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Was coming. This is more Egypt than anything. The results were good and Turkey was a known. Divis back. Afternoon selling might see high 60s. Going long here would be sensible.
And my guess it's down, not up because of the mention of divis.
Tour operator Thomas Cook Group Plc. (TCKGY.PK, TCG.L) reported Thursday that its first-half loss before tax narrowed to 288 million pounds from last year's loss of 303 million pounds. Underlying EBIT was a loss of 163 million pounds, compared to loss of 173 million pounds a year ago. Revenue declined slightly to 2.672 billion pounds from 2.742 billion pounds a year ago. The company said its programme to repurchase up to 100 million pounds of outstanding bonds would be launched shortly, ahead of plan, in line with strategy for the reduction of fixed-term debt. Looking ahead, for the year, the company expects underlying EBIT to be between 310 million pounds and 335 million pounds. Based on current trading and the expected benefits from New Operating Model, the company expects to recommence paying dividend from fiscal 2016 profits. Peter Fankhauser , Chief Executive of Thomas Cook, said, "Despite the current market environment, I am confident that the actions we are taking to focus on customer excellence, strengthen our holiday offering, invest in omni-channel distribution, and bring our businesses closer together mean we're well positioned to meet our existing growth expectations to FY18, creating value for both customers and shareholders."
Quick look... so we can base our outlook around technicals & reality instead of the far-fetched conspiracy theories posted... :) Daily Closed bang on minor support - will take nothing to bring down the house to low 80s and the 70s should it get really spicy. However, in lieu of some summer-suicide bombing action, stochs has now cooled off and ready to take a turn north - there's a gap 101.6-98 that needs to be filled. Minor resistance at 101.97 which has proven to be a huge barrier on the daily when the SP has tried to make a run for it. Weekly Lined up for intraday gains her above, but low 80s very much in the picture. It's trying to claw its way out of oversold on the Williams - sadly the Earnings Release is 19 May and I struggle to see what will lift it out of the lower end of the Bollinger band. Not even an upgrade and the Lufthansa news could shift it above danger territory. Monthly Trend is... down. Oversold on the Williams and Stochs have no momentum. Ignoring TA and fundamentals, unfortunately the macro environment is incredibly hostile. If looking at fundamentals and the earnings estimates, current SP gives us a forward P/E of under 8 signalling great value. However, this really doesn't matter when the world is one step from going to ****. When all of this is said, we need to look at how the business model has changed from all eggs in one basket to a de-risked and diversified transformed enterprise. Many new destinations in and outside Europe, new planes, debt going down, Fosun JV and new revenue growth, divis to be announced later this FY. This is still a good turnaround beast to hold and at current levels and forecasts it should be trading at 120p for FY16 and 150p for FY17, based on historic P/Es of ~10 which is below industry average.
Just spent 2 weeks out there. From interacting with the locals my takeaways are: 1. Consumerism: - people want buy nice things they enjoy, eat well and dress well - everywhere I went people asked about my clothes, what I do overseas, what I eat, how I work, what I earn, how I saved up for my trip, where I have traveled to, don't want cheap and nasty Made in China things 2. Travel: - insane interest and appetite for wanting to know what happens overseas, cost of this and that, what to see and do, what to experience, when and where 3. Living standards - people want education and a solid job to be able to afford 1 and 2 All proof as to why the investment thesis still exists for TCG - had it not been for Fosun I would dumped my last tranche at 160.
That... and james martin meals! Charts depend on it
But then you look at EPS and P/E and realise it's rather expensive, no?
Don't worry about me chaps, I am out. Only turnaround stock I am in now is Thomas Cook.
As for click and collect, why bother with that when most people can have Amazon, JL etc send the stuff to their desks at work so you don't have to leave your desk.
From what I can read any real synergies won't be felt until 2017/2018, and any cost savings until 2018. By then Google will have capitalised on the electronics market and invented a whole new distribution model!
You need some serious revenue growth to entertain being cheaper than Argos, JL and Amazon. Those stores aren't cheap to run why margins continue to be down. That huge high st presence needs to go. Look at Thomas Cook, only way to drive up margins is to get rid of physical stores and expensive human capital and embrace digital distribution.
hopefullywise, to your points, well summarised btw, EPS growth, or lack thereof, is the main fail in the investment thesis here. Revenue is fine but margins down and where is the intrinsic value? There isn't any. A company that sells commodity products.
Treading water here, margins down. Again.
You’re not wrong there. I did buy an underwater camera from Dixons at Gatwick back in March. I called them and they put it aside for me. But when turning up there was no sign of said camera and they had to look for it for ages. Inked up sales assistant was also pretty clueless. Only reason I bought the camera was because I could get it tax free and of course it had good reviews. Dixons is the kind of place you go to check out items then buy cheaper elsewhere. I also prefer JL and Waitrose to any other retailer and will go out of my way to shop there. Shame they aren’t listed or I’d be filling my boots.
I was on the tube the other day and saw an ad for what I think was a gadget, underneath it were logos of: John Lewis | Amazon | Tesco | Currys And a few more. Internet of Things is becoming real but the merger smells like a final solution kind of thing. Companies that create technology really well like Google will capitalise on it and I don't think a shop front like Dixons Carphone has much of a future as they aren't producing anything.
I think this is going to go the way HOME has behaved since their results: decent revenue and profit but all down to World Cup and sunny spells. Now down 15% since their results ~2 weeks ago. Money will shift to travel/leisure industry as there is now little excuse to sit at home to watch the WC.
Probably why HOME is slowly sinking. Any uplift in DXNS revenue can be attributed to the World Cup and my bet is down from here although indicators still not looking to bad. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/retailandconsumer/leisure/10918452/Great-British-getaway-begins-following-World-Cup-exit.html
On Darty's juicy results?
Don't do it. It's really starting to cool off. IMS on 23 June. All retailers I follow issued pretty much useless statements, with Home being the exception, but still down about 7% since yesterday.
And there we have it. See what the indicators are looking like a bit later today but that 47.5 came a lot sooner than I'd thought. ~44 will be interesting.