Member Info for Piemaker

Interesting to see how far this will unwind.

Was it a delay in payments from federal close down, in which case Q4 is going to be far higher than expected.

So another raise, followed by another one, with a return to target price of 1.25 inside 3 years (based on warrants). So a 2/5 dilution in the next 6 months. In effect the baseline price is 0.75.

Once they have raised another 2m to cover the final 2 tranches.

December 2024), Limeco posted a loss before tax of ZMW 222,443,499 (US$8,496,696†) on turnover of ZMW 26,296,833 (US$1,004,463†). As at 31 December 2024, Limeco had net liabilities of ZMW 2,867,291,084 (US$102,844,013‡). Liabilities include ZMW 2,914,751,858 (US$104,546,336‡) due to shareholders ("Shareholders Loan"). Following the exercise of the second tranche of the Option, Firering has increased its right to 30.7% (cUS$28.1m‡) of the Shareholders Loan.

From last tranche RNS

Thought it paid for shares against the loan?

Brilliant, but where is the money coming from?

We know there is enough in the bank to cover the next tranche, but then what?

Aggregates is earning, but what?

Kiln 1 runs cica 50t a day, generating 10k a day/ no idea of current production cost per t.

Kiln 2 cold fired, ready for connection and testing.

Parts for 3 and 4 somewhere in transit, and 800k in the bank after this months purchase.

We know they are going to spend a chunk on rehydration equipment and quarrying.

With 2 tranches left to pay for, where is the couple of million required coming from?

It’s not the lithium interest, Limeco, not likely, bank loan?

When you can’t deliver on time, need to make sure shareholders have deep pockets.

Happy to work with that, holding 2.2m, what % would we need?

When Mr Cohen states in February 25, that the first kiln is fired up, with the rest online by the end of 25.

And here we are, 1 Kiln that could run at 40t a day, taken offline and optimised, now doing 45t a day. The rest of the kilns?.

Well we know in September they were waiting for parts from India, for kiln 2, the rest? And this set up is new and fandangelled, and will increase production. So February was a sales pitch to get money in. The reality is one kiln works grossing $9-10k gross, the time and money spent on modernisation has never been clear, but now looks happless.

How are they going to fund the final 2 tranches? We know the next one is taken care of, but then? Because they sure aren’t making any money.

The bank loan, $4m. How much revenue does it make to make at what margin makes this affordable? The $80k a year logistics profit, the net on the 34.5% share of revenue $3k a day gross.

Or are they going to have to come back cap in hand for more?

It’s going to take a lot more than 1 kiln and a good sales pitch.

Perhaps it’s time for a change in leadership.

Probably, Kiln 2 was due to be fired up mid October and Calibrated into November, nothing, earnings nothing, the silence is deafening.

End of this month, cat will be out of the bag.

Interim financial report incoming

Don’t need anything but patience 🐎

2.6-3.2 ( last asset valuation 7.7 pre equity purchase and no sales) due an update 28th, and financial reports in September, then we will see?

My expectation is a rerate based on financial run rate and second kiln to 10-12 3-3.8p, just a guess.

Some very good news to come, big buy in the background.

My guess is they have the first data on the kiln 1 configuration, and kiln 2 has progressed significantly, pre enablement has been completed form kiln 3/4.

At some point these go beyond cheap (thank you SpreadX) into hyper drive, resetting at 3.2.

Hype the cry, no!!!!

Maths - 50t per day quicklime - $208/t - 10k per day, sold at capacity + X% - planned downtime it’s dripping cash flow, so far above expectations it’s nearly criminal. Operational costs (Ex Director weighting, 22 direct, 18 non direct 1.8m/Yr). Aggregates , concrete, transport then add in the kiln multiples, lithium. No wonder everyone wants to engineer a piece of this.

True value 3 years 8 kilns 800t/day @ $205 in today’s money + concrete and aggregate, before rare metals?

60-80m looks straight forward, it’s more a question of how big they go before monetisation?

Net asset value is over 7m, orders are above production - on the flip side, not hit production figure to release bank loan, kiln 1 is 30% under dpt.

They will get there now with 6-9 months of slippage.

Bridging loan, Limeco Purchase option. Loans needs approval and funding, although I believe the bridging loan can be renegotiated subject to the 150k interest charge, if, buts and maybes will be gone a day after repayment day, 1/8/25

Easy enough to buy, topped up to keep at 1% or thereabouts 3.25m, boom or bust in 7 days.

At some point they are going to have to inform the world what they have been doing with the 50-80t of quicklime, they have been producing, since Feb.

Estimating 50t/60 days they have 3000t of premium quicklime @ £100/t = £300k revenue/20.5% = £61k revenue, or £30k a month. Add in aggregate sales, gross cash flow is around 50-60k a month.

Everyone and their dog are expecting a couple of great RNS, loan approval, lithium, sales contracts, etc.

With just over 6 months left in this phase of their plan, are they going to be able to get to full capacity for 2026 with 45% ownership ?

And what would that look like, loan approval would enable mass commissioning, activating the 3 kilns that are ready for calibration, and equipping the final 4. Annual earnings would rise from 420k expected this year to 6m plus, while net debt would significantly increase, a valuation of 14m wouldn’t be unrealistic, before other assets.

Time to let us know how it’s going?

Primarily the 2.5+ increase in orders, binder helps,

Delivery volume, global supply chain remodelling, but most of all, it’s new global reach.

If this is going to move and rerate to a 60-100m entity, expect a gradual increase to .16-.18, then all will be unveiled in June.

Held 25m/dropped 15m last peak, now holding 10m .115, and have zero interest in selling until 6-8p.

My prediction is initially following a similar pattern to last year, with a gradual ramp. If June is as expected and they are up 267% in orders v PY, then they have finally started to move in the right direction.