children" astonishingly insensitive and rather crass, perhaps on reflection you might want apologise for that!

Misconduct in public office is the only remedy (other than the electorate!) but its only going to be used again an elected official if the behaviour is tantamount to borderline criminal. Has some parallels with the current Scottish cluster fk about officials ignoring legal advice to drop a legal case and settle... fined yes, but I didn't read of any misconduct allegations.

The offence is committed when:
a public officer acting as such;
wilfully neglects to perform his duty and/or wilfully misconducts himself;
to such a degree as to amount to an abuse of the public's trust in the office holder;
without reasonable excuse or justification.

"If you actually think that any partner can just off load at will, you are very likely wrong"
Actually I'm not, the only mechanism available is to challenge the sale on the financial capability of the intended purchaser, which requires the seller to inform the other JV partners of the intended purchaser and the price and/or items of any sale once terms are agreed. but perhaps to put your mind at rest perhaps just ask the company, and see how/if they answer,
Does any partner in the JV require permission (or approval) from the others to explore a potential sale or actually sell their interest in WN?

Its all just made up Bllx.
Rathlin/RBD cannot buy UJO's interest without their agreement - FACT
Rathlin/RBD can if they wish sell their interest to whomever they like without UJO's approval - FACT
Likewise UJO can sell their interest without RBD/Rathlins approval - FACT
They could all agree to sell together - FACT
So if Rathlin/RBD are talking to someone else about a potential sale, they do not need to inform UJO. - FACT
Neither side can insist on being involved in any discussions that either side may be having - FACT
Its all bunch of conspiratory guff....

1/ Secure the AM/Bluewater contract - You mean sign up for another 3 years? if not what do you mean?
2/ Keep pumping Lancaster with higher PoO (don't worry about sidetrack / water injection for now (see 3 below) - thats what will happen in any case.
3/ Tie back Lincoln Crestal well to add production and lesson pressure on Lancaster carry - using who's money?
4/ Buy back some Bonds with free float available- I don't think they can do that in any volume if at all (But I haven't seen the contract)
5/ Plan and carry out a new Well after revised positive CPR - Using who's money?
6/ Sidetrack / Water inject Lancaster - Using who's money

I'll add a 7th to help/ Plant a forest of fast growing magic money trees on the deck of the AM to enable 3,5 &6 above

Appoint me as HUR Planning and Production Managery - Chocolate Teapot springs to mind....

"Add Hedge 10k boe at $63 now for 12 months to take out Oil Price risk ." If I was a bondholder thats exactly what i'd want them to do, locks in a greater chance of getting most/all of their money back..

Jonno41
Spot on. CA believe there is upside, because 1) its the only way to get a return as equity holders. 2) Not to think that, suggests they got this investment badly wrong...Their view on significant oil below the new the contact is frankly laughable.
Bondholders want to minimise risk and get their cash back, they always stand in front of shareholders for returns, and I suspect they have covenants to limit what the Board can do and spend money on, and have probably told the Board thats what they want, their money back, given the improved cashflow position. CA were sold a pup and now have no choice but to become activist tottery to stop the Bondholders taking whats left and leaving the shareholders with a near worthless shell.

Shed no tears said this “In my opinion, the words 'formation damage', would have had the doomsayers, of which there are many apparently, shouting it from the roof tops. “
Egdon the operator said this-
“As previously reported, flow rates from the Ashover Grit measured in the initial testing phase (80 barrels of oil per day (“bopd”)) were affected by localised near well bore formation damage (high “Skin” factor) and so are not representative of the flow rates that could be attained from this interval. “
Does this mean that Egdon are doomsayers...how does that work sheddy?

"Also ! There may be something else coming in my mind"
Yes you're right, its in your mind...
You're usually so keen to tell us all about the upside and how you and your mate Daaave are big buddies buy yet you don't want to share what else is coming (in your mind), you've researched it, but its secret?
Either you just make stuff up (99.99% chance)
or
You have insider information from Big Daaaave (0.01% chance) and you can't share it with us, wink, wink, nudge ,nudge, know what I mean...

Look the current situation is simply a product of this and the other co-ventures own making, combined with a shareholder base thats has a large proportion of flippers and punters. They (EDR/EOG and UJO) could have made it plainer that the process would take time and been clearer that there were a number of steps to get to their proposed 500 bbls/day. Its on Egdons website if you can find it but the main thrust of communication is via RNS...
All of which simply spoke of a"contrained" 500 bbls/day. Time frames are always shortened or implied to be less than what is realistic. WHY? Because they don't want to upset the shareholder base by being straight up, they want to maintain a positive spin on things...trouble is it always comes back and bites them in the @rse.
How many folks on this board would prefer the words in A (what they might have said) over B (what they actually said)?

A: "Our technical analysis has suggested the Ashover Grit could flow at upto 500 bbl.day, however this would likely require a number of steps, Firstly a reperforation to ensure the oil is free flowing, and to gauge how much of the formation damage can been overcome through the well being reperforated, and then depending on how the well cleans up this will likely be followed by a proppant squeeze as a secondary intervention to increase flow rates towards our target 500/day, this will require additional permitting the timing of which is not within out control. etc.. etc.."
B: "As previously advised, on current plans, the Company envisages first oil during H2 2020" and in the same release "..important step in the progress to first oil which WILL increase Egdon's production by 150 barrels of oil per day"
My Caps.
A is the realistic message, and B is what they want you to hear....

Malcy was always a big cheerleader for HUR and an old mate of Dr T. So it’s hardly surprising he’s ****ging off the new mgmt...perhaps he forgets how much he originally promoted what turned out to be this basket case. Malcy knows a lot about PR and film flam very little about the real nuts and bolts of oil and gas. He makes a living on promoting shares, there’s nobody gonna pay if you start to tell the unvarnished truth...

I'm afraid hostile incoming is nonsense, nobody with the money will take this on without a good look under the hood, it'd be madness, so hostile is out. The reason for the RNS is quite simply to reset expectations about drilling this year when they discovered that wasn't possible or agreed to by "Stakeholders".
If I recall the breakeven was about 10k bbls/day when oil was in the 40's, giving a daily cost of $40k or so, now were at $60's so they're probably making an extra $20 a bbl, at 12k/day thats about $250k/day or $7.5mm per month that means the breakeven rate is now lower than 10k/day. Whilst the higher oil price is welcome it does change the dynamic with the bondholders. If the bondholders can see that at the current oil prices the company may be able to repay from the existing cashflow profile then that to them is the least risky option (they didn't invest to knowingly take big risks), 12-15 months is an extra cashflow of $75-100mm on top of what was previously predicted in a world of $40 oil, add it all together with existing cash and the Bondholders maybe playing the low risk game by putting off further "challenging" drilling...read higher risk to get their investment back in mostly one piece.

Because the opex is mainly a fixed cost, the only variable is transport of the oil. The lease costs, manpower, electricity, diesel , the operators overhead, security, land rental etc are the same regardless of whether you produce 50 barrels or 500.. the only difference are the number of tankers.
They have stated various opex costs based on the target 500/day. (£6, $8-9 and $10) So it’s clear that if your producing only 100/day rather than 500 that the opex per barrel will be higher..
Using an extreme example, if they were producing 25/day would the opex costs be only £150 per day if it’s £6/bbl. ?clearly not.

"According to the EA the Wressle proppant squeeze will be the first time a proppant squeeze has been used in England on a deviated well under a town".

This is an (unsuprisingly) factually incorrect addition to the article, and was a quote from the activists, not the Minister.:
1: The current well is not deviated.
2: The plan to sidetrack was only contingent on a failed squeeze and then only 25m away from the original subsurface location..
3: The radial (horizontal/Sub horizontal) drilling was also a contingent proposal and these were no more than a 100m long.
4: Its not being "deviated under a town"... the nearest property is 500m away and Wressle village is over a mile away....

"RNST.......This may well drag on for many months, possibly into next year."
a few Months maybe, suggesting next year is just not credible.
I believe (but don't know for a fact) that the usual EA turnaround is up to 90 days (could of course be a bit more if more info requested, or less if its run of the mill stuff), OGA are much more comfortable with quick turnarounds given they deal with active drilling and operational stuff all the time, so it'll probably be the former thats the limiting factor.

"The environmental permit for the site said the operation would use 150m3 of gelled liquid and ceramic beads.
The Wressle proppant squeeze will, however, need an approved Hydraulic Fracturing Plan, which states how the fracking process will be controlled and monitored." Apparently both EA and OGA need to sign off on this.

Mirasol - permit required from EA I believe.

"maybe that can permeate into RNST's thoughts..."
it will when they've shown that -
1: It flows at commercial rates
2: no material reservoir pressure decline on test.
3: clarity over oil or black condensate