Member Info for ReasonMan

Steve your first comment was fine, this one is getting slightly more condescending. I have heard the interviews, read the RNSs and repeatedly espoused my belief that the upside is much greater than the downside here. So please dial it down.

"Listen to the interview and that should end any doubts you have about the 2m tons."

You say that Steve, but clearly not everyone believes, or they wouldn't be selling anywhere near to 6p as they still are, assuming it is not an old MM stockpile being gobbled up. Colin used words like 'wish' and 'dream' although he corrected himself on the latter. Don't get me wrong I feel excited and confident but still want cold hard data.

@Cyberiachas great lyrics to The Gambler. Union Of The Snake by Duran back at ya.

Thanks Captainbob, that immediately makes me feel a lot better, I did think we were more like 0.25+ average which suggests we are already over 1m CU and say 0.3 x 500m possibly over 1.5m.

Using the lower end of the figures mentioned, 400mt 'rock' x 0.15 = 600k tons CU vouched for so far. On that basis, to confirm the 2mt we would need in total c1.3bn tons of 'rock', or (up to ) another 900mt to get to the 2mt CU mark. To me this would better explain the share price as it sits right now, as it suggests we are only a third of the way to proving the 2mt. However I feel it is probable that this calculation is too simplistic or incomplete, so would appreciate someone putting me straight.

Say it transpires we have less than 2mt, say 1.5mt, at Racecourse , and say more than bits and pieces at Ascot but not enough at commercial level. This seems a possible scenario. Would this make Australia worthless, or is there still a significant residual value there? Excuse me if this is a novice question, just wondering if the 2mt is all or nothing; in the new interview Colin is very eloquent and positive, but not exactly saying 'slam dunk'.

I understand people's excitement about mini bits of momentum, but let's face it, we were 5.80 a few weeks ago and since then we have had, along with the good drill we already knew about, a couple of results that were, light in discovery shall we say, but not really important because they were on the periphery of the find. What I am trying to say is, we don't need to worry about the intra-day fluctuations; if this one is a goer it is 18p+. If Racecourse/Ascot falls short, Colin, given what he has been signalling for a long time now, will have a lot of explaining to do, although he is not a young man so how much will that matter. If it comes good, Colin will be venerated by a whole generation of sector investors. The stakes are high. And it feels the upside increasingly dwarves the downside. Mind you, aged about six I was allowed a bet on Red Rum in the Grand National and it was about the only year it didn't win so what do I know!

One caveat, I do not want to see management cashing in their options at below 14-15p, as to me that would be a clear signal that there is not much upside past 15p and that some of the calculations didn't work out. But some water to go under the bridge before then.

TBH hoping it stays at this level for another three 1/2 months then can double up with new funds, and then go do something else for a year or two and wait for the 18p+. I think the clincher for many would be seeing the regular revenue coming from the other assets which as well as providing cash would massively firm up the base of the share, and ultimately of course the eventual confirmation of the Racecourse 2mt, the timing of which is I guess is still 6-18 months off. Ascot is semi-irrelevant to the big win, nevertheless a potential giant cherry on the cake.

The price went up 20-25% then fizzled back down again. The feeling is that the market wants to know if the porphyry has legs before it re-rates the stock. Also some would-be investors may be thinking that the company will need more capital to prove up the find, but the company has commented more than once that more capital is not required, with good cash at bank and regular income to come in from Africa, but again the market probably wants to see this income stream happening first. All of which means this share has tremendously more potential than previously, with no change in the risk profile , and the share can still be bought at the same price as it was prior to the 2nd porphyry find. Go figure.

Amazing how a few share trades worth pennies can push the share price down so much. Who is selling such tiny amounts? I guess the MMs always have some to sell, and maybe it is just opportunistic purchasers having a nibble.

It occurs to me that for whatever reason the share price here will never reflect the true value of this holding, not until the company or its main assets are sold; it just seems a perenially unfavoured/undervalued stock based on everything we know and our various crude calculations. In that case the only two things that matter are how much extractable pay-dirt we are sitting on and what price it will fetch. And that will come down to how skilfully management can sell whatever we possess. The day to day share price here I realise has zero impact on any of that, and those of us who want to maximise profits must wait for the whole story to unfold.

I've noticed this in a few SME shares recently drifting down, as the institutions traditionally favour the bigger boys in still turbulent times, there is another company I know very well that are seriously under-valued on every level bar the current bearish sentiment in its sector. It feels exactly the same here, some patience combined with (overall) positive data and the prize is there. I won't be reviewing this investment until we get to Iceberg's 18p even if it takes two more years or more; even then, by my conservative workings that number looks very much on the low-ball side, as he himself said. But still work to be done.

There is a lot to play for here, much more than I realised, and the presentation was far and away the most useful indicator of where we are and how everything sits. It feels like by the end of the year we will have a very good idea of which way this one is going to go. It would be very useful to understand what the chances are of confirming a mid-level resource, as I don't understand why if there is say, a 50pc chance of economic viability producing say a net £200m sale, why the MC is not close to £100m (and that's not including the other assets). A know there are a host of variables but someone enlighten me.

"Reason. Yes it had changed. We got to 7p on the back of great drilling results and whether or not people's expectations were misplaced over the assays they were perceived as poorand hence the drop.
Market will be expecting something juicy before we see any decent rise."

Thanks for the above reply 3Card . While it was clear that the 2nd and 3rd assays weren't perceived as necessarily favourable, the majority of the sp drop had already occurred before they were published , I'm now assuming because the market decided 'no news is bad news' when it took longer than expected to publish these assays, bearing in mind CB's alleged penchant for delivering good news fast. And the market has continued to lose confidence even with the increased drill area, which could be construed as a long-shot move designed to maintain project momentum and interest. My opinion FWIW is that way too much has been made from a few scattered pin-pricks either good or bad, and it is all completely in the balance; but the possible upside of 20p+, plus the residual value from the other projects, plus the cash in the bank, makes a 4p sp more or less a free hit chance of perhaps quintupling your investment. Would love to hear a counter-argument though as I am still new to, if not unsuccessful in, this sector.

What I don't understand about people selling is that nearly the whole game is still in front of us. The market value is going to end up being either negligible or into the hundreds of millions depending on Bushranger. Has the win or lose equation changed much since we were at say 7p? What are the odds of a successful outcome (of Bushranger achieving a big enough volume to sell). The current price seems to suggest at most a 20% chance of success, notwithstanding factoring in any negative betting on future fluctuations in the copper price. It that a fair reflection?

Got tucked into this again just bought more; am ignoring the smoke and mirrors, the newsflow is fine for what is clearly a medium term play. I do not believe significantly adverse results are being held back under whatever premise.

Reading your last few efforts you're quite filterable yourself ;)

Thanks Cygnus makes sense and about what I thought, i.e project momentum. MoreThan, in my experience most fundraisings where cash is needed to fund the business usually carries a signficant dilutive tariff. A company I know well diluted significantly on their fundraise last year, but the success of the raise and the liquidity it brought underpinned confidence, and the price has more than doubled now. The dilution here is light in comparison.

Can I ask what is probably a novice question, I haven't invested directly in this sector before: why would the company raise additional funds for the second phase of drilling before they knew the results of the assays for 2,3,5 & 6? If these remaining assays came out flat as a pancake further drilling would presumably have a high probability of being good money after bad. As an outsider, the logical sequence of events to me would be to organise Phase Two only after the assay results of Phase One were known, unless there was sufficient compelling evidence from what is already known about Phase One to progress (and thereby maintain project momentum). The Phase Two programme and the underpinning valuation of the latest fundraising are reasons to be very excited about where this is going, but it would be good to understand the thinking.

I see this is as another significant positive development, the find is proving up more and more, and listed company chairmen do not use phrases such as 'very pleased' lightly.