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Thank you too TmT.
RA
Thanks sclemiel and Welsh Falcon. I suspected that, without an MRE, nothing could be recorded on the balance sheet as it would be unsubstantiated. Any promises of future potential worth could only come in the commentary, and even then, probably without any quantities. Roll on the MRE (or Mineral Inferred Estimate as it was called in last week's RNS).
Thanks and ATB
RA
Anyone with an accountancy background might be able to help..
In the annual statement of accounts, there should be a record of the valuation of fixed assets such as plant an machinery.
In the case of mining companies, how do they record the value of those assets which are still in the ground.....worse still, how do they value assets which are unquantified and still in the ground. Point of the question is around Newcrest upcoming financial report....will we be given any sort of indication of how much Newcrest is valuing Hav. Somehow, I suspect that the account will not go into this level of detail abd even if they did, any current valuation of Hav would be significantly underestimated as it is, as yet, unquantified. Any thoughts??
Regards and ATB.
RA
Mr Partridge. Good post which refected many of the potential concerns that I had a few weeks ago. Following a rather interesting debate on here, I was able to record the various potential risks and their mitigations. BottleRocket took the final post and retained it on the ggphelp.co.uk website - under Private Investor Findings and then Rational Awareness - go take a look. Suffice to say, following the debate, I am still invested and have even topped up, still convinced that this company is well run and has a ways to go.
Regards and GLA
RA
Tmt and SoS. I too thought that they would need to push back the MRE because they were still trying to identify the limits of Havieron. This isn't good news for NCM or GGP. NCM, because they probs need an MRE to get funding to start decline and get to the point where Hav can start feeding Tender. GGP, because they will want to fill the coffers when NCM take up the option (I hope) of the additional 5%. In the latest report, they are not talking about and MRE but a Maiden inferred estimate by second half of 2020. I'm thinking that a MIE would enable progress to be made on decline and possibly a down payment for the additional 5%. The MIE would then be updated as further info becomes available. Let's remember that it is in both NCM and GGP's interest to keep momentum - unless NCM want to get GGP cash-strapped ready for takeover or to reduce GGP's negotiating position. Personally, I believe that SB and GH respect each other's position and would like to retain the symbiotic relationship.
ATB
RA
RichGas - it's ggphelp.co.uk
Just buy GGP and let it find it's true value in the light of new, discoveries and the POG.
RA
As I was typing, the cherry popped. New all time high for POG.
RA
POG is $1 away from all time high at 1895. It's ripped through the 1800s in a matter of a few weeks. All we need now is a Hav MRE, some results from the various targets in Scallywag and we should be able to have a stab at a more accurate valuation of GGP. I'm sure it ain't 14p per share. Question is how do we monetise it because all the money seems to be chasing quick wins - no-one seems to have any patience any more!
ATB, let's hope for more news soon.
RA
Thanks paddy, nice and clear......shucks.
RA
@biddwolf. Yes the jv only covers 12 blocks. GGP are free to do what they want (with appropriate permissions) which is why GGP have commissioned exploratory drills in Scallywag - nothing to do with JV and Newcrest apart from NCM have first refusal on anything found by GGP in Paterson.
Regards
RA
@paddygal. Recognise that lots of questions coming your way today, so here's another if possible.
The JV is limited to 12 blocks in the Havieron tenement around lake Havieron. What are the dimensions of each block and how close would the "completed" ellipse be getting to the border of the 12 blocks? (Ok 2 questions).
Anything outside the 12 blocks but on GGP tenement is 100% GGP.
Regards and thanks in anticipation.
RA
Are we expecting anything on scallywag tonight? This is an NCM update and, at present, they have no involvement in scally through the JV. If we were to get a Sally update, it would be from GGP.
IMHO
ATB
RA
Hi Tmt. Yes, agree that there are plenty of variables which need to be considered to calculate a value for price of gold in the ground; POG, quality of gold deposit, AISC, discount factor, mine life, quantity of deposit and risk to name a few. That's why price of gold in the ground is much lower than POG in your hand. The point still remains that each $ increase in POG will have a not insignificant impact in the value of our company which should eventually flow through to the SP. The hypothetical value I used for price of gold in the ground has no real bearing on the correlation between POG and SP. As investors, we should all be aware of that. I think POG still has a way to go so any dips do not concern me at present.
ATB
RA
Hi Tmt. It was my post which had the back of a fag packet calc on relationship between gold and sp. Each $40 increase in POG should be worth 1p on our sp. Agree that I had not accommodated Aus tax. On your other point, I would suggest that a $1 increase in POG would lead to a$1 increase in the value of gold in the ground. The POG doe not affect the cost to mine. All imho.
Regards
RA
Further to my last, assuming 5m Oz at Hav, every $ increase in the POG should be a further $1.5m on our market cap. $40 increase should equate to around 1p per share. POG is hitting recent highs and shows little sign of abating.
RA
So, if been wondering why this share is as low as it is. If we look simply at Hav, assume 5m Oz gold. We own 30% at end of phase 4 ie 1.5m Oz. Therefore, market cap says that gold in the ground is rated at around $400. All of these figures appear conservative to me and we haven't even included the other tenements in that valuation, Scallywag, EG, Kraken, London etc. Market cap just doesn't look right. My guess is that all the free money is being attracted to potential quicker gains in this extremely volatile market - why wouldn't it be? The majority of the poster are LTHs and can see that our time will come, possibly quite soon. Unless the IIs get involved with a long-term viewpoint (ie buy and hold), I suspect the SP will continue to fluctuate in rather a strange manner - but the general direction has to be upward as we receive more and more news from GGP activities in the field. I'm happy to ride the bumps in the road because the final destination is a much improved SP.
Sitting on my hands as advised by Paddy.
ATB
RA
Pennies to Pounds - Yes, he did sell some shares but this was at the same time as he purchsed a significantly larger number. The sale was simply to fund the tax element of the benefit and is a common practice when taking up options.
Regards
RA
Mercman - All this talk about you and your wife, mirrors and spreadbetting positions!!! What sort of film would this be??
Let's all hope that the educated "gamble" works for all of us.
Regards
RA
TomE - In a very similar position as yourself, am convinced that there is more in this share, especially next week. Scally and other tenements could add even further.
This was why I asked the question last week regarding risks. Every now and then I consider what it would take for it to go wrong:
1. Complete crash in the price of gold - mmmmm I don't think so.
2. MRE shows that Hav is significantly less than we have been led to believe - well GH and NCM have both been saying that this is a significant find with SB wanting to start mining tomorrow.
3. It all takes too much time and GH goes for a cash call - he has already said that he would not dilute further but would take loans!!
4. Either by fair means or foul, some form of corporate action has us being bought out (either company or Hav alone) at a knockdown price. Here I have to have confidence that GH, CB and our BoD will not allow this to happen.
Like you, I have determined that the risks are clearly outweighed by the potential rewards and am therefore relatively comfortable with my rather overweight position.
Unlike you, my average is much closer to the current SP so I do not have as much wiggle room for comfort. This is why I am keen to see the results next week and the impact that they will have on the SP - this will put me in a more comfortable position.
Regards
RA