focusIR May 2024 Investor Webinar: Blue Whale, Kavango, Taseko Mines & CQS Natural Resources. Catch up with the webinar here.
Intraday iPhone error
As an investor I don't take much notice of the intrastate movements and wonder how anyone can trade in RRL with such a large spread Does anyone make any money?
Obviously they see Malcy as a well respected oil professional who looks at the long term prospects for the company. He can understand their layered approach to building company value and the stock price. It is important to understand that RRL is in recovery mode has a long way to go but at present the position is improving. So I do feel that if the report is positive investors will feel that the company has a future. Building confidence in RRL will take time but hopefully this will be the start
We don't have enough information on why the purchase of Trinity assets was refused but since Petrotrin has been in a bit of turmoil things could easily change. It could simply be that the Trinidad Government thinks the assets will earn them more in the hands of Trinity but since Range are looking to maximise production through water flood things could change. In fact a merged company would be beneficial to Trinidad if the merger increases production
Just to clarify I would not recommend investing in RRL at present because of the need to see a far more powerful movement in both production and cash flow. My question re a possible merger was because investment bankers look at synergies and economies of scale to analyse whether this would be a good idea. Trinity will have a good idea about this as will RRL who are looking at acquisitions. The BOD continually emphasise their quest as improving shareholder value so it is not unreasonable to look at a merger if it does that.
Since RRDSL already works for Trinity it's highly likely they will have further contracts as Trinity expands. This is one of the main reasons for the acquisition. The question is will there be a merger?
The value of the trades today were only enough to buy an old banger. There is no real demand for the shares at present since the company is still in a recovery phase which may or may not succeed. The spread will ensure this is the case for months to come
It is far too soon to make a judgement on share price performance since Range have to show a consistent growth trend in both production and cash flow This will take months and nobody knows when the tipping point will come or indeed whether it ever will In my opinion any trading at this stage is a high risk but could ultimately be rewarding I will not be taking any action until the price gets to 0.5p
Obviously that should be �45m
RRL's bopd is 2,000 below Trinity who have a market cap of c.�45. Does this mean that even if RRL get the BOPD to that level the company will only be worth �45, a share price of 0.6p?
Unfortunately I am not in a position to invest anymore since all my funds go to pay my mortgage, although I do still hold my Range shares which are not worth much. Anyway I agree with Predator that you need to diversify your shareholdings with a maximum of 15% in one stock. You also need to be prepared to sell at a loss and that is where Range shareholders came a cropper. They believed the hype and stayed in when they should have sold.
Since they are also looking for income from RRDSL we can no longer just look at oil production and sales to assess profitability.
I would not believe all you read about gold. Obviously those holding gold talk it up and they want currency disasters in order for gold to prosper. The question is can you trust them, and the answer is no because of their self interest. We are still on the way out of a recession which is going to take years to get past. Look at all the poorly performing European nations for a start. This means that governments will be concentrating on supporting the development of industries and companies which should mean that equities will go on a bull run for quite some time yet but obviously with regular corrections. If you look at the gold price graphs since 2000 you will see that gold is still overpriced and could well fall further in 2014. Gold, like most commodities, is a gamble and so you have a 50:50 chance of being right from day to day but overall I personally think it will decline further during the year. All in my opinion of course.
mrtibbles I think your memory is failing you or you just do not know which President passed the legislation allowing 125% mortgages for the less well off. Obviously the banks had to find a way to spread this risk because of its nature and they used a form of collateralised debt obligation which had been successful in enabling banks to spread corporate debt risks. It was of course President Clinton and so his name is forever connected with the toxic CDO's etc. In fact I used to work in Barclays Capital Risk Management and the original CDO's were made up of 95% AAA to BBB company debt and 5% were below BBB. None of the CDO's I checked had any mortgage backed debt which came later and caused the problems. Of course I listened to President Obama this evening and agreed with a lot of what he said although he showed his hypocritical nature by blaming the Republicans for this cutback and that cutback which the Obama administration had deliberately targeted at Republican supporters such as the farmers. It is a pity it has taken him this long to start doing what he promised when he first started which was to stop the Washington ways which included all the vote buying by Presidential earmarks. At last he is talking sense. However he needs an approach where he is bipartisan and doesn't just blame Republicans. The truth is both sides have their special interests which have corrupted Washington for so long. The first thing he should do is knock this debt ceiling nonsense out for good. There is no need for it since, as he said himself, it just allows paying for spending that has already been agreed by Congress. What is needed is controlled budget and I was pleased to hear he would revisit the Affordable Care Act. I have no argument with you regarding health provision for the poor but what was wrong was to reform Healthcare for everyone all at the same time during a recovery from a recession. In my view he should have put in place the first building blocks to replace medicare and medicaid and provide healthcare for the poor. They should then have built on that gradually to ensure each part functioned properly. At the moment it is a minefield and that is where the reform is needed because at present those in the middle and paying taxes will have worse healthcare than both the rich and poor. So currently Obama has taken away their universal right.
All the ruckass in the States is down to Obama's ego and leadership failure. It is more important for him to have Obamacare in place, even though much of it has been seen to be a total disaster waiting to happen, rather than postpone it for a year and amend it so it can work. Believe me I have seen a lot of programmes on how it is so complex that the ordinary man in the street doesn't have a hope of knowing what healthcare policy to have because they are so expensive and still only pay a percentage of the hospital costs. Unfortunately Obama cares more about his "legacy" than the people he says he wants to help.
Three weeks to Q3 Interim statement and as far as I recall there normally is a slight retrace a bit before these announcements with profits being taken and buying in at the lower price. Fully expect EMG share price to improve prior to interim statement when we will find out how well Manny's stint as CEO has started. If we don't see improvements then hopefully we will have details of the new strategies being implemented to rectify matters. They did say it would take time and I hope they can give us an idea of how long it will be. This is a recovery play that needs to be recovering and if it doesn't I also am hopeful that a takeover will give us the reward we are looking for. ATB
Looking at the share trades the final UT showed a sale of 11.7m shares. The imbalance as I understand it means that there were 11.7m shares bought elsewhere ISDX, black pools wherever. So there was strong buying all day not showing up on AIM which resulted in the final auction dropping the sell price by about 1p. All goes to show, in my opinion, that the whole market is dysfunctional and the Government regulators should change the system. If they do not it would logically indicate that they are failing to regulate a market which has no transparency. Time to bring in the police?
I can see your point and know that I would have been better off now if I had sold between 125p and 135p, buying back in when it got down to the 80's. I need to change that mind-set of mine. Anyway things are on the up at present and I am hoping for 110 plus by the year end. GL ATB Rex
Not sure I would want to accept 150p in a takeover since I think this is substantially undervalued particularly now we are getting closer to coming out of the low growth period. I would expect the performance of all Man Group's funds to improve greatly as the market calms down although I realise the MM's will continue to try and make it as volatile as possible. So basically I don't like the thought of having gone through all the bad times for somebody else to profit instead of long term shareholders.
Costain SP currently 285p and acquisition agreement indicates May Gurney shareholders will get 0.8275 of a Costain share for each of their shares. This means that May Gurney shares are currently worth 235.8p not 246p so I suggest you sell them.