Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
I disagree oil rises till April/May because of continued weakness in the dollar and then the advance will be tapered depending on the value of the dollar and the emergence from the pandemic affecting oil supply. The effects of china's stockpiling of oil will affect the market as well.
Oil price should not be considered with other commodities due to 1) Pandemic 2) Stock Piling all commodities are affected by the US dollar. Dollar goes down and you need more of them to buy the same thing as before but the above two points can not be understood. Not to mention supply manipulation by OPEC.
If you are bullish on the oil price you are mad to exit. You only have to ensure no more Dilution at least for a year. You tough it out. 70$ oil price makes a huge difference and that's like 3mill more than expected.
The dollar is overdue a rise, but the pound wants to go above 1,40 whether it gets there who knows. After it does it wants down for the summer. The dollar wants to climb latest May June, but its Biden and we are lucky we have OPEC.
Can't wait for shareholders meeting
Shareholders need to be on the same page with this and not allow 'Johny come lately' dominate the way forward. Other companies have clearly not given a dam about the share price assuming that new shareholders have taken charge.
A ten-fold increase in price would still put a significant number of shareholders still in the red.
Averaging down is not an astute financial answer anymore. You don't spend money good money chasing bad, and the company is way to good looking forward to allowing owners to lock in losses by selling.
Make sure enough of us make this clear to the board, as we now have their interests at heart with the approach mentioned by myself and others over this week.
I hope it is not necessary and they are way ahead of us.
We are still in a force majeure and will be in that for about 2 and a half years total.
Due to that, we can and should get extensions on drill commitments and license tenure.
If I am wrong in that and I am sure I am not, the pandemic places them(Bahamas) in dire straights. You negotiate the situation in our favour. Bringing in drill partners by watering down license does not benefit the Bahamas; it adds years of complexity; the Bahamas does not have this time.
If it turns out that share dilution needs to be done to raise funds to drill, we do not drill. Try and negotiate a reasonable delay or lose the 50% as doing an issue will definitely lose 50% value, on one drill. 75% of people have held put, so it is not in our interests. As such, we will not lose out on a slight delay as shareholders.
We will move forward with a drill baby drill mentality without dilution; 70% stayed after the iceberg hit.
The 70% ownership in drawdown has no interest in share issuing. There is no mandate from the shareholders for that as the agreements reached were for the funding of perv1, which is complete. We have not given them a mandate for more issuing.
The future is bright, and the long crawl back starts next week.
1) Push deadlines back as that is in the interest of Bahamas and BPC.
2) Put a call out for a farm-out partner; one exploration well per year or every other year at the latest, at sea.
3) We need a hydrogen play on a couple of unprofitable oil fields to hedge the companies 5 - 10 future. You don't need quality oil fields for that.
The sand lines will be drawn between the interests of the old 3.5billion shares(in drawdown from 2.2p+) and the new 1 billion shares.
This has never been a quick buck.
By drawdown, I mean in the red.
So long as certain financing style is taken off the table we good to be honest. Just give cerp assets a couple months or year to kick in. I will do a proper post.
Without algos, this crap would not happen this week. It's 3.5 billion shares staying put. They will definitely hold much longer. Just need to make sure clear guidelines set at board meeting.
Fair value is the price of the oil you can recover. So it should be at least 100-150 mill.
Basically lombard odier have been getting smashed up for investing in petroleum and it is alleged that lawsuits were threaten. We only have one issue the 15% when it needs to be settled.
We have 6 production wells in Suriname funded and the Trinidad is funded, if things are tied up correctly. RNS stated this was to avoid 5.4 billion shares in issue.
Farm in position is better served as the deal offered was a joke before hand. 50 50 deal now. A small asset based loan is the worst case scenario.
They at worst it's a couple mill loan, and I am certain retail banks in T&T can handle that. That would not be needed until after first quarter. I think lombard need 5-7 mill back top end estimate. You can't issue shares as that would make a bad situation worse.
Upon reflection the convertible note would be the better way, but we all expected to be hit with oil first time.
Cerp saved us and back up we go. We just need to cover five mill back to Lombard or negotiate an extension or find a replacement. We don't need to issue shares right now. Cause that would make an ok situation a problem.
We good imho
I don't think we need millions to get saffron going it's just drill and case.
Trinidad has derisked 200 million barrels of oil potential, just before pandemic with a high-quality oil strike. A gusher of 11mill barrels at one level. They were forced to do that, as the geologist run country says u always go to full depth.
Before the merger, it was to derisk 400mill and first was looking at 11 mill prospect.
So all is good so far.
Bpc Perv 2, post-pandemic, post legal issues and with experience, leads to a significantly lower cost drill.
It's realistic, farms ins face costs similar to land drills in Alaska, previously exploration wells were 40mill+.
It can be done for 20mill- post-pandemic with experience. Farm in prospect is far greater, as there are more potential small partners like hue oil. 60/40 50/50 70/30 in our favour with all costs covered should be possible. The costs are half that believed at last exclusivity discussions.
In today's drilling market three super deep wells one at world record depths cost 46.3mill in contracts
With what was learnt, 1 well post covid is going to be significantly less. There is a realistic prospect for no more watering down of the company. If the company can simply get a little ahead. In Trinidad, Bahamas government chill A bit.
It does require people to chill hold buy back in.
The board need to burrow down on what the costs of perv2 should be with the experience. Project what the contribution is likely to be in 2022.
Work the assets in tt, discover more oil swp or make more production wells. 11mill barrels is 50 mill profit minimum.
Financing will need to be more creative and competitive. Risk-free capital with guaranteed returns must be thing of the past. Financial projections will need to be accurate, with the monies raised contributing to increasing cash flow. To ensure 2022 has significant cash flows coming in.
All the farm in does is provide money, loads of partners can contribute to well finance at collective 25%-35% cut 3partners at 9mill. Perv2 & Perv3 shortfall BPC with oil revenue in 2020 as it comes in. Or a standard bank loan. For 4mill and oil revenue. That is 31mill+
Things are way better than they seem the weak part is the market and the panicked long term shareholder. Grow some b*lls or toughen your v**ina. Buckle up. Hit the phones and partner up for the next drill.
6 companies with cash on the books for 5-6% each 6 mill. Companies failing to increase SP and need excitement. 6mill is like advert money.
My fam is in.
SP goes with discovery. There are loads. Of prospects. 2500 will probably be exceeded and is not needed anyway.
Trinidad has derisked 200 million barrels of oil potential, just before pandemic with a high-quality oil strike. A gusher of 11mill barrels at one level. They were forced to do that, as the geologist run country says u always go to full depth.
Before the merger, it was to derisk 400mill and first was looking at 11 mill prospect.
So all is good so far.
Bpc Perv 2, post-pandemic, post legal issues and with experience, leads to a significantly lower cost drill.
It's realistic, farms ins face costs similar to land drills in Alaska, previously exploration wells were 40mill+.
It can be done for 20mill- post-pandemic with experience. Farm in prospect is far greater, as there are more potential small partners like hue oil. 60/40 50/50 70/30 in our favour with all costs covered should be possible. The costs are half that believed at last exclusivity discussions.
In today's drilling market three super deep wells one at world record depths cost 46.3mill in contracts
With what was learnt, 1 well post covid is going to be significantly less. There is a realistic prospect for no more watering down of the company. If the company can simply get a little ahead. In Trinidad, Bahamas government chill A bit.
It does require people to chill hold buy back in.
The board need to burrow down on what the costs of perv2 should be with the experience. Project what the contribution is likely to be in 2022.
Work the assets in tt, discover more oil swp or make more production wells. 11mill barrels is 50 mill profit minimum.
Financing will need to be more creative and competitive. Risk-free capital with guaranteed returns must be thing of the past. Financial projections will need to be accurate, with the monies raised contributing to increasing cash flow. To ensure 2022 has significant cash flows coming in.
All the farm in does is provide money, loads of partners can contribute to well finance at collective 25%-35% cut 3partners at 9mill. Perv2 & Perv3 shortfall BPC with oil revenue in 2020 as it comes in. Or a standard bank loan. For 4mill and oil revenue. That is 31mill+
Things are way better than they seem the weak part is the market and the panicked long term shareholder. Grow some b*lls or toughen your v**ina. Buckle up. Hit the phones and partner up for the next drill.
6 companies with cash on the books for 5-6% each 6 mill. Companies failing to increase SP and need excitement. 6mill is like advert money.
My fam is in.
Cerp just struck oil before pandemic the results had only just come in. Without pandemic they would hit 12p. There would have been no merger
Bpc is perv 1 play, people do not understand the swp play. There will be oil strikes from now on, the area is derisked with quality oil, that is gushing.
I think most BPC shareholders fail to understand what Trinidad is about!
A little insight.
Haven lived there as a child, I literally grew up watching oil tankers fill themselves with oil in the back yard. There second city was and probably still is littered with oil installations. As you go further south to point fort in the south oil country kicks in further. Point a piere and further south.
The worlds largest pitch lake at one point as well as, The country believes, the first true commercial oil well was started in Trinidad, not Poland or texas.
Now if that was not enough, the instrument known as steel pan, was invented there. Guess what a steel pan is? It is literally an oil drum, you could argue Trinidadians worship hydrocarbons.
Not so long ago the now deceased Patrick Manning moved the country into liquified natural gas. The country went on to be the largest supplier of liquified natural gas to the USA.
This is not starchild doing research, I can say I lived it, this is osmosis. No when you go further south your now getting to swp, the previous owners where alleged to be relatives of the islands mr big and shady. Like I said I am not starchild. Anyway the low down on swp, was that there was an earthquake there. When it hit not long ago, couple years if that, and before the discovery there was literally rocks blasting into the air volcano style. One of those rocks now resides with a family member as souvenir, the rock was literally oil.
Swp strikes and the pressure is solid so that area is no joke.
San Fernando to swp show hydro and has done so for centuries, swp is new.
Now Trinidad had BP, Texaco, amoco these probably all have different names now. But some this is going on to the other side of the island. They only had one bad play when they were stupid enough to mess around with mittal, in my opinion when he screwed the steal workers. They gave him exploration opportunities. He is not someone you do business with.
The point I am trying to make is, there is literally no better place to be. Guyana tries to source expertise from there. Leo cuts good deals with contractors, good contractors.
The government is more favorable than any other in the western hemisphere. The prime minister is a geologist phd. Cerp share holders were screwing when we joined.
The opportunities are crazy, we have first crack at the regions best oil work force. We are so far ahead of the game it's silly. When contractors are willing to drill first and get paid later, this is brilliant. These are the kinds of deals Leo did so if some deals are cut like that.
You will be shocked what Leo can still help the board do.
You can have your cake and eat it, sometimes you'll just put on a little weight.
I could go on and on about assets in Trinidad, it's a country you want to do well in.
Swp was stated to have around 400mill barrels.
They now say 200mill they have proven it they were looking for the Venezuela style heavy oil.
They found light stuff that was a gusher like you see in the movies. Cerp was on the way to being a half billion company. Y'all need to chill and stop with the panic.
I think most BPC shareholders fail to understand what Trinidad is about!
A little insight.
Haven lived there as a child, I literally grew up watching oil tankers fill themselves with oil in the back yard. There second city was and probably still is littered with oil installations. As you go further south to point fort in the south oil country kicks in further. Point a piere and further south.
The worlds largest pitch lake at one point as well as, The country believes, the first true commercial oil well was started in Trinidad, not Poland or texas.
Now if that was not enough, the instrument known as steel pan, was invented there. Guess what a steel pan is? It is literally an oil drum, you could argue Trinidadians worship hydrocarbons.
Not so long ago the now deceased Patrick Manning moved the country into liquified natural gas. The country went on to be the largest supplier of liquified natural gas to the USA.
This is not starchild doing research, I can say I lived it, this is osmosis. No when you go further south your now getting to swp, the previous owners where alleged to be relatives of the islands mr big and shady. Like I said I am not starchild. Anyway the low down on swp, was that there was an earthquake there. When it hit not long ago, couple years if that, and before the discovery there was literally rocks blasting into the air volcano style. One of those rocks now resides with a family member as souvenir, the rock was literally oil.
Swp strikes and the pressure is solid so that area is no joke.
San Fernando to swp show hydro and has done so for centuries, swp is new.
Now Trinidad had BP, Texaco, amoco these probably all have different names now. But some this is going on to the other side of the island. They only had one bad play when they were stupid enough to mess around with mittal, in my opinion when he screwed the steal workers. They gave him exploration opportunities. He is not someone you do business with.
The point I am trying to make is, there is literally no better place to be. Guyana tries to source expertise from there. Leo cuts good deals with contractors, good contractors.
The government is more favorable than any other in the western hemisphere. The prime minister is a geologist phd. Cerp share holders were screwing when we joined.
The opportunities are crazy, we have first crack at the regions best oil work force. We are so far ahead of the game it's silly. When contractors are willing to drill first and get paid later, this is brilliant. These are the kinds of deals Leo did so if some deals are cut like that.
You will be shocked what Leo can still help the board do.
You can have your cake and eat it, sometimes you'll just put on a little weight.
I could go on and on about assets in Trinidad, it's a country you want to do well in.
Harry you are lying now. CERP production was down for the reasons I started. Koot probably made a mistake joining with BPC but this is where we are.
The company should be valued at 1.3p by year's end. It doesn't how many bpd you get it's how much it costs.
UK based oil extraction are you serious. It's just not the same class as Trinidad and Suriname. Those companies have no potential real growth. Once their solitary field is tapped that's it. There asset bases are different royalty tax regimes are different.
If we did those numbers we would be on 10p+ but we don't have to.
All CERP assets are proven, what are you talking about, CERP is an oil producer. To drill next year with a farmin they would need maybe another 15mill, the 2500 bpd is easy. The only reason why that was not being achieved before is because of the low oil price or high oil price. CERP played the tax game with the Trinidadian government.
2500bpd is not an achievement it is a for gone conclusion. SWP is proven. they struck oil at multiply levels.
I am not saying this to be positive. The Bahamas assets will not be lost the Bahamians are invested in BPC. It is now 20 mill per well. Liquidation might have to take place next year if no farm in taken. That will have to be a decision around July, August. Even if the Bahamas assets are lost, the rest of the company should still put SP on about 1.3p-2p minimum.
I am not positive thinking, positive thinking is that we get a farmin on a 50/50 basis, for that I want 50-70 mill committement and 2 -3 wells.
They have the cash, remember the oil price is 60us or there about.