Member Info for psinker

For the small sample size of UK listed shares that I've held which have been downgraded by US banks there has been little negative impact on the share price and sometimes quite the opposite. The Goldman Sachs downgrade of Britvic in 2016 immediately caused the downward trend to reverse and marked the start of a decent bull run which has seen the bank (grudgingly, I presume) nudge up the target price occasionally. IHG was downgraded a while ago by JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley but the market hasn't taken any notice and the share price has continued its relentless march upwards.

I can one up you both by having had a decent sum "invested" in Carillion. Investing in UK stocks feels a bit like searching for unicorns in a minefield. Fortunately my pension is locked away in an ex-UK global equity tracker.

Looks like it's trying to clear a sizeable overhang. Feel pretty bad about my prediction that we wouldn't see sub-1900 after the last time. Apologies for that.

There has been news of UK pension funds selling all tobacco holdings recently:

https://www.moneymarketing.co.uk/nest-puts-tobacco-investments-into-the-ash-tray/

Seems like unfortunate timing given the recent forced selling here, but perhaps helps explain weakness in the tobacco sector in general.

There's a good bit of information regarding the dividend from the CFO himself in the presentation they gave on Tuesday, a transcript of which can be found here:

https://www.imperialbrandsplc.com/content/dam/imperial-brands/corporate/investors/presentations/conferences/2019/2019.06.11%20Deutsche%20transcript.pdf.downloadasset.pdf

Woodford might be selling out but I noticed that Aberdeen Standard Equity Income Trust have been buyers recently. This is taken from their half year report published today:We bought back into Imperial Brands where we believe the market is too fearful about the impact of new competition on earnings and dividends. Imperial appears to be gaining momentum in vaping, with potential for its Blu brand to become a leading player in a consolidating market. Recent management guidance has driven earnings upgrades, which should in due course drive the share price from the starting point of a very low valuation

Speculation on a tie up with Ocado today. As a consumer I like idea as I already shop with Ocado and having access to M&S food would be a plus. As a shareholder I'm not so sure as the online service might cannibalise some store sales and risk leaking customers to Ocado and Waitrose. Overall in favour as Ocado has a great service and would be a good match for M&S quality food (rather than Amazon or similar) but there are complications with Ocado's deal with Waitrose so it might not happen anyway.

I'd attribute it to Goldman Sachs downgrading to neutral while other brokerages are downgrading UK equities in general. Still looks like a decent investment given the numbers they reported and still time to get in for the FY dividend.

I think the price will be held back until (if and when) JPM and Goldman upgrade their recommendations and price targets which are both negative right now. I'm still here with a 400p average as part of a diverse income portfolio so while it's nice to see valuations in the blue it's not really important as long as the dividends keep rolling in.

You would have thought it was a done deal given the recent price increase. I'm long but would be tempted to put a bet on the downside if I was brave enough. Probably for the best I'm not.

Like a hedge I keep trimming it and it keeps growing back. Got to say the valuation is looking rather stretched at this price but then I've been thinking that since mid 2014 so what do I know.

Price is back to the 100p IPO level which is a shame as it had rallied nicely since last November. Would be nice to hear a reassuring statement regarding Brexit as there wasn't much mention of the topic in the annual results other than increased uncertainty. Not actually sure who would be the sellers at this level but it's another chance for anyone to buy in for a decent yield although it will be a long wait before the full year dividend rolls around again.

Nice bounce but can it really be sustained given crude inventories? Won't the downward trend just resume until some big players stop pumping? Haven't added here yet but bought some ECWO which has an enormous discount. Shame all this yield will become a curse when the new dividend tax laws take effect next year.

Couldn't work out why this was up so much until I checked Markets Live on FT Alphaville which mentioned UBS restarting coverage with a note on the pros and cons of separate bids by BATS and JT. Looks like UBS have a price target of 4020p from this site. I've been expecting the speculation to die off and the price to fall but maybe this really has been undervalued by the market for a long time.

Another positive trading statement with H2 underlying pre-tax profit expected to be £4.2m vs £2.6m last year. Preliminary results due 28 April 2016. Price has looked a bit weak lately with the market downturn but hopefully this should prop it up as it should be quite good value at this level if these numbers are anything to go by. Quite happy to be holding given the >5% yield.

You're probably right. NAV down to 47.69p yesterday so if crude does fall toward $20 then could easily see this below 40p. Yield would be over 15% that point. Would love to be able to call the bottom with any confidence.

Need to delete the trailing square bracket on those image links if you click them. Wish you could edit posts.

Not an expert I'm afraid but plotting the dips this year suggests a bounce around 44p [http://imgur.com/M0PsgPB]. Thing is the price here tracks the NAV of the constituents so I drew some trend lines on RDSB which looks like that could well be due a bounce at current levels [http://imgur.com/zEBlAZQ] which would suggest that BRCI is already encountering resistance at this level. I don't see any sign of a trend reversal though.

Looks like broker re-ratings will dampen any chance of a rally. Berenberg with a 32% reduction in target price (560 to 380) and Goldman retaining their sell rating will probably do the most damage. Not all doom and gloom though with a few modest price cuts and a bunch of reiterations. JPM's target price of 550 now looks like an optimistic near-term objective.

Turned up my radio this morning when I heard the R4 reporter say the results made "dire reading" but I didn't get the same impression after having seen the overall numbers. Not sure what to make about the CEO situation but also don't feel the urge to panic sell quite yet.