Member Info for ReasonMan

I suspect Marstons have been trading relatively flat L4L over the past six weeks since H1, with the summer weather being fairly lousy. However I have upped my holding, on the basis of the reducing costs profile, energy and food have trended down well, and still have a way to go, and I have a good insight on how pubs trading is generally holding up well. I think AA has weathered the storm well, and with wage inflation now above general inflation these form a collective of positive indicators that have not been there for some time. On the flipside property values are softening and so the next estate valuation will be interesting. Overall though , if trading holds up and the debt continues to be well-managed and reduced, potentially with more selective disposals, there appears to be a very significant value opportunity even on a conservative valuation of the estate.

If he was me, and he was quoting on here, who is he?
"I wouldn't say I was in the top ten posters. But I was in the top one.”
“We discuss it for 20 minutes and then we decide I was right”
“I’m a little bit of an idealist, I do believe in fairies, and that is my outlook.”
Ok here’s the giveaway,
“The River Trent is lovely, I know because I have walked on it for 18 years”

Some great Cloughie quotes right there howezap :)

That is pretty compelling. If the central overhead remains within £2-£3.5m per the last two years' accounts, that would make for a tidy bottom line in its own right.

I guess if it uneconomical and it has no alternative use its value is roughly zero. So I think that has to be the starting point.

I sold back in March after seeing the CB interview where he used the words 'wish' and 'dream' to describe his expectations for the 2mt existing. It was/is a high-risk investment, and it is part of CB's job to be a salesman and add a positive spin; and unsurprisingly he didn't/doesn't know what lies beneath much better than anyone else. I might re-invest, but I would want reassurance of XTR's profitability based on the future performance of its existing revenue-earning assets, with central overheads deducted, and by how much. And then see what that looks like versus the current £20m+ market value. The value of any other supposed asset seems too difficult to quantify with any accuracy.

Prudent move to slow down expansion with 2023 likely to slow down for most and cash retention important, however Nightcap have the advantage of having a young fresh estate with some highly capable operators so I expect this one to buck the trend and fly along next year, and with luck we will see the squeeze easing by this time next year- there rarely seems to have been truly optimal trading conditions in the last fifteen years and Be At One for one have proved what can be achieved in such times.

Putting Racecourse out of the equation for a moment, could anyone provide their back of a cigarette packet valuation of each of the remainder of Xtract's assets? For basic example, Manica, X estimated annual sustainable earnings multiplied by Y years = Z value? I don't think I have seen that anywhere and it would be a helpful yardstick for somebody like myself who is not an expert in this sector hoping for some reassurance that the non-Racecourse assets justify a fair element of the current Market Cap. Cheers

I need to get a different trading platform I was offered 5.1!

Was going to buy back in but there is over a 7% spread on the Bid Ask on this share, MM's taking the p*ss a bit..

Steve the sarcasm is as usual side-splitting, however better still if those rose-tinted glasses gave you x-ray vision to go find the massive additional deposits required to render Rick's prediction baseless.

There is still work to be done from all the evidence provided, the 2mt is not yet proven and Ascot is an as yet unknown quantity, that is why the MV sits where it does. However it only needs one big positive piece of news on the find side or deal side to rocket this share into orbit, the potential proximity and scale of this is very exciting.

Yeah if I recall it was pretty much along the lines of my questioning the huge confidence that there was 2mt in the ground at Racecourse, the great unknown, and you didn't seem to like that. Obviously if there IS 2mt in there I couldn't be happier! ;)

Well, Steve4077 is respected, until you say anything that isn't 100% positive about this share then he is liable to round on you with a misplaced and unearned condescension.

Yep a discounted figure granted .. but glad you've already counted it Littlewing good to know it's there ;)

My cigarette packet maths is as follows. Base value from African assets minimum 3p. Add upside from Australia , if Racecourse exit successful (based on Iceberg's previous maths) = minimum 15p, for a total of 18p. Probability of Australia being successful is the only other input, which is the great unknown, but based on current knowns I put at minimum 2/3. 15p x 2/3s = 10p. = 13p all in. Ok, stick in a further 25% discount. On that basis current price should be minimum 10p, and probably 12-13p. That's all without any value attributed to Ascot or Footrot. Keep the faith folks.

Although I always go back to that we will be judged by what we find in the ground, it seems like there a momentum of (new?) buyers who have determined that the bet here is way cheap at 5ps and 6ps..or 7p or 8p or 10p, we're shooting way higher. But let's see.

Despite one or two of my comments on here being perceived as negative, basically just pointing out that there is still work to be done, the lowest I will sell is 18p based on Iceberg's low-ball calculation from some time ago, so kind of all or nothing for me. But if we start seeing sustained strong data coming out of Ascot that 18p will be revised up accordingly. This is a very exciting share. I think if we can get the SP up to 10p with news getting us nearer to the 2mt I think the momentum could take on a life of its own.

i understand much better now why the mv is 40m and not 100m or more, in poker parlance we have a possible flush and now a possible straight both needing another make up card , probably two in the case of Ascot. We do not have three of a kind looking to make a full house. I'm fine with that risk but let's call it how it is.

Hi Andrew, hopefully not 2 as surely price-sensitive information needs to be divulged in a timely fashion. 3 is very very likely based on rumours on this board and beyond.. although everything indicates that we must be patient until June for something akin to a silver bullet. That's not very long to wait, considering the potential upside, which we all know has moved from possible a year ago to, I think, probable.

That's it! We're on the climb..