Member Info for Preston

I topped up on this one earlier in the week but looks like I should have waited. Shares have now fallen 16% in the space of a fortnight vs. Friday close on the 18th October. 9 Buys on the stock, yet nobody coming out to defend the name, which I can't understand - 105% upside to Investec's £36.50 PT! As others have said, the fundamentals here remain very compelling - great product, great brand, great RoW opportunity, great management team/track record, great balance sheet/financials etc.

Nonstore retailers (I.e. Online) estimated change in monthly sales +2.8% vs. Retail & food services total +0.7% and vs. Clothing & clothing accessories stores +0.8%.

No idea why people are pouring cold water on the US expansion. Far, far better for Fever Tree to do what they’ve done in the UK and take a ‘slow and steady wins the race’ approach, building with the right partners and so all the while protecting the premium nature of the brand. What I find very encouraging is that if you go to Walmart.com and simply type in ‘tonic water’ and set to ‘best sellers’, then Fever Tree products rank highly already. https://www.walmart.com/search/?cat_id=0&page=1&query=tonic+water&sort=best_seller&typeahead=tonic#searchProductResult

A nice 27% return for the institutional holders that bought at the 1,100p pricing earlier today. For those questioning the business model, £100m of backing today sends a very strong message, hence the near-21% move today, reversing the earlier losses. My personal view is that with the opportunity out there, Blue Prism should be investing as these are typically ‘winner takes all’ industries, so the cash burn is not a major concern at this stage, particularly with the growth continuing unabated. Undoubtedly volatile shares, however.

Sorry for all on here that have lost money through the failure but there seem to be some misguided accusations flying around – this company have committed criminal fraud, and have therefore presumably misled with intention both auditors, regulators and investors alike. Nobody knows how complex the fraud is, so don’t know whether GT or others could have/should have spotted this.

The other notion that institutional investors won’t care about this because it’s not their own money is utter nonsense – this will be a major hit to performance to many UK managers and it’s their reputation/name above the fund. Nobody likes to lose money. The amount of work that most managers and their analysts do is typically considerable, but again, it’s hard for someone to spot fraud from provided numbers that in theory comply to FCA regulations etc. If investors had to start from a position of first deciding whether reported numbers were fraudulent then liquidity would disappear pretty quickly. Thankfully, this is very much the rare exception and not the norm, despite CAKE being a painful trade for many I’m sure.

Given that the shares have lost 25% of their value in the last five days, I wonder if the company will put out a press release at some point looking to reassure investors.

Trading down another 6.4% this morning - 27% below the 50p placing....

The brokers have about 7% of shares out... I doubt they're moving the price either way. Far more likely to be institutional trading.

What is your 3000p target based on?

FT - 'Players spend time customising their models � such as tanks and various creatures � by painting them and swapping out their bases.' This really serves to underline how shockingly misunderstood this company is by the City and financial press. Swapping out their bases?!?!... bizarre. The number of catalysts for this company remains phenomenal in terms of new product (boxed games, Necromunda etc.), new markets (China and Asia more broadly), new platforms (royalties etc.). One analyst covering this despite it being the best-performing stock in the FTSE Index (?!?!), which makes no sense. Brilliant company and a brilliant stock.

Possibly but probably not and my instinct suggests the latter. I'm certainly not waiting around on the chance that it might come good - money to be made elsewhere. Passing on price increases to discount retailers like Lidl and Poundland....good luck there. I also hadn't appreciated the underlying commodity risk here.

HSE are doing their job. They wouldn't be pursuing this unless they felt there was a clear issue across the company/culture and the update now pointing to additional issues at the Skelmersdale plant is a concern. I also don't like Accrol's notion that 'In common with other manufacturing businesses, however, there are workplace accidents from time to time.' This isn't something you'd ever hear from higher-quality peers. The issue is that the HSE issues were never communicated to investors, neither in the IPO prospectus or prior to the profit warning. I'm annoyed with myself here for basically listening to Simon Thomson in the IC and not really doing my own DD. Selling out today.

I sold some of my position recently, purely given the share price action of late but think the thesis here remains very strong. It's easy to take a UK-centric view and see the recent competition as a concern but don't forget that the International growth continues unabated. Schweppes can redesign their bottles but the ingredients remain the same and this was always the key USP for Fever Tree, not the packaging. Also, remember that different people own Schweppes in different markets, so it can't make a united effort against FEVR globally.

This all looks very suspect to me. I've just been back and looked at the admission document from June 2016 and there is no mention whatsoever of this Health & Safety issue, that was clearly known about.

Decent finish to the week given where we fell to on the back of the Ladbrokes termination.

Great to see some momentum behind GKN today... at long last. As Guzbod says, this is a rock solid company with a terrific long-term order book, particularly its aerospace division. It's been a tough six weeks or so but I'm happy to hold through the troubles.

This is extremely positive news – the decent sale price is a particularly pleasant surprise also. Within the last month, the business has concluded its Australian acquisition, disposed of perhaps its biggest risk in Turkey and gained a market leading position in the Danish markets through a relatively low-cost acquisition. For me this is still a rock solid share and a great long-term play. I won’t pretend I wasn’t disappointed earlier this week in terms of making a quick buck from a takeover, but I still have every confidence in SBT and don’t see 60p+ as unrealistic by the end of the year.

Just read the same reports, looks like Ladbrokes will update on Tuesday and the GVC deal should be wrapped up also. Agree that it's now looking like this week, which makes sense given the 17/10/11 deadline they're working to. be interesting to see where this opens tomorrow but more importantly, where it goes on Tuesday after Ladbrokes report.

I actually topped up yesterday on the back of the results announcement - as I've said on here before, the underlying business is massively strong regardless, as highlighted by a strong set of results, which were almost lost as all anyone really wanted to see was an update on the takeover. Take the point that the sp has fallen badly over the past two weeks and isn't where I'd like it to be but either way now, if the takeover is announced soon I'll have almost doubled my money given my average, whilst if the deal doesn't go through, I'm still left with shares in a solid company that will likely reach 80p+ in the long-run anyway. This is only my opinion but I still have every confidence that the takeover will happen. Announcement next week maybe?!...... lol

This is supposed to be a forum for discussion and people are free to speculate – if people only posted as and when news and firm dates were announced then this would be a pretty static board. If you and Dessie don’t agree that this is a ‘done deal’ and aren’t invested then best of luck to you both.