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I did post on this a while back when I was allocated some Calidus shares which are an Aussie stock. HL have kept it in my ISA but will not deal on it. They said it would be allocated to HSBC who could sell only. The problem has been that this all happened November 2019 and the shares were going to be transferred "in weeks" End of April no sign of the transfer so stuck with these shares which I cannot buy or sell. It did not amount to a lot 3k GBP but a bit of a concern if we acquires any Newcrest shares.
Quite hard to manage them here especially in HL
Is there a Newcrest Chat Board so that we can “listen in” to their side of the story?
Thanks my buying is over. Just holding my shares from a while back. Excessively exposed but very comfortable and unlikely to need loans again ever. Good luck whatever your take on it is
Trying hard to be balanced but while not signing up to some of the excessive guesses, I really cannot see much downside other than a catastrophic set of drill results which seems unlikely given the speed and capacity NCM have thrown at it and statements made. It seems to me that the current share price is well supported even if a modest MRE comes in over the next few weeks. There will be those who sell if the drill results are only very good and expected an instant 60p but with Scallywag etc still to be addressed there is much to like and only a limited prospect of a major retrenchment.
Long standing holder with too much emphasis on GGP. However greatly reassured by many on this board including Paddy and Tiggerman. There is a lot of good material here for the most part and it is much appreciated. One short cautionary note if any transaction involved Newcrest Shares. I acquired some Calidus shares on ASX last November and they still have not been transferred to HL and I can do nothing with them.
Would Newcrest shares be more “fluid”
Currently laid up so please forgive this occupational therapy. I see what we already have as a good cake justifying an sp of at least 6 to 10p. We are looking for the cream on the cake and current drilling especially step outside will provide that and ......there may be a whole new cake as well just up the road. Great prospect!
Many thanks for some very sound comments and advice. As agreed patience is required but confidence in GH and team should leave us reassured and no pressure for further advice from them until there is something substantive to say. Well that has taken a few mins this morning and with pop master has helped pass the morning. Good luck all.
After last weeks craziness, a slow approach is fine. We are progressively moving up trading range blocks. At Xmas we were in the 1.5 - 2 range. That moved up to the 3p and 4p very quickly and we are probably now in the 4.5 to 6p range until the next set of information. So yesterday while a bit extreme was fine. With the broker setting 6p hopefully news will see us moving into the next range of 6-8p unless the news is mind-blowingly spectacular. Happy to have these less than frenzied days consolidating for a while
There must be something causing these huge movements. Volatility is one thing but this is all a bit crazy.
No sign of any news so it must be a coordinated move by MMs
Puzzled but happier than I was at 8.30 this morning
If you told me in December when the share was 1.7 ish that 10 weeks on it would be 4.6p I would have been over the moon. We have moved into a new trading range probably 4 to 6 and will be drifting in that until further real news. As most seasoned veterans say be patient it is a long game.
Nevertheless the downward movement was quite a shock but then the very fast upward trend was a bit of a shock too.
Sandeep will have seen the latest drilling results ahead of last nights bullish comments and this bodes well both in terms of sustained grades and area. I think his comment on fast tracking the best of Haverion to give Telfer a lift is also greatly reducing the timeframe when we can anticipate NCM making some sort of approach. He essentially said we will get the decline work going ASAP subject to regulatory permissions and is now looking for confirmatory drilling’s to pick the spot.
All very positive.
No sandgrounded, I clearly say that 7.5 mill oz is about the 1 billion. So what do you reckon 20 million oz . 3 billion USD or 2.35 billion GBP. 35% of that is 800 million GBP - 4 times our market worth at the moment. That is attractive. It seems that the prospects of 20 mill oz are gradually being brokered in which is of course ( and as expected ) way ahead of the Numis figure.
Please bring it on!
I think I am being dim but would appreciate clarification. If Haverion is worth 1 billion US that is equivalent to about 750 million GBP. However we have ( or will have ) passed to Newcrest 65% leaving us with 35%. Now 35% of 750 million is about 270 million GBP. Our current company value is about 200 million. Clearly 1 billion is based on 7.5 million oz ( 1 p per oz rule) and there are still Scallywag and other sites.
Surely we need both 20 mill oz and an uplift in Au prices to see the GGP mega valuations. People seem to see 25 or 30p.
I am struggling to see how we get to those sort of valuations. Please enlighten me as I seem to have misunderstood the calculation which gets us up mid teens + Hopefully someone more up to speed can educate me
People seem to be struggling to find a negative slant on this. In my mind it is now just a question of scale. The Numis valuation virtually confirms Tier 1 and therefore Newcrest operations so all this left is the MRE. As we have seen 6p = 5.5 mill oz and that should be our baseline. It is virtually impossible to concoct a scenario to get us below that apart from natural catastrophe.
So we will be between 6p and 15/20p by the end of the year depending on the success of the outreach drills. Like many I am impatient but we need to relax and let out very good BOD take this forward and hope for more success in the final drilling round
Many seem disappointed by the fall in Newcrest. You should not be! Newcrest are having problems with falling productivity, reduced reserves and one mine, Cadia , where they cannot operate due to lack of water after droughts. On any market assessment you would be cautious and their shares have fallen back accordingly. GGP May be the answer to their problem and some have called us Newcrest’s White Knight. So forget Newcrest’s share price, they need Haverion to come off very badly so from a GGP perspective this is great news especially in a climate of rising Au prices.
I wonder what proportion of the shares are "sticky" belong to LTH, the odd institutional holder, BOD, etc. Given the amazing results so far you would be expecting the "sticky" proportion to be increasing. This would ultimately mean less available for day trading etc. In my wilder moments I even thought at around 100 million there might be enough of us around to seize control of the bulk of the shares. Sorry, a bit crazy end of week stuff> ( Can we have a Greatland Gold T-shirt? - then when people ask what that is we can tell them we are tomorrow's wealthy!)
Others have already said it but thank you Paddy. You have been an inspiration to the like of myself who were tending to wobble a bit on erratic share movements. Cheers.
Really hoping for consolidation of the progress to date. This may not raise SP much in fact those that are super-hyped about where this is going may be disappointed and sell. If we can build on the 3p + that would be good while we really await resource estimates at which time it is all to play for. Best wishes whatever and thanks to Paddy et al (whoever he is) for the helpful guidance.
Paddy,
Thanks for the response which as usual is spot on. Comments here today are very reassuring for us who are prone to "wobble" a bit & it is a great help. Thanks for your ongoing work which is much appreciated. Like many of a certain age I hope the benefits will not be too long in coming while I appreciate your sentiments about a progressive "build" of the project and SP
Many will remember the Newmont decision and it still hurts! I appreciate the trajectory since has been good and I would hope there will be the best possible results next week. I think many are building too much hope into these and we may have to wait a few months yet. As has been said news that they were still trying to define limits might be our best result even though that means waiting even longer.
Thanks all for your comments. I think that about sums it up that it is not a total write off but very low down the batting order in terms of further work. Useful to remind ourselves that EG is very large as Chippy noted. Thanks for your views I will go back to sleep now while the main event warms up...... where I remain very hopeful.