Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Warda, i have been a Asos supplier since they started in the Strand with one buyer, since Covid the whole supply chain has been a mess, on both reliability and cost, Asos and others have been very slow to address, however they are now firmly putting out the right noises and as someone who is heavily involved with them on supply it is good to hear that Jose is not burying his head in the sand and is being open and honest in recognising the many issues and in addressing them it is already being felt, i still remain cautious on the impact of consumer sentiment given the climate, never the less supply costs are def falling. In coming months i think we will be looking at graphs of extremes on raw materials with big mountains as the steep highs are followed by steep lows again it's already happening
Many of the strategies mentioned in the statement started happening at the coal face about a month ago, i personally think that the inventory situation should have been dealt with much much earlier but the new CEO has i think grasped the fundamentals with comments like speed to market and focus on fashion, i think Jose is a lot sharper that Nick B, who was a nice guy but i think he perhaps rode a nice big steady wave, this sentence in particular stood out as a bit of dig
" After years of high growth, the operating model has become inefficient" the overriding sentiment to me says we became complacent and ill disciplined. The path he has now laid is the correct one, he is ticking all the boxes, we just have to hope that external events do not impinge on the route too much.
As we all know like many sourcing out of Far East costs re freight and raw materials were horrific in last year, however again as you're perhaps aware the cotton px has dropped back to sensible levels and is almost half the price or where it was in the May peak, i can tell you that fabric prices from mills have dropped dramatically. Freight costs have also plunged by nearly 70%.
What is interesting specific to Asos is that from the 01/09/22 they switched to Maersk for shipping, this followed a year of absolute carnage, previous incumbent shipper Ex origin dates to Dc upwards of anything from 15 to in some cases 22 weeks, it was crazy position with 2021 Xmas jumpers and jkts arriving in January this year and missing season, these all went into dark storage, of course this stock is paid for and cannot have helped cash flow, the stock is still very relevant and is now coming out of storage and onto the site pages. Maersk i u/s has committed from origin to DC 8/9 weeks and less in some cases, more importantly Asos have order visibility, Merchandisers trying to previously control intake dates had an impossible task, whilst of course we are in the deep dark woods the supply chain under Maersk is now at least smoothing out and becoming containers whilst much much cheaper are also now more visible and easier to control.
China as a source is still important but it is becoming less desired, India is becoming key, in general it's more flexible, offering multiple product casualwear across woven and jersey, and has a good laundered handwriting plus in many ways easier in communication, they do have to sort the visa issue out tho which is not currently fit for purpose. A key date is next week on the 24th, if if if if the trade deal goes through either in part or full then i believe textiles will be a shoe in, duty will be scrapped, Asos buying FOB means this will go straight onto the Asos bottom line, on ave about 9.4% and depending on the date it kicks in will be of immediate benefit not yet accounted for.
Returns blight but are reducing, typically in young fashion sector when the going gets tough the consumer actually buys less low quality items and invests in higher quality product that they have more of an attachment with and this is reflected in lower return rates with purchases far more considered.
Asos line buys for SS23 are very very tight, they are trading last minute with critical path cut off dates for intake being closely adhered to, they can then contract buy in line with demand or not as hopefully case will be!
BTW Just in case anyone missed it, loads of news re this out there but from the paper that is prob same demo as shein customer a damning article today,
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/20135295/shein-machine-fashion-hauls-all4-human-rights/
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/20135295/shein-machine-fashion-hauls-all4-human-rights/
https://www.channel4.com/programmes/inside-the-shein-machine-untold
Not sure if this has been posted but a decent breakdown of events, also look at comments where this mornings rns is discussed.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4546636-asos-is-a-strong-buy
JFYI
Shipping costs plummeting, down 73% on Far East to US routings, we ship direct to US for Asos, costs heading towards a 2 year low to UK .
Cotton price continue to fall and currently back to levels from year and a half ago, still dropping.
Bloomberg mentioning revenge Christmas as Energy impact in UK softens as people keen to splurge after awful couple of years.
If this war ramps up then all bets off but costs on raw materials and supply chain are at least falling.
GY- for you.
https://www.style-hair-magazine.com/lancome-vs-estee-lauder/
GY you're paranoid, not a little test just asked you what Brands you think Debs should have on there that are not on there, the marketplace Brands will eb and flow and bizarrely if one of these gets on a alphabetical list then it's being promo'd !!
Only one you seem fixated on is EL, sure i get it as you see it a big sh~~~ty negative stick to beat everyone with but how do you think Lancome stacks up against EL, looks good to me but in essence i haven't a clue and neither have you, a straw poll in office here says same but bit younger, never less BH Group have moved on and one make up Brand will not make or break Debs or the Group for that matter.
If you really are interested in this share and not just arguing as your a bored keyboard warrior then look at the spread of websites BHG have and offer an opinion of what could be done better that the founders have totally overlooked or missed.
CY-Firstly i'm not blaming you !! this is a debate. I'm trying to give a balanced view thru my knowledge and also some give some actuals.
Tons of stores do Branded watches and perfumes etc but do not stock the Branded clothing, there is no crime to list these, as for detail, you clearly stated that these Brands were being given pride of place, i can see you are squirming a bit on this because to turn round and call it turn of phrase is as you know full well is get out clause.
Is your idea of sticking a Brand on a list promoting it !!! Mine is actually giving it precious space on the landing pages and i'm happy with the ones they are doing this with because they are on message.
As for EL you maybe correct but not my area of expertise so i won't comment other than to say Lancome V EL , plus's and minuses please enlighten me?
Yep T4G looking good and i would urge anyone who is invested in the Group to go look at all 13 Brands inc Debs, thats 13 stand alone web sites, i think they all look very sharp except perhaps Wallis and surprisingly PLT, how ev's Boo Hoo Man , Coast, Oasis, Karen Millen, Ngal are the standouts for me, it's clear a lot of time and effort has been put in to get each offer on message for each Demo across smart and casual, this is not easy to pull off but they are ticking so many boxes across each Demo and price points, the sum of part is the very essence of why these acquisitions were important, i cannot see a base they have not covered.
GY -Quote What’s wrong with referencing Tommy Hilfigure? Other than your opinion? Boohoo seem proud to put it price of place on Debenhams so what evidence do you have other than your opinion
I've searched hi and low for TH, is it in a section called pride and place, because it's on none of the landing pages , it's not even in more Brands to Love , it's not mentioned on the Mens landing page, it's not on New in, I did just in case check Lingerie but as i suspected not in there, then Bingo found it under T 4th down on the Brands Index.
So again just bringing some balance and perspective and whilst yes some is my experienced opinion the above is actually fact, in black and white, how ev's i'm happy to admit if i'm wrong, i may have missed the pride and place TH page, please feel free to post link.
GY -Simple fact is that you quote Brands on here like some expert, i cannot see anywhere on the Debs landing page where they are shouting out Brands they are not engaged in and def none of the ones you have mentioned.
What you have done is said that they have all these great Brands they shout out but they only sell watches etc, so whilst you didn't mention them i assume you mean Armani et al as these are pretty much the main ones that also do clothing but Debs don;t stock.
To sum up i think the Founders have far greater knowledge than you and even me !!! of what they should be stocking, buying and the Brands they are promoting on the landing pages look strong, in my humble opinion of 30 years in the fashion biz.
So of course you can have an opinion but when through my extensive knowledge i see it's blatantly wrong then i see it only fair to give balance.
GY quote
And on Mike ashley that’s wrong he didn’t want out. He’s even suing the old practitioners now over the fact he didn’t get Debenhams. So that’s wrong on your part
As for being wrong not sure if you misunderstood my comment or not aware, i was talking about Mike Ashley stepping down during an incoming storm and his son in law being given a ton of dosh as successor.
GY your words were actually
Better to ask yourself why the top beauty and fashion brands won’t go near Debenhams yet they do sell via online pure plays! AND then went on to site Tommy and DKNY only flogging watches on there.
Whether BH has made a success of Debs, well as we stand here today, no, despite what some have said on here about it being oven ready it never really was and given current climate you and others can knock the hell out of it as it really isn't difficult to do so given we have had crisis after crisis but to say Tommy or DKNY or even EL the reason why is utter c###p.
The Clothing Brands they have are on message, you may not get this because you don't u/s the industry, Principles is looking sharper than it has ever done, Joe Browns (whilst not my cuppa tea) is a big success story. For you to preach what Brands should be on there is hilarious. The people involved at the heart of the BH Group offer are still the founders, they live and breathe Fashion every single day, they are not some team air dropped in from successes at CarPhone Warehouse or Pets at Home, they have this trade in coursing through there veins.
You want Debs to have Clothing Ranges from who on their site, Hugo Boss, Versace, Armani !!! your even further off the radar than i thought your were, the landing page quite rightly focuses on in house margin makers.
My Shein comment isn't irrelevant, your quoting them every minute, however unlike BH you totally ignore the ESG back story, which will and is coming home to roost.
We are now in the 3rd European crisis in row, you can sling whatever mud you want doesn't mean your right, given the many years experience of the founders, (who most importantly are still at the helm )and from what i see i think that BH can weather this storm and when it passes it is well positioned with all it's Brands within the BH Group not just Debs to make significant gains and impact on at least the UK Clothing market, btw Karen Millen also looking very strong at mo and with Christmas approaching it bodes well, given current climate perhaps not to smash it out the park but at least put in a steady performance, which at present all we can hope for.
GY point is that you make statements all the time on here about what Debs fashion, Shein fashion, BH fashion, example was when you posted this.
Quote
Debenhams was a ageing brand and boohoo have failed to take it to pure online
Mike Ashley would have had a different model for it (store based) and merged with Fraser’s. To say this validates just a view on Debenhams is a bit loose as Mike likely wanted this for an entirely different reason to boohoo and the strategy would have been entirely different
Better to ask yourself why the top beauty and fashion brands won’t go near Debenhams yet they do sell via online pure plays!
Unquote
Now there is so much in this that is wrong but i don't have time to spend all day on here but if i simply take the last paragraph, with Debenhams acquisition, BH group now has more demo depth on Womenswear than it ever had, go on look at all the clothing offer and the amount of options, most own buy and of course some 3rd party, Debenhams demo is not Tommy or DKNY , btw both of these are tired as hell, i'd rather have Joe Browns or Blue Vanilla than a Tommy knit with Tommy splashed all over it, these Brands are very on message and bang on the Debs demo.
My point is that giving BH Group advice on what they should or shouldn't be stocking is deffo not your strength, as for Shein don't get me started they even make the old Leics BH look like Mother Teresa.
Mike Ashley btw way got out just as the clouds started to darken, left his son in law to face the impending storm, i'm sure he will be fine though, he can build a shelter with the 21m he received for facing the deluge that's about to rain down.
PS-If you like a bit of Tommy Bling then hot foot it down to one of Mikes Flannels Stores, you'll love it in there, all the Brands you can ever desire, you can even buy yourself a Golden Chain to match those Golden Years.
Cal ,
Topshop was all about Indie UK, Brit Pop and Kate Moss epitomised that, you have to constantly nail your colours to the mast in this game, to do this teams have to understand the dna and you have to leave them to it, let them buy, don't question the colour of a button, micro manage and buy by committee, sounds simple but hard to achieve, TS/TM did.
BH / PLT understand more than anyone the Glam Girl side of the business, they will adapt as they see fit, they get the dna it's why they are where they are, BOO stands for GLAM, power glam, 80's glam, LA glam, whatever the trend they have to nail it. Their target audience is GLAM.
Goldenyears , i love your fashion guruness, did you ever answer this, nooooo didn't think so.
Goldenyears, LoL, i forgot you were a fashion and beauty guru.
1)Name the top ten Fashion brands that Debenhams used to run in it's heyday before it's demise.
2)Name the current top ten Fashion Brands that you refer to that won't now go near Debenhams ?
Cala upside of BH is pretty much what i've said that they have the right people whose very soul goes to the heart of this Brand so they are the best people to see it through the storm, people on here thinking they know more about a Brand than the founders are just " i used be contender" boxers, when the market turns back to retail away from oil, gilts, bonds, which it will then it will be best placed to take advantage.
Back into the early 90's Next shares tanked (go back see where they were at!!!) , they wrote to suppliers asking them if they believed in the Brand then buy shares in us, many did, then ones who didn't still talk about the regret to this day.
If your L/T on this share ignore the S/T noise.