Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Part 2
It is one of four units at its station in Ratcliffe-on-Soar, Nottingham. The other three were always planned to remain open until September 2024.
Gas supplies are likely to remain extremely tight this year as countries look to refill stocks with much less from Russia, while nuclear power plants in Britain also closed last year.
Meanwhile, more of Britain’s electricity is coming from intermittent wind and solar power, posing challenges for balancing the system.
Uniper said: “As requested by the Government, Uniper is now looking at whether we can make the unit available to run under standard market arrangements until the September 2024 coal phase out date.
“We have prequalified the unit to take part in the capacity market T-1 auction for 2023/24 [an auction for back-up power].
“This means further investment to extend the life of the unit. The power station is set to close at the end of September 2024.”
Separately, National Grid was asked at an industry forum yesterday when it would decide whether to extend its special contingency contracts under which extra coal-fired power is being kept online this winter.
A representative said: “We, like the rest of the industry, have half an eye on next winter... we are continuing to work closely with [the regulator and the government] on what our overall winter response will be for 2023/24”.
Drax and EDF said they had not so far been asked to keep their coal units open longer than this winter. Both are currently planning to shut the units down in March and April this year.
Drax added: “Drax’s strategy is to deliver a coal-free future".
None of the coal-fired power plants asked to stay online this winter have so far been called upon to supply power. Mild weather has helped to lower demand for gas, as well as for heating in France.
A Government spokesman said: “The UK has a secure and diverse energy system, and we remain confident in our security of supply.
“Working closely with Ofgem, National Grid Gas and other key industry organisations, we continuously monitor our energy supply and ensure we are ready for a range of scenarios.
“In line with our net zero target, the Government is planning to phase out unabated coal-fired power generation by the end of 2024.”
I suspect this is responsible for the rise at open this morning.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/coal-power-facility-to-stay-open-for-extra-two-years-in-blow-to-net-zero/ar-AA16em7U
One of Britain's last coal-burning power facilities is to be kept open for two years longer than planned as the energy crisis deals a blow to the green agenda.
The German energy giant Uniper is poised to keep the unit, at its Ratcliffe-on-Soar power station in Nottinghamshire, open until 2024 after an appeal from ministers - after initially intending to shut it in 2022.
National Grid on Wednesday also left the door open for extending the life of other coal-fired plants.
The moves risk hurting Britain’s ambitions to cut carbon dioxide emissions little more than a year after it hosted the COP26 climate conference, and highlights strains on the energy system following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
Coal supplied more than 40pc of Britain’s electricity as recently as 2012, but this has fallen to 1.5pc across 2022.
Under efforts to cut carbon emissions, it has largely been replaced by other sources in the generation mix, such as gas, wind and biomass.
Coal-fired power plants have been rapidly closing as their owners move into greener forms of energy.
Under a target set in October 2021, the Government says Britain will stop using coal to generate electricity altogether - an important step on its path to net zero carbon emissions.
However, last year, Kwasi Kwarteng, then business secretary, asked the owners of units that were due to close in September 2022 to keep them open this winter to prevent blackouts.
His successor Jacob Rees-Mogg then asked Uniper to keep its unit open for next winter (2023/24) as well.
There have been major concerns over electricity shortages amid disruption to gas supplies triggered by Russia’s war on Ukraine and outages in the French nuclear fleet.
EDF, Uniper and Drax agreed to keep units open for back-up supply if needed this winter under special winter contingency contracts with National Grid.
continues................
Good rate again
06/01/2023 00:00:00 06/01/2023 System Entry Calorific Value, Saltfleetby, D+1 41.3900 07/01/2023 12:01:01 L
06/01/2023 00:00:00 06/01/2023 System Entry Energy, Saltfleetby, D+1 1913333.0000 07/01/2023 12:01:01 L
06/01/2023 00:00:00 06/01/2023 System Entry Volume, Saltfleetby, D+1 0.1667 07/01/2023 12:01:01 L
Can anyone explain the reason for the recent disconnect in the Newcastle and Richards Bay coal prices. Both experienced a dip bottoming on 10/11/22, then climbing again until new peaks in early December, since then Newcastle softened until 23/12/22 and has since climbed 7% back up to close to early December levels, but Richards Bay has continued to fall further from the early December high?
I.e. Feb 23 future prices:
RBCT.............: 2/12/22 = $257.4 5/1/23 = $181 -29.7%
Newcastle....: 2/12/22 = $375.8 5/1/23 = $372 -1%
https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/LVG23/interactive-chart
https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/LQG23/interactive-chart
While I wouldn't expect perfect correlation for the different grades/locations, the prices moving in opposite directions seems strange, here's hoping RBCT is about to rerated back up 20+% and lift the TGA price with it.
HowardW thanks for posting your figures and info on the pink sheet. I have found similar previously and can't explain the reason for the big differences. My own less scientific calculations give an H2 average of $276, so pretty close to your spread sheet figure.
H1 figures from my previous notes show H1 was also $276 market price, with TGA getting $240 after a 13% discount, resulting in the £3 pre-tax divi. I would expect the H2 divi to be similar, depending on the affects of the strike and derailment on sales volumes/ reinvestment of cash into Elders etc. ATM I see H1 23 at around $171 average, from my last calculations of forward prices, giving approx. £1.90 divi on projected volumes.
Share price decline in last few days has been brutal, now at similar levels to mid November when coal price was last around $180. Yesterday's RBCT price actually rose slightly (Rotterdam was down!?), here's hoping it carries on up like the last time, with the share price following it back up.
https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/LVH23/futures-prices
Port has been quiet, only 6 ships arrived in the last 10 days and only 2 since the 1st, I assume a result of the strikes, derailment and Christmas reducing available stocks etc, strangely though, the busiest days in this period were over the 25th and the same over NYD?
https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:32.073/centery:-28.816/zoom:14
Broker Rating (released today?):
* ITV : Morgan Stanley cuts target price to 47p from 54p
Short Tracker (updated 13/12/22):
Citadel Advisors Europe Limited 0.92% 0.12% 13 Dec 2022
I found this (link below) but is anyone else aware of any links between Morgan Stanley and Citadel or is this just a coincidence that Morgan Stanley have given what appears to me to be a very low price target?
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3801883-morgan-stanley-hedge-fund-clients-pulled-into-block-trading-probe-bloomberg
12/12/2022 00:00:00 12/12/2022 System Entry Calorific Value, Saltfleetby, D+1 41.1900 13/12/2022 12:01:00 L
12/12/2022 00:00:00 12/12/2022 System Entry Energy, Saltfleetby, D+1 1727778.0000 13/12/2022 12:01:00 L
12/12/2022 00:00:00 12/12/2022 System Entry Volume, Saltfleetby, D+1 0.1511 13/12/2022 12:01:00 L
Yesterday's flow figure:
07/12/2022 00:00:00 07/12/2022 System Entry Energy, Saltfleetby, D+1 1878889.0000 08/12/2022 12:01:01 L
07/12/2022 00:00:00 07/12/2022 System Entry Volume, Saltfleetby, D+1 0.1642 08/12/2022 12:01:01 L
Hopefully a typo that will soon be corrected.
The last warrants RNS on 21/11/22 had:
"Following the issue of the New Ordinary Shares, the Company will have 2,938,770,014 Ordinary Shares in issue, each share carrying the right to one vote (the "Enlarged Issued Share Capital"), each share carrying the right to one vote. The Company does not hold any Ordinary Shares in treasury."
so unless I'm missing something today's "Following the issue of the New Ordinary Shares, the Company will have 3,939,270,014 Ordinary Shares in issue" is about a billion out?
I'm under no illusion that this will solve the problem, but it's another step in the right direction.
https://twitter.com/ReliableTFR/status/1598622474677075968?s=20&t=xzbqjbUuLY4HchEw5sy2ig
Tiger looks like you have fallen for the same trap I did first thing this morning. I never thought the exchange rate would be moving so much, so quickly, as I was unaware of the SA political bombshell.
SA exchange closed at 14.50 GMT when; ZAR/GBP 21.735, TGA SA @ 323.96 = to £14.90, LSE price for TGA at 14:50 approx. £14.93, so bang on accounting for roundings.
Fresh Tweet:
S.African president's spokesman says announcement imminent after misconduct report
https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1598306036552802309?s=20&t=HETzwjNTzPS2bwNcdQrJ_w