Last of the oil!13 Apr 2026 21:23
The last oil tankers to traverse the Strait of Hormuz before the outbreak of war will reach refineries in the coming days, in a pivotal moment analysts warn could herald physical shortages in Europe and the US within weeks.
The final ships to clear the strait before the Iran war began on February 28 are expected to reach their destination in Malaysia and Australia by April 20, intensifying the supply shock already rippling across Asia.
But with Asian refineries responding by buying up a record number of crude oil cargoes that would normally have sailed to Europe and the US, analysts said that refiners in some of the world’s wealthiest countries may soon also face shortages.
“It will hit the west in a month when all the Asian cargoes bought leave the Atlantic basin,” said Nic Dyer, an analyst at Energy Aspects.
“Refineries in Europe and the US will also have to cut runs from next month to share the pain of the shortage.”
Dyer said Asia refineries were already reducing operations because of issues in accessing enough crude oil, even as they drew down strategic reserves and bought record volumes of Atlantic basin crude from the US, Canada, the North Sea, South America and Africa.
Most prewar deliveries to Asia, which sources about 80 per cent of its crude from the Middle East, stopped around April 1, although at least one cargo of Iraqi oil to Malaysia is expected to land this week.
The last prewar deliveries to the US are set to end this week, while those to Africa had landed by April 10, according to JPMorgan. Denmark received its last jet fuel cargo from Kuwait at the weekend, the Wall Street bank said.
Signs of growing strain in the physical market have emerged in the past week, with prices for cargoes for immediate delivery soaring well above future contracts.
Forties Blend, a North Sea grade, soared close to $149 a barrel on Monday, above the highs reached on the eve of the 2008 financial crisis, according to LSEG data. This is an uncommonly large premium over the price of Brent crude futures, which are trading at about $100 a barrel, and reflects refiners’ desperation to secure supplies.
“Signs are emerging that the system may be coming under increasing strain,” said Natasha Kaneva, a JPMorgan analyst.
“European and Asian refiners are competing aggressively for the remaining cargoes, driving spot Brent price — more directly tied to prompt physical delivery than Brent futures — to record highs.”
The last prewar deliveries coincide with the imposition on Monday of a US naval embargo on the strait, which carried about a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies before the war.
Donald Trump has suggested any vessels attempting to breach the US blockade could be seized, as Washington attempts to pressure Iran by preventing it from shipping oil to China.
“The Strait of Hormuz is still effectively closed and it’s unclear how the strait reopens to a state of normalcy. Physical barrels remain lo
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