The next focusIR Investor Webinar takes places on 14th May with guest speakers from Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund. Please register here.
Parsnip, no i wasn't/didn't say a rally was near. Looks as if there's one more down move (to possibly 33 .00p or 32.00p ) .
Sit and wait methinks.
46p ?.Yes posters can say 46p,but just where did they get this figure from ?. Too much sky blue thinking. Nothing technical.
I said a correction was coming. Do people think that shares go up in a straight line without any pauses ?.Unbelievable.
Jeremy, with the greatest respect to you, you mentioned the bullish flag last week. Being always wanting to learn from others, could you give me your take on what went wrong. Did the Flag get negated, and if so how ? .I'm pre-supposing that you were suggesting it was a bullish sign and the market would go to further highs. Maybe you were looking at the bigger picture of the rise from 27.77 ?. I don't all things TA, only certain things ( Head and Shoulders can work, but then don't ,so i don't give it a lot of credence).
So if you can give me your current take on things, i as always won't critisise you in any way. I just need to understand things more. As you say oversold, where to next ?.
It's all about playing the percentages Hexam . The percentage play was that near 40p it would top out and start correcting the rise from 27.77p.Next is to work out how far the pullback is going to be , then make decisions based on it, and then play the percentage play. Nothing is ever guaranteed, but that is how all decisions are made in life and every where else for that matter.
Voltaire, reasons are given (especially in the media) AFTER a price move up or down, never BEFORE.
if Boo had suddenly shot up and not down, the media folk et al, would be looking for different reason to explain it all away.
I'd put price action above all other things first, then look at everything else.
I am very surprised at some of the posts on here at the moment. Posters are saying that they can't explain away the sudden fall of late. Well it's purely technical. Day/short-term traders have sold as the price has reached there target.
Chart-wise as i have said in my posts, have signaled the top (circa).All moves have been accounted for and the obvious actions algo-wise etc have taken over.
I have some figures of 33p as a support, which looks a bit low, but at this point we will have to read the moves down as they happen. That way we can only then project a likely next bottom to top up on.
Once again i say that i'm very surprised that some posters appear not to know what is going on with the S.P. Please do not take this as an insult, for as i say, i'm surprised, therefore i had a high opinion of you all, especially of those posters doing the Fundamentals. It's just that i see the charts as a back-up, even for those who base there decisions on fundamentals.
The chart in my opinion remains Bullish, and i interpret the fall as a normal technical correction in it's onward path upwards. So many investors are so impatient as to think that this share is going to go to £1 in a blink of an eye (didn't one poster say early in December that "£1 before Christmas").He was obviously looking at when in rebounded from 152 to 415 in the pandemic days. Perhaps he should look up what a "B " wave is!!!,perhaps he should do some research.
There is no substitute for hard work and doing your own research. As i said to one guy who observed that i was "always reading". I told him that if you want to learn to swim, you have to at some point immerse yourself in water. Like-wise if you want to be good at anything, you have to immerse yourself in it, i.e. study very hard to the point of obsession.
GLA ,and all you bulls out there keep the faith.
As i posted some days ago ,followed by a false start, now well into a correction. Waves are easily readable, which for this share is a welcome change.
And by this statement of yours, you really mean ?.
Looking at the Chart, i interpret it as, we have seen the top for now, and are now correcting the rise from 27.77.There may be new highs JUST above the last top, but basically, a correction is coming.
How far the pullback goes, so that buyers can get in and shorters can have another go at closing is open to debate. That's to be worked out later. Maybe it will go down and then bounce on the update in a few weeks time. Sounds a logical scenario ?.GLA.
Jeremy, hi. Would have thought that we had hit the top (for the moment) by now. How much more traction is still in it, before it takes a break and pauses for a pullback ?.
I must be reading the waves wrong. Still, it's notoriously hard to read it right so early in a pattern. Best to sit back and observe and let it become clearer possibly.
My post of 13th of September, in my reply to Oakhurst i asked him about his opinion about Walgreen, of course no reply from him. Perhaps i'd better luck on a forum ?.
Superdry has a way to go still, reckon i have read it ok, though the level it will reach is alarming, unless it can do a sideways move, like Boo did at 30p ( pity it dipped below 30p ),so holders of Superdry need to top up if they are Bullish when it reaches it's bottom.
Last of the corrective moves keeps getting scuppered. Shorters well and truely in trouble. To think that this share used to hardly manage a rally when it was supposed to. Now it can hardly get a corrective down move going. When it does happen, let's hope we can find the top up price.
Think i mentioned to someone about Walgreens in the past, looks as if i may have missed the bottom.
Hi Ableton. i only do all this as a hobby, i made money in the property boom as i lived in London. Though i bought at the bottom in early '75 , i then lost money (odd that!!!!. Perhaps i wasn't in the club!!!!??!!.After that i left it alone.
I only do long term holding. But with Boo i look at the smaller moves so that i practice reading it all correctly. I learn from my mistakes from how i initially predicted things. Basically i reckon, If you can predict the Boo movements correctly, every other chart in the Universe should be easy!!!!!.
I have found since i took up share study again some 6 years ago, no particular week or month has favoured one way or another, but i really haven't looked. But to remind everyone of the old sayings in the Market years ago, for instance "Sell in May and go away, come on back St. Leger day". That one was the most popular.
From the Investors Chronicle in 1973,it stated that if the Main index finished Higher at the end of January than compared to January the first, then the index would finish on the plus side at the end of the Year. It worked from 1946 to 1972,but in '73 with the market collapse it failed to work. I haven't checked it since.The Coppock indicator was one that they favoured, but after it seemed to give buys but then would give a sell not long after, then a buy again.I may not be doing it justice as it was a long time ago now.Best to check it yourself methinks.
There are such theories of how long a price movement lasts, such as Fibonnaci moves etc,and i have noticed a few things time wise, but i have yet to follow it all up, as at 74,although retired, energy wise it's getting more difficult to keep on ploughing on.
I see that the dreaded "C " wave seems to be upon us. I haven't yet done a calculation as to how far the pullback is going to be (Assuming that the last wave 5 has actually finished }.I reckon as i said in my earlier post, that investors will be waiting to top up at the next support level. I will resume my work on it all after the New Year, and post again then.
I do Elliott, Broadly speaking ,i am not an expert. But it's easy to spot top formations where there is sideways movements consisting of the ABC correction. When you have worked out the first two waves AB, then you sit back and wait for the C move .Of course there are attempts to short a share down from the top, which are scuppered, making the share go sideways for longer, so best not to try and short too early, or not at all.
With your own research of algos/ equations mixed with Elliott you can come up with possible long term supports/bottoms. If early on in a down move it drops say 25%,and has gone straight through a support and the waves don't even add up, you know that the next support comes into play. Say for instance 400p was an early support numerically, but not wave wise, you can sit and relax when your next support is calculated at say 200p.you no need to look at it all the time as you have loads of time.
When all your calcs line up in row, then is is the time to consider whether to invest. Your own research mixed in with known TA should make your investing a lot safer, giving you the ability to see through all the "noise" and "chatter".
Ableton, i am using the i min chart to see if all the waves,(5 waves ) have finished, so i know where i am..(hopefully!!).
I think 41p could well be the top for the moment. Hard to read the chart esp the 1 minute chart. It has to do a pullback to counter the rise from 27.77p.
Lot's of investors will be waiting, fingers poised on the button to top up again. Only thing to do now is to work out where the next support is.
Maybe it'll have a rest here. But they''ll be buyers waiting in the wings to pounce. Shorters will be hopping about as well.
We just need to watch it all unfold for a while
Still remarkably strong. It's still hard to count all the moves on the chart, to get them all right, as to how far into the Bull move we actually are. In basic terms the Bulls will just have sit back and enjoy the rise, until it decides to take a break for a while.
Posters who complained about shorters should realize, that as in the past the share went down with only short closing to cause a rally, and because of the absence of buyers and shorters going in again, this caused the other falls to continue.
Now we see that with Shorters closing AND real buyers now buying this has had the effect which we see now. Buyers piling in and shorters panic closing, thus giving a momentum upwards that feeds upon itself.
So you see that Shorting has purpose, so that it gives all those that were savvy enough to buy between say 30 to 35p, real hope of making loads. That's supply and demand working.
Nothing but a solid up move. To think that this share used to find it difficult to hold on to a rise of any kind without curling over and falling. As i said before, anybody who bought between 27.77p and 40p should hang on in there.
Though of course there will be some profit takers from traders from time to time, which will hold things up for a while, i wouldn't sell any at all.
Thank you for all your replies, (Jeremy refuses to reply, and they call this a forum!!),I respect all your comments and take them on board. The problem with fundamentals and charts even, are that with a fundamental study it can go wrong when bad results are announced and the price goes up, and good results appear and the price goes down.
I have mentioned before the old adage that "the news follows the stock market, the stock market doesn't follow the News". What happens is, if the price goes up after a bad set of results the Papers report that "the results were not as bad as expected". If the shares go down after a seemingly good set of results, they report that "the results were not as good as expected.
As for posters saying surely the bottom must be near, i cite 1973 when the market lost 73%. On circa January the 5th 1975 Burmah Castrol went bust, and the Market fell. Straight after, the market started it's near 50 year Bull run, even at a time when Nat West Bank shares fell below par value. If you had said at any time in the last 50 years before 1975 that this would happen to Nat West, you would have been laughed out of the Building.
Although i respect Fundamental analysis, i tend to look at the Charts and see if they are holding their pattern, whether it be Bullish or Bearish. At the moment i'd say percentage wise that there is a case for seeing a Bull pattern, though with this share there has been many a false Dawn where the Bull pattern collapsed in upon itself. After a while you can see when it starts to go wrong and act accordingly. Of course like Fundamental analysis a chart cannot factor in a sudden event like a takeover or a sudden realization that somebody is cooking the books that negates a chart pattern.
Both things come under the "unknown" banner. Although sometimes if a chart makes as sudden move prior to an announcement a chart can tell you sometimes that "something" is going on, but as yet unknown.
A lot of sudden wild gyrations on the 1 minute chart this morning, as the Bulls and the Bears were having a right punch up .
Personally i'd sit back and observe for the next few days and let it play itself out, so that a bit more clarity becomes apparent.