Member Info for RNSTranslator

Royo... on what basis...?
Do you disagree with what the company has said regarding opex costs? $9/bbl.
Do you disagree that the current production rate is around 100 bbls/day or so?
You may not like it but thats whats actually happening (+/- 15%)....suggesting that that gross revenues are the same as net revenues is frankly deluded...

Royo boy ... which bit is crap?

Cynder
Those are gross revenues. The daily opex for the site is about $4500 ($9/bbl @ 500bbls/day)
at 100 bbls/day and $65/bbl that is $6500/day revenue
Net $2000/day or $800 a day net to UJO.
Thats why they need the Proppant Squeeze ASAP....to see if they can get to 500/day otherwise this is just chump change for the partners.

BHA- Classic Drillers approach to business ... “just make hole”
No understanding of the commercial and legal aspects of what’s going on. They can’t drill because they either need bondholders approval or they expect bondholders legal challenge if they contract to spend money drilling, let alone the loss of revenue whilst drilling...So they’re stuck regardless if how easy it difficult the drilling and completion is. Until either the bondholders change their mind or you get a bod that’s prepared to ignore legal advice then this is stuck in limbo...and the price will wander around these levels +\- unless if the productions “natural decline” changes or the oil price moves.

As usual not quite enough info to do the calculation of cash accumulation without some triangulation on previously released information.
Calculation by lifting: Cargo 19 was end Dec.
2 cargos in Q1 20 and 21 (mid March) with 22 due end April. That means at the end of Q1 there was 1/3 rd of a cargo onboard the AM. Q1 cash increased by $21mm that’s 2 cargos plus if you add the 1/3rd cargo that’s on board at end of Q1 that’s another 4-5mm assuming the oil price is better than January lifting. That makes cash generation of about $25mm a quarter at current rates and prices.
Q1 was lower production 11.2 vs 12.5 so is we assume a steady 12k/day for the next 12 months than that increases quarterly revenue by 20% (additional production above base cost is all profit) so call it $30mm+ a quarter, by rnd March 22 that should have an additional $120mm or more on this calculation. Meaning $247 mm+ in cash.
By July 22 that means $ 277... enough to repay debt and hold enough for abandonment. Of course this assumes a steady state production of 12k and prices for 12months.
This sort of fits with the CPR on a no further work basis.
This is why the bondholders won’t sanction any activity...

They've already told you what's going on:
First phase of evaluation, including Cased Hole Logging Programme and Vertical Seismic Profiling, of WNB-1Z to commence in April 2021
· Processing and interpretation of data expected to take two weeks and will inform completion, well clean-up and EWT operations for WNB-1Z well"
After the logging and VSP (probably no more than a 3-4 day operation) then it'll be two weeks to interpret the results and those results will need to be incorporated in the draft approval which when its finalised will allow testing to commence.

"Based on your analysis and conclusions why would CA purchase additional shares ? If the company options are so limited and handcuffed by bond holders why should they take the financial risk ?"
Its a fair question and without full sight of the bondholder agreement, which I presume CA haven't had, one can really only speculate what their real intentions are.
1: They already had the ability to call and EGM and propose removal of the board - so probably not that.
2: As an activist fund, they have to be seen to be active otherwise their credibility is questioned by their investors,
- over 10% and they have the ability to effectively make a takeover difficult by being able to keep their shares from becoming acquired by a bidder
- over 25% they can block special resolutions, thats the key level to cause grief.
What else can they do to look like they're doing something rather than sitting on the sidelines complaining, buy more shares to show "you mean business" and indirectly support the market price.
3: They actually believe that there is a deeper contact and that the Board and recent CPR is simply wrong.
4: There was block of shares overhanging the market and they took them out to protect the price.
5: There may be a holding level which gives them the right to a seat on the board, often this is 15 or 20%, this would make them privy to whats going on and access to the agreements and advice, although they will become insiders and unable to trade, will be able to make better decisions about the approach to take, rather than currently being blind to the facts (they know nothing more than the shareholders or they wouldn't be able to buy shares)
My guess is 5 perhaps with a bit of 2.
It seems clear to me though that they would want to play hardball with the bondholders as they (Bondholders) have the ability to wipe out shareholders (hence the explicit and repeated warnings).
Trouble is, as a listed entity the Board having damaged their reputations will be keen not to dig a further hole for themselves by taking action that precipitates a total shareholder wipe out.
At the moment their only chance to redeem any value for shareholders is to get rid of the bondholders, take stock and raise cash to drill another well (the CPR spells out the reserves that such a programme might deliver) that means not precipitating anything that gives the Bondholders the right or excuse to step in and demand payment before they can.
If they went off and started drilling a new well, then the clear risks are that they're unable to pay the bondholders next year as theres not enough cashflow to do that having spent much of it drilling (putting aside the loss of revenue while drilling). It may well be successful but unless they can guarantee to have enough cash to repay, hold funds for decom and have an auditable going concern clearance the bondholders will just step in and take the lot.. wiping out the shareholders.

Morganna
“ best option is to utilise both the decently increasing cashflow, and ultra low interest rates available in current global borrowing friendly environment. ”
1: exactly how do you think they could utilise the cash flow? - and still be on track to repay the debt?
2: it’s irrelevant what interest rates are if they cannot borrow anything until the current bondholders are repaid or agree to change the bond terms...
I understand your frustration. , but suggesting they do something they cannot actually do is not the answer.
CA could if they wished call an EGM and remove the Board, and put their own folks in, but they would also receive the same legal advice as the current bunch.. it’ll be hard to find directors who will knowingly ignore the legal advice, although they could change their broker nomad if they want a different answer from them.

Badger:
“If CB holders are so sure about getting all their investment back . Why are there $100m Hurricane CB'S in the Market at 50% Discount ? - Because either there are no buyers or there are no sellers (in material volumes) at the current price. It requires Bondholders to want to sell - if they take the view there’s a better return by waiting why would they sell? Are there really $100mm worth to actually buy?
“Why would the original agreement allow a Full purchase of all CB's by Hurricane after August 2020 ? They do not have to wait full term i believe ( July 2022)”- not all of the terms of the agreement are in the public domain. If Hur have the ability to pay off the bondholders early then maybe they can... but they do need working capital and cash to cover other obligations... so they need significantly in excess of $220mm in the bank before they can repay...probably north of $250mm. There only half way there at the moment...

"Bonds trading around 50% of face value. Basically if Hur elected to they could buy them using existing cash and cancel them."
No they can't, nor can anyone acting in concert with the company.
When you borrow money via a bond, one thing is a given: they get paid back before the shareholders get a return.
You (as shareholders) borrowed their money to increase the returns on your investment, if it works and they are paid off leaving you with enhanced returns on your investment, if it doesn't work out and they don't get paid back you don't get any return... thats the gamble shareholders take when buying the shares.

"HUR board ask you “ We will give you 115m today to close out the debt, that is their market value.”
Would you accept?"
Why should I?, at the moment you're generating enough cash to pay me back the full amount at the back end of the year and before the well cr@ps out economically.
If the price keeps up and the well keeps going longer the shareholders can have whatever's left, and can then do as they wish.

You may not like it but that is the reality of situation,

You only need 5% to call an EGM and propose removing the Board.. so why didn’t CA do that earlier after they spat their dummy out? They know the management will not take on the bondholders against legal/advisor advice .. CA clearly think there’s oil under the contact, Equipoise don’t agree and they’ve seen all the data... CA are an activist fund, they can’t just sit on their thumbs whilst this goes into the pockets of the bondholders..where’s their credibility if they did that? . a public display of “I’m up for a fight” to the bondholders... albeit CA have at least one hand tied behind their backs and a fanciful geological model...

littlened- quite ;-]

The CPR simply stated what could be produced from the current well with no further work.
The key issue is that to extract more hydrocarbons (including from the flank) will require further drilling and the ability to fund that - until that situation is resolved and funding clarified it's bit of a mute point.

NVG says:
Shareprice will go up on a successful test (duh - pretty self evident)
Shareprice will also go up on an unsuccessful test ??
Seems a one way bet.. heres what he said....

RNST -
"You seem to be avoiding answering the question...So lets put it very simply: you say" I said the share price would go up a F lot at some stage." Are you saying this will be true regardless of the test results ?"

NVG: YES !

Rubey, thanks for your feedback... which bit is "rubbish"
I think its been pretty accurate so far... does that make you feel uncomfortable?

Ah Mr NVG... you still don't get it do you... I stand by what I posted last year ahead of the B1z in your request for a prediction.
I've posted it subsequently but it doesn't seem to fit your own agenda which is simply to disparage those who wont play your game... (Clueless Ramping). Of course what I did get wrong was that it wont be testing in January, although some thought even that was negative, so it going to be May.
So for the third time here it is.. it even suggested it'd get to 1p on testing but ahead of results... so a little way to go yet eh!
".I believe that the sidetrack will encounter gas and probably “black condensate” based on log interpretation (it’s not going to be oil in the true sense)- I’d put the chances if this at 75-80%. The price will rise on the back of this news because most mug punters think that finding hydrocarbons On logs and in the drilling mud equates to “success”. They will then need to decide if they want to test based on this info (and core if they’ve taken any). Can’t see how they can’t test as there’s now nothing to lose (no testing equals failure = price Armageddon). The testing will be the critical element tof everything going on at WN. The flow rates will need to be commercial (the condensate zone will have to be tested first) and they will want to see rates in the 100s of bbls/day, but more important than that will to understand the pressure response if there is a significant pressure decline (or it’s very slow to recover) then it suggests a small connected volume, not one large interconnected reservoir.
So it could flow at “headline” 1000bbls/day, but if the pressure declines rapidly then it’s not going to fly commercially. Of course it’s debatable how much of the critical technical info they will put in any release - there is a tendency to talk about column heights, high flow rates etc red meat for the uninformed.. So to cut a long story short..
Price at year end if they announce they’ve got gas and condensate then 0.7/0.8 (can’t see how they won’t test)
If they’ve started testing and the usual rabble can see “flames” then it’ll pop up to 1p ...perhaps more.
It’ll be January before the real result comes in, and it will depend on 1) did it flow commercially and sustainably then it may get up to 1.5p, if they announce it flowed well but suggest further analysis of the data is required and they won’t be testing WNA then it’s damage limitation time and it’ll fall off a cliff (probably terminal decline) as they’ve got nothing else of real value...that enough for you..?"

"I am interested to hear what some more with more insight than me has to counter balance the view of Ashley Kelty, oil and gas analyst at investment bank Panmure Gordon"...

He used to say this when Dr T was at the helm....
“This also fails to reflect the scale of Hurricane’s resource base which is materially larger than any other independent E&P companies in the UK."
"The shut-in of one of the Lancaster field’s two production wells is a “bump in the road” that didn’t warrant such a large drop in Hurricane Energy Shares..."

on DR T's exit he said...

"“disappointing news” and a “big blow” for the company,
"Replacing Mr Trice would be hard if not impossible"
"Mr Trice had proven the sceptics wrong"
as well as:
“We would estimate that the size of the oil column and discovery location would infer the Halifax discovery may be of a similar size to that of Lancaster, which we estimate at 407 mmbbls.
“However, it is conceivable that the combined discoveries offer an even greater reserve quantum of over 1bn bbls.”

He's a mate of Dr T... they used to work together at Enterprise Oil... funny that.

Mr Angle
I’m afraid your partly right and partly wrong. Yes at the current rate of production, assuming the poo stays high and that the water cut behaves itself then they will likely have enough to repay the bond early next year. However, that will take all the cash. They need cash to post decom security 21mn plus as the actual cost of decom is ~35/40mm then they will need to have the extra cash to actually pay for the work (they could borrow the excess ahead of the tax rebate for the govt share) plus they need to get going concern sign off by the auditors. We know at $50 and no further work the economic cut off is January, at $60 it’s probably got another 6 months or so depending on well performance. So in January they’ve pay off the debt and hold 21mn in reserve for decom, how do they drill the sidetrack with no money? Borrow it - who the hell is going to lend them money after this fiasco? They will be within months of the end of the economic field life, unless they drill at a cost of 70mm? Plus... who’s going to put up the cash to do that? You say it will have 16p of value, that’s £300mm are you serious?

Heid
Why do you like David?
Has he made you money?
Did you invest when they first floated at 0.25p (50p in todays shares) 7 or so years ago?
Clearly he admires your patience waiting for a return...
UJO has spent an order of magnitude more time under the float price than above it. so what attracts you to the shares...or do you just see your investment as some sort of fan club subscription.?