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now back to your post - which i post below and have added responses:
Pijoe you asked four questions and it seems no one has answered them. I was going to politely ask you to answer them yourself but I'm not sure that would be wholly constructive.
Q1. Basically you asked what service provider would drill with Shorecan when they do not have the right to drill?
You:
Difference here between not having a right and not having a right, we await a signposted sign-off with DPR consent already in the bag and NNPC asking us to expand our plans. However I suspect what you are really saying here is that Arthur Millholland was in fact misleading investors when he stated the company are in such advanced talks with a service provider that an agreement could happen within four weeks. The only other cogent explanation, If that is not the case and Arthur has provided a truthful account , is that the Service Provider in getting to late stage is not aware of the position regarding permission to drill from its own due diligence. Nor for that matter is the Bank of Mauritius or Trafigura aware of the situation in agreeing a $30m-$50m facility two weeks ago.
Me:
I think the prospectus statement about having to sell the essar Nigeria shareholding make it clear the risk to the service provider to enter such a contract will simply not happen until the change of control is sorted. I have not said AH is misleading investors – however investors may have missled themselves. “could” happen ..”should happen” are different to “will happen”. Now I have not listened to his interviews (and what weight should any investor give to non-RNS’ed info?)..what did he say (as fact?). the post first oil funding is easy..afterall it is an off take agreement – the funder has the oil at the time of funds being advanced..it is nothing more or less than invoice factoring!
Q2. a) What slice of the project return would the service provider require and what's left for COPL?
You:
I am sure that you have looked at previous examples of service provision, have listened to what the CEO had to say in terms of deferred debt and the size of the stake to be taken by the service provider.
ME:
Well one could look at OPHR with fortuna..gave 66% to schum and golar (in effect a similar “services” contract deal)..and it still fell out of bed and would now appear to be dead in the water..given copl only have 80% to play with, then what is left for copl? not a fat lot left I would suggest for copl ..if 66% did not work what will?
b) Why even deal with Copl/Shorecan?
You:
Probably the same reason the Bak of Mauritius and Trafigura are doing so.
Me:
As stated above the post first oil funding is nothing more than “instant funding” for oil shipped and ownership transferred. What risk do the counter parties have? (none I would suggest). Now given the SPA would appear to be in default…why would a “service” contract not be with essar Nigeria with essar oil having taken back the 80%?
just before i switched off the lights last night i posted this to YOU at 00:49
"3 options:
Rns with mega funding on an asset you don’t have legal title to that can also fund Copl..
Rns with mega placing
Rns appointing administrators
It all about the current funding to keep the lights on, then sorting the mess."
bet you wish you had read it and understood...fool
still not had time to read noeasy post properly..but meeting delayed 15mins...
more i think about this more i think clarity on the performance bond and work programme status needs detailing in the prospectus...as it is main market..i have contacts to raise the questions if it is not 100% clear..this could run awhile longer yet..
jay..it caught my eye in a slack week...i try to do my research on any co very carefully..this is not one for me (funny that), but it does make me sharper on other co research...anyway will largely leave you all to it now...unless of course i start reading ramptastic rollocks (not from you ..but others!)
page 44:
Under the terms of the PSC governing OPL 226, Essar Nigeria is required to seek Ministerial consent for the change in control of Essar Nigeria.
page 51: there is a performance bond in place...for $25M...which remains with essar (page 54)...no wonder it looks tricky if the $25M has not been spent! the gov can grab the underspend via the bond (with conditions of evidence one would assume)!
wish i had looked at this before..
page 19:
Failure to obtain Nigerian ministerial consent for the OPL 226 Transaction could result in Shorecan being required to dispose of its shares in Essar Nigeria although the Directors believe they might also have a range of other options to satisfy any ministerial concerns about OPL 226 such as bringing in another farm-in partner.
got around to reading some of it....page 8:
The Company’s other short term financial commitments for the 12 month period following the date of this Prospectus also include 50% of the costs relating to ShoreCan’s commitment to invest up to a maximum of USD 80 million in Essar Nigeria in the form of an interest-free shareholder loan to be used for Essar Nigeria operations and in particular, to cover the work programme obligations, including drilling one well under Phase-1 of the PSC. The Company’s share of ShoreCan’s commitment equates to approximately USD 40 million.
The Company primarily intends to raise the required additional capital through equity fundraisings. The Company will seek to ensure that any such future equity fundraising is completed prior to the end of July 2017.
will be very interested to read the new prospectus.......
Given insiders picked it all up
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um no...they are taking a yet to be disclosed slice... the rns states..
Management and certain insiders of the Company plan to subscribe for new common shares in the Company at the Placing Price (the "Subscription"). An announcement pertaining to the Subscription will be released by the Company in due course.
before market open today you posted:
"This 'joe' character - what a waste of space.
Wonder whose payroll he is on?
Shows up out of nowhere, another attention seeker clown.?
Far too much time air time given to this freak.....
I have put him on ignore now."
i am sure you will not see this as you have me filtered...but you sure you got that one correct? this freaky clown (as you put it) called this one correctly....perhaps be polite next time and just maybe listen to rational comment?
you make very good points both yesterday and today. the terms "ramper" and "deramper" are used far too much on these BB's. each investor needs to always consider both sides of investment case. i would also highlight it is very uncommon to be able to short such low mcap stocks..so claims one often read of "deramping as you are short " is rollocks.
i posted this 22:35 yesterday. i think it sums up the key risks and issues. i think they are all things you understand but perhaps other here do not..todays placing has answered one of the questions leaving the rest to be resolved.
The issues are:
1. Copl has very little free cash. it has cash and also liabilities - it can not instruct services and then not pay. It’s on fumes! The facts ( numbers) are there to read in the accounts.
2. Shorecan has no cash ( based on the public domain evidence)
3. Shorecan have no ministerial agreed right to OPL226. So Copl has 50% of sfa of opp226.
4. Copl has a % of Liberia and mad assests..great super but worth what? Can not borrow cash against them I would suggest.
5. Shorecan is in dispute in the Nigerian courts via its control of Essar Nigeria - shorecan would appear to be paying the costs of the action including essays prior partners/ gov !
6. Shorecan is in dispute with its partner in Essar Nigeria. It would appear breach of SPA is the cause. The party to the spa is a very large co!!
7. Shorecan have a funding term sheet for an off take ( post first oil) funding agreement. This is not funding to drill appraisal wells or production facilities or for well services or working capital.
8. Copl have said shorecan are close to ( is that the same as I am close to the Queen by default of being British?) a $100 m services contract.
Now some questions:
1. what services contractor of standing ( shall we say GE or Sclum) would enter a contract to drill wells with shorecan when shorecan do not have the right to drill?
2. What slice of the project return would the service provider require? What’s left for Copl? Why even deal with Copl/ shorecan?
3. Copl s cash burn has been stupidly high for ages...why?
4. Just how much cash do Copl need to raise to keep Copl costs paid and fund shorecan and pay the lawyers for the old Essar farmout legal battle?
i wish you good luck.
wellwell. i also use past experience examples to support/ evidence opinion offered where it is relevant. you also do (as your hur example below illustrates). you and i both often react to unsupported opinion. enough from me.
wellwell...assuming you are still in hur (which i am sure you are), then you are invested in a penny share..its less than £1. i am sure banter on any BB does not and will not impact your investment actions.
3????..you could buy loads..
https://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/MONOPOLY-HOUSES-HOTEL-Pieces-Various-Editions-Spares-Replacements-/252905642760?var=
genghis..i have been in there for almost two years..was my top share pick for last year..payment risk is there but matters have improved over last 12 months...important to really do your homework on as there are key matters in the production sharing agreement with the gov...