Member Info for Redtom

And there you are. South of £40 and falling. How depressing is this. The trend is not looking good, so who knows where the bottom is.

As I said earlier, Broker forecasts and recommendations are meaningless on this stock as demonstrated by the test of £40 as we speak. This is almost certain to go sub £40 and possibly a lot lower. Very disappointing all round.

Broker forecasts make no difference to this stock. They have been forecasting £50-60 for years and it is about to test the £40 mark. There is something about Shire that the institutions do not like or fear that we can not fully appreciate. The results were ok, not brilliant but not too bad. I don't really know what to say as I have no idea where this is going. If this hit £35 or £45 in the next few months, neither would be a surprise. Re the takeover talk, I'm very suspicious about this. I suspect that this is pure rubbish and nothing will come of it. I'm a very disappointed Shire shareholder and I may have to jump ship shortly if it drops much further.

I am rather bemused too. I am hoping that the market is nervous ahead of tomorrow rather than genuinely expecting bad news. AZN's disappointing results & Obamacare fiasco only add to the nervousness. Any previous news from Shire itself indicates that the results will be sound and that the future guidance will be more positive. Given this has been above £50 a couple of times this year (and well above this point in recent years), it is amazing to me that we are around £42 when the market as a whole has been buoyant. A successful integration of Baxalta is key (and synergy savings) to proving that recent acquisitions are value enhancing. I think this huge acquisition still makes the market nervous and Shire needs to provide a positive update on this. Maybe I am being too optimistic and there is some disappointing news to come out, who knows. Assuming the results are reasonably positive, surely this will creep up over the next 12 months to mid/late 40s. Will it become a takeover target? If it has a future (and sustainable) PE of only 10-12 then yes it probably will. Wishful thinking I know, but not to unbelievable if the rumours of last week have any truth in them.

A few articles last night about rumours that other Pharma companies were starting to look at SHP as a takeover target. Also SHP has supposedly hired a defence team. Probably just hot air but it would be very nice if true. This does lead one to speculate - what would be the 'take out' price? I would imagine somewhere in the mid to late £50s as a minimum. But back to reality, a good set of results next week may mean a re-testing of £45.

.

I bought some too but sold today for a quick but modest profit. GL

A bit quiet around here

I thought it better posting here than on other board. Will keep an eye on this.