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Yes but how do they value the property? I think usually long term Gilts play a key role as a benchmark, this is a residential REIT though so I don't know what formula they use. However haven't residential property values gone up especially gone up albeit less than inflation. Anybody any the wiser about what formula they use?

Howard05 thanks for the comment and question. My understanding is that the yield on a 10yr UK Gov bond (Gilt) is key in valuing a UK REIT's NAV. If it goes up, REIT values come down because REITs are considered a bond like investment and a cheaper price is required to justify investing in them with respect to Gilts. Makinflg them cheaper makes their yields increase wet bonds for a new purchaser.

On 30/9/24 the yield on the 10yr Gilt was 4.01%, on 30/9/25 it was 4.7%. So it could have been worse than 50bps!

However both these measurement points were particularly low and high in the Gilt valuation graph, the current yield is 4.48% meaning the actual NAV today if calculated today would be higher than reported. These are likely being sold off far too low but we will see, the "reflect market sentiment" leaves us in the dark and is quite unhelpful- does this mean with respect to NTA or share price and also as of when- 30th September 25 or 23rd Jan 26?!

Despite the tone managing expectations of offer prices, the operational numbers are very good, this business is being sold off for a song. We finally have clarification now that the debt is being sold along with the portfolio and is not being broken and the buyers are also buying the "valuable asset" referred to in earlier posts.

In the detail the report says NTA including debt break gain (but excluding reversionary surplus) is 68.2p, with a baseline EPRA NTA of 63.3p excluding both, so given the disenchanting tone you would expect offers representing somewhere between these two figures, which is still well up on today's price of 56p.

Given they are down to just one final bidder for both portfolios and that shared ownership is "near complete", I wouldn't expect a protracted rigmarole at least on the shared ownership sale, so think it is worth holding on for potentially more high dividends and (two?) final capital distributions perhaps 15-20% higher than today's price.

There are a couple of mini surprises, I had expected stable NTA as long term Gilt yields have come down slightly since last March not increased as the report implies (31st March 2025 eg 15 year gilt was 5.0%, 31st Dec 4.9%), so what other market forces have reduced it so much ... sounds a bit convenient to me for a buyer, is it mates rates for NTA to enable a cheaper sale?!. Also as REITs have to pay out at least 90% , with a cover of 1.34x for a year, what's happening to the cash providing the extra coverage?

Whatever 63-68p is well up on 56p so whether foolish or not I bought a few more today

It all seems very messy now, with the uncertainty over valuations and the move towards delisting, just a small holding on this one so sold at 49.3. it had been a good few weeks though before this. Let's hope there is some news for everyone soon to clarify that there are no surprises in tangible asset values for the remaining assets, which could restore some sentiment.

That RNS today was a shocker, gives the impression they hadnt expected the CGT on the Spanish properties. I think there's still a margin overall wrt NAV, but it does raise questions of competence/trust on the valuations for the remaining assets Perhaps someone can give a more positive spin on something I've missed!

And right on queue the announcement same day as last year.

I think this looks fairly strong for a buyer, 15% earnings gain and 134% divi coverage without including the 3.4% rental increase of last April. The NTA drop is expected after the gilt yields increase and is perhaps transient, the NAV even so is still well above the share price. The figures don't include the retirement portfolio reversionary uplift - the footnote says they have been selling retirement properties at an average of 21% premium to book value. Engaging with multiple sellers sounds positive but with numbers now looking v. healthy and stable you would hope for a decent offer to compensate for losing high income.

I won't be selling in a hurry, the divi is still a well covered 7% and the wind down value is 65p-85p depending whether loans can be transferred and how much the reversionary uplift is considered for the retirement units. Who knows maybe the next update will give some guidance, which can't be long now.

Yes perhaps the £1 and £5 were a bit comedic, a golden hello is fair enough, it's their hard work and commitment, but I'd hope for some harder targets in future.

Thanks BusinessOwner some useful insights. In your experience were stringent performance targets set. I may have read wrong but I think it said for CAP AI 40% of company is awarded in 3 tranches of options if the share price ranges from .05p to .3p, which doesn't seem to be a strong incentive, I'd have much preferred to see something like 50p, £1, £5 ...

Thanks for the insight. So this looks like a long haul with dilution, and you as usual have to believe in the specific innovations that are picked and it's a gamble as none have been stated. I'm still struggling to see why a plc though if it's going to rely on private investment. Shareholders have relatively thin patience

If they are not printing shares, can anyone tell me where the cash is coming from, as the main benefit to R42 is stated as "access to investors and funding", nice jump but this just looks like hype so far

Thank you Trek for drawing attention to CRT- a very timely post.

Shows how much REITs that deliver reliable income are undervalued at present, CRT discount was particularly high, a good outcome.

Property valuation is 2.8bn also Market Cap is still a discount, they still have headroom in the revolving credit facility to not have to issue shares, existing business looks solid but deep in the report it says they need to see a big uplift in rentals to make further serious investments... Still think it's a buy at 92p.

Ah I think there we have our answer with the big rise in Assura. Whoever sold on HSBC guidance won't trust them ever again.

A somewhat dubious interpretation from HSBC, for PHP a well run company in high demand that always delivers on dividends, which are still v good in relation to bond yields, in a backdrop where bond yields and interest rates are just as or more likely to fall further than go up improving NAVs long term.. to have such a large downgrade on a dubious mention of deployed capital vs cost smacks of a hidden agenda to put pressure on the price. On top of this Govt are stating they will shift money into local care centres which should further improve rent opportunity, with all this together you'd have thought analysts would be waiting for an excuse to upgrade instead.

.... And the NAV has been tested by the recent sales. It seems you collect 9% and look forward to an uplift when assets are sold. Risks are Gilt prices pick up again, residential property market crash, or harsher terms for landlords. These seem low risks to me compared to upside.

I don't think there's anything to miss, I posted something similar earlier this year when buying up at 49p. The debt terms are prob the best in the industry and not an issue, the divi is well covered, the board and fund manager have been trusted to do what they say they will, and the NAV has been tes

Just looking at RESI first time, which looks set for v good income and/or gains, and wondering if I am missing anything?

- 1.2x covered divi of 4.12p >8% at todays price, which is not under pressure after rebase

- v good long term debt majority at 3.5% fixed with >19 years to go, most of the remainder already peaked at 1.1% +RPI capped at 5.5%, with >20 years to go

- Record demand, turning people away, nearly 100% occupancy and rent collection

- Rents increasing 9% this year

- Sticky tenants with demand not cyclical due to shared ownership & retirement units focus, unlike warehouse/retail/office

- Plan to remove the smaller FLR component of debt in early 24 by sale of social housing, under offer and already over 1/4 of units exchanged. Concerns over FLR if they are paramount seem overblown.

- Further margin improvement by reducing mtce costs and revised fees calc

- LTV still at 50% even with reduced NAV calculated Dec 23 and further mitigated by v. good loan terms

- Refurbs are organised to be accretive to income by justifying improved rents

In a year or two 50p could look cheap in the rear view mirror. Yet even with no SP increase the compounded dividends are nearly 50% gain in 5 years at todays price.

Is it just the smaller REIT size putting this under the investment radar or still recovering from a shock of temporary divi reduction?