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Jeez Littlened you just don't get it: The Bondholders are paying the equivalent of $52mm, those buying shares in the Market last week are paying the equivalent of £400mm ($500mm). The current market cap is based on 2bn shares not the 40bn shares that will be the case after the court approves the restructure.

OK lets do it the long way round: Currently there are 2bn shares in issue, they will issue 38bn new ones to the bondholders.
2+38 = 40.
40 bn shares at 1p each (the CURRENT price) = £400mm. This will be the market cap following dilution IF the shareprice states at 1p. Obviously its not worth £400mm because the bondholders just paid ( or forgave) $50mm in return for 38bn shares i.e they are paying about 0.13 pence per share. The current market cap is irrelevant, its the prospective post dilution market cap of £400mm that should concern you... clue: HUR isn't worth £400mm,because somebody just valued it at $52.5mm.

littleness: you really should read what they said...
Market Cap on the day before announcement was £50mm.
They will issue 19x the number of shares currently in issue i.e. 38bn new shares.
That means there will be 40bn shares in issue, at 1p each that gives a market cap of £400mm.
Trouble is the bondholders just paid $50mm for 95% of the company...
So if your buying at 1p you must believe the company is worth £400mm , despite the facts demonstrating that somebody just bought 95% of it for $50mm.... Its not rocket science....

ADUK: "No judge in their right mind will sanction a company essentially (as is the case right now) still producing, and making cash profit, to be 'bankrupt', no matter what future (not due for a year) debt overhang may be."
Suggest you do some research on "going concern" and "Trading whilst insolvent".
If you done have enough net income to pay your bills over the next 12-18 months , then you won't get an Auditor to sign off on the accounts.
I'll put money on the fact the covenants in the Bondholder Docs will have clauses that kick in on "going concern' sign off by the Auditors.

Heid: “ 15% recovery !!!?? I strongly disagree with you there. ”
Average recovery factor from all UK onshore KA reservoirs is about 13%. This might be different of course but you’d need to make an reasoned argument without a precedent to show why, for why you think it’s a multiple of this.

Hasiba: "....without having a solid plans of success to challenge the bod and likely to remove them by calling an EGM then arrange a takeover by a third party which is probably already agreed..."
All this talk of a take-over is pure nonsense. The company doesn't have enough cashflow to meet its bills, whichever plan you choose to follow. Who would buy a company where they need to inject cash to repay the bondholders, ensure the contact for the AM is extended and the other costs are covered and then set about drilling a well at a cost of 70-90mm which may recover more oil or it may not....answer nobody.
There are so many folks on this board that simply didn't want to believe the warnings that the company may go under or massive dilution would occur, some because CA were "no fools" and they believed that there was more oil under the contact...or other such conspiracy theories. Fact is many retail investors and even professional investors got it wrong and misunderstood or miscalculated the risks they were actually taking by investing, and simply can't accept that fact. If anyone is to blame its those on the Board who failed to challenge a head strong CEO who believed he was right....

Aduk “ And debt can always be 'restuctured' to everyone's mutual benefit. “
Naive, why should the bondholders do anything which risks not being paid back? They lent In return for a fixed interest rate of 7.5% so the shareholders could leverage their returns. Didn’t work out so they want their money back and owe the shareholders nothing..

"how did mr T get it so wrong in the first place, and manage to get a CPR to back that up, which once revisited, identified completely different results"

Simple, he wanted to believe it and insisted on a deeper oil water contact, RPS who had a former Director on the HUR Board accepted the deeper OWC. The Chairman at the time left because if this. Of course if you believe you have an OWC much deeper than the producers you don’t expect to produce water, so when they do you say “perched water”... eventually the truth outs... the contact is 200 odd meters shallower, the production wells are much closer to the water and do the next CPR has the benefits of an extensive production history to match the model...more importantly they don’t have a ceo and non exec looking over their shoulder telling them where the contact “should be. Just because a small cap activist investor throws more money at it doesn’t mean they actually know what they’re doing... as events have now probably confirmed....

CA is yet to sing: I suspect an old Sinatra number....
“ And now the end is here
And so I face that final curtain
My friend I'll make it clear
I'll state my case, of which I'm certain
I've lived a life that's full
I traveled each and every highway
And more, much more
I did it, I did it my way
Regrets, I've had a few....etc etc ..

Bigsmoke: "also - you discount the "no brainer" of repurchasing the bonds for p in the £. Why?"
Because under the bondholders agreement they are not allowed to do this..thats why.

Alavib suggests:
"The current MC of 47million is a smack in the face . How could this market value a company with 150 million $ in the bank and earning over 750K$ per day based on current POO be valued as such"
- because despite having $127mm in the bank they have debts of $220mm, Interest payments of $16mm a year, a requirement to hold $30mm+ for abandonment liabilities, and a need for working capital. Call it $270mm. So they need to generate abt $140mm from the current well(s), these are declining but on current estimates and oil prices should just about generate that revenue between now and early 22, longer if oil drops back , sooner if oil prices climb, how long the well will to continue produce at a rate above the commercial threshold still has some technical uncertainty. They are simply unable to do anything else until the revenue numbers become clearer. Thats what happens when you borrow money to leverage shareholders returns... the lenders get paid back before shareholders.
"The day of reckoning is just round the corner get rid of the current BOD and bring in a real oil man and market will shift the SP accordingly"
- CA have been able to call an EGM and propose removing the Board for a long while, and they haven't. The problem with activists is that they want to direct the Board and understand the options but don't want to be made insiders - stops them trading. They often try to insert their own directors, however its very difficult for them to be classed as " independent" as they're the Activists place men...and so trading is tricky.
Bottom line: unless the bondholders are paid out or agree to some other arrangement the shareholders will get nothing.

Mirasol you may be correct wrt wax, as the basin is well known for waxy oils: A report from the OGA website:
"Potential source rocks are plentiful and mature throughout the Carboniferous. Thick sequences of oil-prone late Dinantian shales occur in the Widmerpool, Edale and Gainsborough sub-basins. Even more widely occurring are the thick early Namurian shales, while the marine bands and associated shales of the late Namurian and Westphalian, although thin, occur over the greater part of the region. The oils have variable APIs and high wax contents."
They may well be using wax inhibitors as part of the production system, as it says in the report its a well known phenomena in the region and should have been prepared for.

“· Expected increase in production of 200 barrels of oil per day net to Union Jack on production start-up“
This was August... “production start up” must be after the well clean up phase if EDR have t paid the £400k then UJO must still have the £2mm due to Calmar. Maybe this is why they don’t want to release figures as it may open the debate with Calmar about “first commercial production” and they want their £2.4mm... if you don’t release flow rates and the operator still says it’s in the clean up/testing phase then who’s to say it’s commercial production?

EDRs result indicates they’ve yet to pay the £400k payment due on a Wressle commercial oil start up. Refer to it still as clean up/testing phase.

https://data-ogauthority.opendata.arcgis.com/pages/relinquishments

For those with a technical interest...
Wick and Colter...

Corallian: All the Poole bay stuff has been relinquished.
In fact there is a relinquishment report with all the details of what happened on the OGA website.
Basically they mismapped the original structure by getting the faults in the wrong place and both their wells simply replicated what had already been previously drilled.
Simple fact is in the report say it’s too far from the WF facilities to drill, that may differ to what they may have led you to believe... interesting to compare the pre drill and post drill maps.... if this had been a real oil company they’d be on the next “right sizing” list...
These folks are not known for their great mapping skills...Wick, Colter, Colter South, oh and whatever happened to Curlew where they shot a well site survey probably costing 500k or so years ago for a 40mm bbl prospect?? Seems nobody believed that either..
Victory may well have some value, but getting someone to believe you after their track record is the key ...

Keepwell
The current document is simply an extract from a full cpr from ECRE which has yet to be finalised and published on the website.
The report itself will contain much more technical detail and ERCEs rationale and their own, not the company’s, interpretation of the data.
It’s obvious that CA are flying blind here and need the full report before they can assess their view of the validity of the contact and remaining resources. Etc...
Anyone who thinks that the full CPR (as opposed to the pre publication extract-which had to be signed off by Maris as a correct extract) is the just the work of the company doesn’t understand how ERCE works. The involvement of a former RPS director and his role as a former member of the Board of Hur has been discussed many times on here.

Mr Angle
you may not want to believe what i suggest, but this is what CA said today:
"The Fund, as well as all market participants, only have visibility over the limited published data."
they also reiterate "The Fund believes these estimates are very cautious and pessimistic in the critical issue of oil-water contact. Logs and sampling demonstrate the occurrence of oil below the 'new' oil water contact."
Even a novice petroleum geologist understands that some oil can occur below the OWC, especially in fractured reservoirs where there may oil trapped in fractures...which can be unrelated to the connected fracture system above the oil water contact.
These guys say they want a seat on the Board, so they can see all the facts and legal opinion, you don't get that by sitting and complaining about it, you increase your stake to a point where they cant resist..

"Why would CA be buying so heavily in this case??"
The fact that they are buying means they do not have any material information that the rest of the shareholders don't have. They have been complaining of not being involved...
In reality it is quite embarrassing for them and Kerogen to have been two high profile investors in what turned out to be a "billion barrel "dud.

"Maris you need to speak up before Bernstein destroys you.......it is coming because you cannot sit on your backside much longer."
...to be honest I don't think he'd mind... 12 months notice period, he'll sit at home being paid full benefits for the next year or so.. without having to deal with the Cr@p he's probably unwittingly walked into....whilst any new CEO tries to put together a Royal Flush with the same cr@ppy set of cards he's been dealt....