Sapan Ghai, CCO at Sovereign Metals, discusses their superior graphite test results. Watch the video here.
The reduction yesterday was macro related to the US CPI. The expected bounce this morning has been scuppered by a broker downgrade by RBC to 150 (see LSE news above). I am choosing to ignore this downgrade, which valued CWR at 15x 2023 earnings, but DYOR.
We can both agree that if nothing is signed by the end of March, then the language used in the RNS would have been inappropriate. However, I feel it is premature to moan about the lack of a contract on 11 Jan, just 4 days into the first full working week of the year.
In the US I have a number of risk assets, all pulled back during the London market, but have since moved forward. So perhaps we might see if a similar move ahead for CWR tomorrow, given the step down today corresponded with US CPI and US open.
See RNS 30 Nov 2023
"The Company is engaged in a number of discussions with potential licence partners. An agreement with the most imminent of the new licensees is progressing well..."
The update implied that a number of license partners was imminent, but the most imminent would not be signed in December.
Your suggestion that a contract will not be signed "any time soon" doesn't fit with what the Board of Directors (BoD) has communicated via RNS.
The Bosch / Weichai JV is not in the hands of the Ceres BoD (see other RNS). But there are active negotiations for other new license partners, as above.
It would be better if you backed your statements.
Today the price drop coincided with the US CPI data (inflation) coming in slightly hot but not so hot as to be concerning, as confirmed by a regional Fed president this afternoon.
Hot CPI is a macro event that disproportionately affects risk assets. The drop could well be short lived after the market recalibrates future Fed rate cuts.
Any positive news, such as the "most imminent" licensee contract is signed, would likely result in a correction to the SP.
Suggesting the SP will not see 300 is without evidence and ridiculous IMO.
@Hardboy, good post. When the books are closed for this year the revenue will disappoint. But the word to focus on is "imminent" and "licensees" (plural). No one likes that rapid-dip feeling, but one has to accept last night's RNS will have the herd running at the revolving door on the basis of the projected revenue, with predictable results. I'm not that worried, but each investor must make their own decisions.
COP28 starts on 30 Nov 2023. The agenda for COP28 is trailed months in advance. The following is a short clip of Ursula Von der Leyen which might be useful:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fhvDuWeWd-0
As another user pointed out, there are 'Rest of World' opportunities while the China JV is expected to happen, albeit according to timescales outside the control of CWR.
VirtualPostman: "...as long as it stays grounded in facts and not wild speculation..." I agree, opinion based on facts will be welcome. And helping investors to learn.
SeagullsFan / 'Keith H': You do not speak for the company. In time you will have the option to join the new TG along with other investors.
A letter from a shareholder to the TM1 board has resulted in the issue of a new RNS this morning that corrected two earlier RNS (RNS 1 & RNS 2 of 5 Oct and 7 Nov respectively).
The board has taken the first step in response to the shareholder letter. However a general response to all points raised is anticipated.
It has come to my attention via screenshots, that the admins of a popular Technology Minerals telegram group (TG) have for some time frustrated open and honest dialogue about the company. To the extent that TG members recognised for genuine fact based contributions have been banned from the group where the facts of the matter do not suit the agenda of the TG admins 'Keith H' and 'Riz'.
In order to resolve the impasse a new Technology Minerals Telegram Group with fresh admins is required. More information about this significant and exciting new step in shareholder empowerment will be announced shortly.
Https://www.gov.uk/government/news/billions-of-investment-for-british-manufacturing-to-boost-economic-growth
We have also set out our plan to launch a Hydrogen industry taskforce, delivered in partnership with the Hydrogen Innovation Initiative and Innovate UK, supporting our ambition to maximise investment opportunities for UK manufacturing of hydrogen propulsion systems.
BGHanson, thank you for writing a post that is worthy of a response. I share your optimism and concerns.
IMO a key component is the actual value of Recyclus. If Recyclus is overvalued the share price will go down, if it's undervalued, the share price should go up.
I think another question is whether the business is sufficiently capitalised.
I found the BOD selling via CCC/CCL to be a concern too.
Guys... Not sure the Subject line "Terminal decline" is accurate or helpful to the discussion. FWIW... I sometimes sell and buy back proportions of my investments. It would work like this:
Investment A; 10,000 shares at say 400p, as a long term investment
I identify a near-term risk of a price drop, but you do not want to risk my overall position because I believe the price will rise medium/long term. Therefore I decide to 'short' a proportion of Investment A, say 20% of my holding, on the promise that I buy back at some later date, hopefully at a lower price. My short is separate from investment A, because of the promise to buy back the stock in future. Therefore it becomes Investment B:
Investment B, borrow 2k of stock from investment A, sell it, and then buy it back at some future point - hopefully for less money.
I can claim a gain from investment B if I bought back for less than I sold, but conversely if I buy back for more, then I accept a loss, but in those circumstances, my loss in investment A would have been reduced.
Saying "...but overall he hasn't made any money has he?" is not necessarily true because there is nothing to stop the profit from shorting on multiple occasions from exceeding a current loss at investment A.
Hi Prion, I am not be too swayed by broker ratings. Sachs has maintained a BUY rating; that's positive. While it is unclear why Sachs reduced their estimate, we know that Sachs cut their target from 1-month ago. It therefore stands to reason that Sachs could increase that target again over a similarly short timeframe. By when do Sachs expect a 320 share price? It's not clear. And would Berenberg reiterate if today - that's unclear.
IMO, in the current situation it might be worth averaging down at sub-200p, but keep diversified. I believe the investment case is there with CWR but DYOR.
Prion25,
510 (540) pence - 'buy' - 29 Sep 2023 at 09:15
320 (510) pence - 'buy' - TODAY at 09:24
It would be sensible to use the news story with the most recent date, being today at 09:24, which appears to reconcile with the earlier revised estimate of 510.
I'm not sure why you used a subject line "Dilution" as that appeared to be unrelated to the point you made.
On 4 Oct 2023 Phil Caldwell purchased £272k of company shares at an aggregate price of 290pps.
6-days earlier, Phil Caldwell stated during the H1 presentation:
"We are in active discussions with a growing number of potential licensees both on the SOFC side and interestingly more and more on the SOEC side. We are seeing very strong interest in this technology and we have strengthened our global commercial footprint now in terms of growing our business development team that we have pursuing these opportunities."
The H1 presentation available on the link below has been viewed just 156 times. Has everyone done their own research?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c1so2_mrxQc
I assume Mr Caldwell purchased at a a price he judged to be good value but it turned out to be a premium of 31% over today's share price. Could it be that wider Macro conditions also contributed to the recent drop?
In terms of the price downgrade from Sachs to 320, this might reflect their view that the Bosch / Weichai JV won't happen (or believe it when they see it), but reflects their BUY rating reflects the other opportunities that Mr Caldwell spelled out at the H1 presentation.
Feel free to share your views - and lets keep these subject lines realistic - replying to posts with unreasonably negative subject lines perpetuates myths.
Hi Firefly, I believe that Horgan is owed salary money and will be paid in shares. In such circumstances if would be of limited value to buy more shares when owed money that is to be paid in shares.
Anyone else here correct me if I'm wrong, as I recall reading that but cannot place a link to the evidence - it may have been a year end report.
Hi guys, see the article posted to TM1 Twitter this afternoon:
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/drive/article-dead-ev-batteries-turn-to-gold-with-us-incentives/
"The IRA includes a clause that automatically qualifies EV battery materials recycled in the U.S. as American-made for subsidies, regardless of their origin. That is important because it qualifies automakers using U.S.-recycled battery materials for EV production incentives."
The Atlantic Declaration between the US and UK stated:
"With congressional consultation, we intend to immediately begin negotiations on a targeted critical minerals agreement covering the five relevant critical minerals most important for electric vehicles – cobalt, graphite, lithium, manganese, and nickel – that are extracted or processed in the United Kingdom count toward sourcing requirements for clean vehicles eligible for the Section 30D clean vehicle tax credit of the Inflation Reduction Act."
If my reading is right an off-taker with access to IRA subsidies could use TM1.
Any thoughts?
Article:
https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/exxon-mobil-talks-with-tesla-ford-supply-lithium-bloomberg-law-2023-07-31/
The key takeaway is that it's only a matter of time until DLE extraction from Brine becomes a reality, and the likelihood is that there will be multiple technologies at play, of which tech by Next-ChemX if proven will be one.
It seems generally accepted that the science is sound and Next-ChemX appear to have the knowledge. The question of scaling up seems to be an engineering one, which is probably easier to solve than many other human accomplishments.
Looking forward to the Q3 update any time over the next 8-weeks.