Member Info for PrivateInvestor1

Why would anyone take your advice on this when you got it so badly wrong before?

A long way to go to test all time highs. 170p is not even close. All time high is over 700p

KEFI may or may not be able to use the contingency money for running costs but I imagine they can use the interest they get on that contingency money for running costs. They must have a substantial amount in the bank generating interest.

Not if they've only filtered one person. Easy to tell who's posting then. Just saying

What does 'illierate' even mean? Did you mean illiterate? Oh the irony.

Valid point on their forecasts being ambitious but they were forecasts made at a given point in time with information they had at the time. That information obviously has changed with new entrants and different landscapes that have as you rightly pointed out meant it isn't going to be as easy as they thought. Should they have baked more contingencies into their forecasting, probably yes.

I agree that there should have been a bit more detail, but your assumptions do tend to have a negative bias towards the company (sometimes validly so) but with this I would be surprised if that assumption is correct. If they're telling the market that the investment is going to impact FY26 profitability my assumption is they are going to front load a big chunk of the investment into FY26 to get the benefit of that investment as soon as possible ie FY27.

As you say, time will tell.

You don't know that they are going to be spreading the £9m equally over the 3 years. They could be front loading it into FY26 and if that is the case I would expect that to impact profitability in FY26 but I would also expect FY27 to then show the benefit of that spend. We will have to wait until forecast for FY27 come out to get an idea of that.

They're not spending £9m to get 1% market share, they are spending it to gain 3.5% to get them to 7%. They may have forecast 6% previously but the landscape changes all the time. Like you have said repeatedly they are now competing with British Gas and possibly other new entrants to the B2B market. When they made the previous forecasts the circumstances would have been different to how things are now. Things don't stay the same and they have to adapt and that is what I see them doing now.

They look to be taking steps to address this hence the increased investments to help get them to the 7% market share. It's a bit disingenuous to say they are investing £9 million for 1% market share when their current market share is 3.5%.

I took it as the £9million would be spent in FY26, but that could be a wrong assumption. Like you say there was not much detail on when or how it would be spent.

Fair question on the UAE hub, I don't really get that either. Maybe it is a hotbed for future tech developments that he can't get in the UK. Who knows.

Isn't it a bit obvious how £9 million investment in overheads would 'kill short term profitability'. If they're investing an extra £9 million that is going to increase their costs therefore reducing profit. Adds up perfectly well.

As they are saying profit will be in line with FY25 then they're saying that the £9 million investment will lead to an extra £9 million in revenue or reduction in costs elsewhere in FY26. Then the expectation is bigger growth in FY27 which as far as I am aware there are no forecasts for yet.

You can't even spell old. You also don't need a . after a ?

Maybe 1.63% today but 12% in a month for a 'non-growth' stock is pretty good. I'll take that every month

If it can stay above £17 going into the early part of next week then it should push on. Not too worried about the RSI as shares can stay in overbought territory for long periods before cooling off. As you say time will tell.

Fifth time in the last year YU has hit £17. Is this fifth time lucky or is it going to bounce back down to £14.50??

He's well known for back tracking on most of what he says as well, so I'd be taking that with a pinch of salt.

Should 'have'. Don't they teach English at school these days :)

The company has other earnings that feed into its 'PE' not just this deal. Therefore the length of this deal does not matter as such. The earnings in each given year from all their earnings goes into calculating it. The comment of 'the deal is only for 7 years so how can it have a PE of 10' makes no sense whatsoever. A company could have a deal over 1 year that gives it a PE of 10.

The PE has nothing to do with how long the deal is for. I think you need to research what PE is.

Even if you are thousands of pounds in profit you still have to manage that risk of losing that profit. If the share goes to 0 then you lose the profits and the original capital. You can still 'roll the dice' as you say while managing the risk. It doesn't have to be 'I am keeping all my investment in KEFI until it either goes to the moon or it crashes to nothing'. You can sell for some profit and redistribute it to other risk assets. I was in Synairgen and Deepverge and took profits along the way and glad I did as both went to 0.

My appetite for risk is quite high but I will still manage the risk of being in a share like KEFI. You keep saying maths and logic says the best option is to roll the dice but what if you roll the dice and lose everything. What does the maths and logic say to then get that 'profit' back.

I agree everything has an opportunity cost, whether you are all in cash or all in shares. Being in cash carries the opportunity cost of missing out on a share price increasing but it does mean you won't 'lose' your money. Being in a share like KEFI carries the risk it could go to 0, people will debate how likely that is.

My point is purely that 'de-risking' as such is not a fallacy it is the management of risk which will be different to each individual. You can't say that it is an emotional response for all. It will be for some.

And the £1,000 scenario again will be different to each person. Am I willing to risk £1,000 on KEFI to make upwards of £3,000, yes I am that's why I am here. If I lose that £1,000 because it all goes wrong am I disappointed, of course but it won't put me out of the game as I have managed the risk. Whereas someone with £1,000 to use should not be putting it all in one share.

For me I put risk management above the possible profit to be made as if I get it wrong by going too big then it is harder to make it back. But each to their own.

*Going the right way