Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
https://www.sharecast.com/news/news-and-announcements/blackrock-stops-russia-investments-after-criticism-on-polymetal--9312525.html
I think this article missed out a zero? Otherwise Blackrock paid 50p which is nonsense.
A day after Russian forces crossed the Ukraine border, BlackRock bought more shares in Polymetal, part-owned by Alexander Nesis, a Russian billionaire, for £12m, taking its stake to 10.1%
£12m should be £120m
Blackrock owned five percent before the invasion.
So Blackrock bought 5 more percent for 120 million quid?
120 million quid divided by twenty four million shares
My calculations tell me they paid around 500p a share?
Blackrock would have been given a heads up, prior to the invasion, they never sold, they never unloaded, and they actually topped up. Now they wanted five percent more, and would have been told in no uncertain terms that to buy that kind of volume, you ain’t getting that volume for less than five quid, so take it or leave it. They took 24 million shares at five quid knowing full well below this price there would be liquidity issues, which we are seeing full well now. Hence buying restrictions, lack of volume, and massive spreads.
Five quid is Kaz only, like a lower ceiling. If you are in below this you will get lucky if you are patient. Any institution wanting big volume now will have to bite the bullet and pay a much higher price, they ain’t getting a discount. The current SP reflects low volume, little interest from real money; that could turn on a six pence, this afternoon, next week, next month or next year.
I watched with interest on the way down, in and out of auction, PI thinking “I cannot get a quote”, because the big boys were moving stock around.
My bet is only around 4% of stock is changing hands over the past few months, maybe 19 million shares at most, could be even less. It’s one to watch this one, but you must be patient.
Big Blue sweety, you spend far too much time on here trying to convince no one that you know what will happen. No one will know what will happen, this company will not just dump eight active mines, all earning an income and paying down debt. companies within structures, within groups shuffle. Now keep up you are slowing us all down, and if you have that much knowledge of the war, why are you not over there in your tank, doing your bit instead of boring this board with your key board general stuff.
Black Rock 25/02/2022
Position of previous notification (if applicable) 5.07%
Resulting situation on the date on which threshold was crossed or reached 10.08%
Black Rock 08/03/2022
Position of previous notification (if applicable) 10.08%
Resulting situation on the date on which threshold was crossed or reached 9.91%
Black Rock own as of today; 46,950,805, Over 46 million shares, quite a trade that one hey?
A day after Russian forces crossed the Ukraine border, BlackRock bought more shares in Polymetal, part-owned by Alexander Nesis, a Russian billionaire, for £12m, taking its stake to 10.1%
Blackrock owned five percent before the invasion, yes?
So Blackrock bought 5.1 more percent for 12 million quid?
12 million quid divided by twenty four million shares
My calculations tell me they paid around 500p a share?
Sounds about right.
The Russian assets will stay in house, maybe moved to another part of the group or something?
But I doubt there will be any fire sale, PPF Group own 3.3%, Black Rock what 10%, ICT Group even more?
Us the little PI’s posting stuff on here, no influence at all, just too much time on your hands.
https://www.sharecast.com/news/news-and-announcements/blackrock-stops-russia-investments-after-criticism-on-polymetal--9312525.html
A day after Russian forces crossed the Ukraine border, BlackRock bought more shares in Polymetal, part-owned by Alexander Nesis, a Russian billionaire, for £12m, taking its stake to 10.1%.
“This trade would not be permitted by the policy BlackRock instituted on Monday, which we believe reflects BlackRock’s and our clients’ values,” it said in its statement.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ICT_Group_(Russia)
The ICT Group (Russian: ?????? ???), also spelt IST Group, is an investment venture based in Russia.[1]
The ICT ('Investments, Construction, Technologies') Group, founded by Alexander Nesis and his partners in the early 1990s, for years used to be one of the largest privately owned investment and industrial companies in Russia. It is headquartered in Moscow and in St. Petersburg. It invested in, developed and managed assets in wide range of industries, including the banking and financial industry, metals and mining, precious metal production, heavy engineering, logistics, construction and development.[2]
The portfolio of assets under the Group's management included NOMOS-BANK, Khanty-Mansi Bank, Polymetal and United Wagon Compamy. From 2010 till 2013 the Group also holded large equity stakes in the potash producer Uralkali and Baltic Leasing.[3] The group's assets are located primarily in Russia, but it also had interests in Kazakhstan.[2] In 2013 following the restructuring of assets a new private investment company ICT Holding Ltd (Cyprus) was founded.
Key shareholder of the ICT Holding Ltd is Alexander Nesis.[4][5][6]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PPF_(company)
PPF Group N.V. is a Czech financial and investment group incorporated in the Netherlands. PPF Group invests in multiple market segments such as financial services, telecommunications, biotechnology, real estate and mechanical engineering. The reach of PPF Group spans from Europe to North America and across Asia. It is active in the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Serbia, Hungary, Montenegro, Netherlands, Bulgaria, Croatia, Poland, Romania, Slovenia, Russia, Kazakhstan, Finland, Germany, India, Indonesia, Vietnam, Philippines, China, France, United Kingdom and the US. The founder and majority shareholder, Petr Kellner (98.93%), was also estimated to be the wealthiest person in Czech Republic until his death in March 2021,[5][6] according to Forbes magazine.[7] The other two shareholders, Ladislav Bartonícek [cs] and Jean-Pascal Duvieusart, each hold a 0.535% share.
As of 31 December 2019, PPF Group's assets are worth 48.6 billion euros.[8][9]
Until the Brokers lift trading sanctions, the bods are in charge here while the SP is encountering such thin volume.
The SP was sitting at 200p, then this.
03-Aug-22 09:11:10 222 Sell* BID 195.05 ASK 204.00 439.56 A
Automatic execution dropped the bid to 195p, hence it goes into the red.
Volume is going to be awfully thin until any news, or brokers around the globe allow buyins.
Three weeks time it will have been six months since Polys fall, six months of wasted life for what? Looking at the Witches visit to Taiwan, very co-ordinated, like this invasion, very co-ordinated. Spooky times, Chinas internal problems the focus is on the witch, US has problems, the focus is on the war, UK has problems but the invasion is no longer front page.
Until the hand brake is taken off Polymetal, and there is a hand brake, an intentional hand brake, this trading volume is very very unique to a large cap miner.
All quite spooky really, would love to see who is holding in here and how much. I think institutions have a bigger part in here than most realise.
Euroclear Accounts Blocked by Russian Depository
https://www.marketsmedia.com/euroclear-accounts-blocked-by-russian-depository/
The Central Bank of the Russian Federation (CBR) has introduced new measures. As a consequence, the National Settlement Depository (NSD) has confirmed that our accounts have been blocked until further notice.
Impact
NSD has confirmed that:
• all assets held in our account with NSD are frozen
• they are no longer able to process:
receipt or delivery transactions o corporate actions, including income and redemption events
What does this mean for you?
• Bridge and external settlement
– as announced previously, external and Bridge free and against payment settlement of transactions in Russian domestic securities (RU ISINs) will not be executed until further notice.
• Internal settlement
– we will no longer accept new internal free or against payment settlement instructions in Russian domestic securities (RU ISINs) as from the close of the real-time settlement process date today, 1 March 2022. We request clients to review their instructions already in the system to ensure that they are compliant with sanctions regulations.
https://www.defenseworld.net/2022/07/30/polymetal-international-lonpoly-share-price-passes-below-200-day-moving-average-of-432-25.html
Wall Street Analyst Weigh In
Separately, Berenberg Bank reiterated a “hold” rating and issued a GBX 300 ($3.61) price objective on shares of Polymetal International in a report on Friday, July 22nd. Two equities research analysts have rated the stock with a hold rating and three have given a buy rating to the stock. According to data from MarketBeat, the company has an average rating of “Moderate Buy” and a consensus target price of GBX 1,161.67 ($14.00).
olymetal International Stock Up 0.8 %
The stock has a 50 day moving average of GBX 208.39 and a 200-day moving average of GBX 432.25. The firm has a market capitalization of £923.57 million and a P/E ratio of 1.27. The company has a debt-to-equity ratio of 95.33, a quick ratio of 0.67 and a current ratio of 1.68.
It's not possible to arbitrage across to the Moscow (MEX) listing because Euroclear no longer speaks to NDS, so settlement of trades cannot be done. We've thus got fractionated markets in the Polymetal shares. That just does lead to more volatility.
Sadly this is really just how we need to expect POLY to trade. Given the uncertainty of events in Russia and the varied attempts to solve them there's going to be volatility in the Polymetal share price. Given that the markets are going to be thin – the Russian holders can't trade London and most American brokers won't let US citizens trade it either – then again we'd expect trade flows to bounce the price around. That, in turn will mean that the spread is wide. That's just how these things work out.
https://www.asktraders.com/analysis/polymetal-shares-up-7-down-4-all-by-08-15-volatility-eh/
NAV - KAZ. Anyone any idea of the liabilities applied to Kaz? I have no idea, Cyprus and Kaz debt combined is what? Is this all KAZ debt, or some Russian.
Net profits on KAZ are about £246 Million. At multiple of about 9, gives a valuation of £2.2 Billion or about £4.60 per share.
Great post Pips, very well written and could not agree more. Worthy of a news paper column.
I would be intrigued to know if any paper was ever submitted to Boris Johnson’s cabinet forecasting the likely outcome for Britain of Russian sanctions. The assumption seems to be that if trade embargos hurt they are working. As they do not directly kill people, they are somehow an acceptable form of aggression. They are based on a neo-imperial assumption that western countries are entitled to order the world as they wish. They are enforced, if not through gunboats, then through capitalist muscle in a globalised economy. Since they are mostly imposed on small, weak states soon out of the headlines, their purpose has largely been of “feelgood” symbolism.
A rare student of this subject is the American economic historian Nicholas Mulder, who points out that more than 30 sanctions “wars” in the past 50 years have had minimal if not counterproductive impact. They are meant to “intimidate peoples into restraining their princes”. If anything they have had the opposite effect. From Cuba to Korea, Myanmar to Iran, Venezuela to Russia, autocratic regimes have been entrenched, elites strengthened and freedoms crushed. Sanctions seem to instil stability and self-reliance on even their weakest victim. Almost all the world’s oldest dictatorships have benefited from western sanctions. Moscow is neither small nor weak. Another observer, the Royal United Services Institute’s Russia expert Richard Connolly, has charted Putin’s response to the sanctions imposed on him since his 2014 seizure of Crimea and Donbas. Their objective was to change Russia’s course in those regions and deter further aggression. Their failure could hardly be more glaring. Apologists excuse this as due to the embargos being too weak. The present ones, perhaps the toughest ever imposed on a major world power, may not be working yet, but will apparently work in time. They are said to be starving Russia of microchips and drone spares. They will soon have Putin begging for peace. If Putin begs, it will be on the battlefield. At home, Connolly illustrates how Russia is “slowly adjusting to its new circumstances”. Sanctions have promoted trade with China, Iran and India. They have benefited “insiders connected to Putin and the ruling entourage, making huge profits from import substitution”. McDonald’s locations across the country have been replaced by a Russian-owned chain called Vkusno & tochka (“Tasty and that’s it”). Of course the economy is weaker, but Putin is, if anything, stronger while sanctions are cohering a new economic realm across Asia, embracing an ever enhanced role for China. Was this forecast? Meanwhile, the west and its peoples have been plunged into recession. Leadership has been shaken and insecurity spread in Britain, France, Italy and the US. Gas-starved Germany and Hungary are close to dancing to Putin’s tune. Living costs are escalating everywhere. Yet still no one dares question sanctions. It is sacrilege to admit their failure or conceive retreat.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jul/29/putin-ruble-west-sanctions-russia-europe
Energy prices are rocketing, inflation is soaring and millions are being starved of grain. Surely Johnson knew this would happen? Western sanctions against Russia are the most ill-conceived and counterproductive policy in recent international history. Military aid to Ukraine is justified, but the economic war is ineffective against the regime in Moscow, and devastating for its unintended targets. World energy prices are rocketing, inflation is soaring, supply chains are chaotic and millions are being starved of gas, grain and fertiliser. Yet Vladimir Putin’s barbarity only escalates – as does his hold over his own people.
To criticise western sanctions is close to anathema. Defence analysts are dumb on the subject. Strategy thinktanks are silent. Britain’s putative leaders, Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak, compete in belligerent rhetoric, promising ever tougher sanctions without a word of purpose. Yet, hint at scepticism on the subject and you will be excoriated as “pro-Putin” and anti-Ukraine. Sanctions are the war cry of the west’s crusade. The reality of sanctions on Russia is that they invite retaliation. Putin is free to freeze Europe this winter. He has slashed supply from major pipelines such as Nord Stream 1 by up to 80%. World oil prices have surged and eastern Europe’s flow of wheat and other foodstuffs to Africa and Asia has been all but suspended.
Britain’s domestic gas bills face tripling inside a year. The chief beneficiary is none other than Russia, whose energy exports to Asia have soared, driving its balance of payments into unprecedented surplus. The rouble is one of the world’s strongest currencies this year, having strengthened since January by nearly 50%. Moscow’s overseas assets have been frozen and its oligarchs have relocated their yachts, but there is no sign that Putin cares. He has no electorate to worry him. The interdependence of the world’s economies, so long seen as an instrument of peace, has been made a weapon of war. Politicians around the Nato table have been wisely cautious about escalating military aid to Ukraine. They understand military deterrence. Yet they appear total ingenues on economics. Here they all parrot Dr Strangelove. They want to bomb Russia’s economy “back to the stone age”.
Net profits on KAZ are about £246 Million. At multiple of about 9, gives a valuation of £2.2 Billion or about £4.60 per share.
I expect an RNS this month outlining a proposal, a possibility. Either this or an end to whatever either two sides are trying to achieve, which is now becoming back page news, and both leaders need to take their heads out of their @rses.
Pipsjunky, that's a waterfall sweety.
https://www.polymetalinternational.com/en/investors-and-media/shareholder-centre/stock-chart/#lse
Offered 197p to buy, 57 days until H1 report, unless the BoD have something positive to report between now and then, this to the benefit of PI shorting is only heading lower now.
Nesis are you reading this; you have to attract institutional buying otherwise your personal wealth will be worth very little. Your MOEX shares will be falling until you and your colleagues act in such away that institutions can buy in here without the distraction of toxic Russian based assets. Until this is the common theme.
We can call it a day in here. Does not matter what the fundamentals and financials are you need buyers, big orders laddered upwards to push up the bid. To stay up you need institutions who are not taking profit every spike up like we are seeing.
The see saw is the little men taking profit then shorting it back down awaiting the next bit of news. Its being kicked around like an old football by PI traders looking for short term profits.
Ask 201p, PI shorts are all over this again, PI's had enough and selling out.
Cum'on Nesis, the company is fundamentally doing fine now, two years of uninterrupted extraction.
what's the plan to support the shareholders?
RUB is way over valued against GBP, 140 RUB is more realistic, hence 270/140 = 193 RUB.
Nesis needs to get his skates on with an RNS update. Anyone have a link to the debt structure of the full subsidiaries.
Two Kaz assets/Cyprus demonetised debt and Nine Russian assets, Russian denominated debt.
Could give us an idea of what sort of offer we get in a management buyout situation. By that I mean how much debt we are left with owning just the Kaz assets. That will determine where we will end up as I see this the only option now, this conflict is not ending nicely so we are stuck with no Russian assets.
Keeping an eye on the ask now.
It's not dropped below 200p yet, so what you pay is still holding 200p. If this breaks.
The short PI's will take this down to ~160p support up until 22nd September, unless we see some changes to the political landscape.
Dropped like a stone on the MOEX, 270 RUB now, I bet Nesis is thinking about is investments now.
Average Volume (10 day) 2.316M on the MOEX
52 Week Low 211.1000 RUB,
it hit 231 RUB
https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/MOEX-POLY/