Stephan Bernstein, CEO of GreenRoc, details the PFS results for the new graphite processing plant. Watch the video here.
Technicals and fundamentals both looking like they are aligning for a nice move here. I've accumulated heavily in the last couple of months, so I'm happy to sit back and see where it goes from here. Appreciate all the good analysis on this forum as always.
It's looking to finally break out of a range it's been stuck in since the start of October. Don't want to speak to soon, but could the sentiment finally be shifting again? I'm nicely loaded up now, so fingers crossed.
Who knows, the penny might finally drop and the markets start seeing and understanding the story developing here. Been a big pull back and would appear to be plenty of upside from these levels.
Share buyback is going well, hopefully putting some solid foundations to the share price for the long term. Any indication whether they will significantly increase the dividend also? Clearly quite nominal currently, and maybe now is a good time to increase this given the strong cash position.
I think there is a growing sense of inevitability developing here. As you say, another two licencing agreements to add to the many others on the books.
I don't think the market has accepted yet (somehow) the scale of the opportunity, or indeed the likelihood (inevitability?) or it happening. The Crispr/Vertex FDA approvals fully validate the platform - the treatment is seen as potentially reaching peak sales of $3bn. Assuming, for arguments sake, it peaks at $1bn and Maxcyte has an approx 3% royalty on the sales, then that would result in $30m additional income annual from this one treatment. On top of that is the consumables (no idea what that would be worth per year, but presumably 7 figures), and additional sales/lease of the machines.
Crispr/Vertex have outlined that they intend to open 50 treatment centers, and you would have thought that each would have a one of the Maxcyte machines to produce the treatment. Previous investor presentations have outlined that they cost $250k p/a for lease for clinical use. Perhaps crispr/vertex will buy the machines for each site, but assuming they pay $250k p/a lease for each of the 50 sites, then that alone equates to a further $12.5m p/a in revenue.
This one treatment could therefore sustain circa $45m p/a in revenue for Maxcyte (based on conservative figures), which exceeds the entire current revenue. And this is just one programme. There are 25 partnerships signed since 2017, and 125+ clinical licences related to the partnerships, of which 2 are approved, 1 is in a pivotal trial, 10 are in phase 1/2, and numerous others are in phase 1. All of these will be leasing the machines, paying for the consumables, and potentially paying milestones should they progress.
Yet here we are, with circa $200m in cash, $400m mcap, and therefore $200m EV - which is frankly almost unbelievable. The upside is huge and, as I say, now almost inevitable.
Not sure the double edge sword analogy fits here, given that the company seems (now) to benefit (in different ways) from either scenario, although I do appreciate the point you are making.
I suspect the current share price is driven predominantly by technical, as opposed to fundamental, factors. It's had a great run over the last few years, and a pull back is not surprising. As others have mentioned the share price is now at a relatively familiar support level, and can hopefully find that support and advance much further. Some good discussion on here about this company, and I appreciate the analysis, can only see upside in the medium to long term personally.
Chester - the question I keep coming back to in my head is why the deals for exosomes appear to have dried up? There was a relative flurry of deals around 2018 to 2020, but nothing substantive since. Is it that exosomes aren't seen as a viable option for whatever reason (scalability, consistency etc)? Or is it that the first generation HEK derived exosomes (that the pre clinical deals were done on for codiak and evox etc) were found to have significant limitations?
If it's the former, then they may as well just pull the plug now. If it's the latter, then perhaps Rene is sitting on something huge that the industry has been waiting for. Proof will be in the pudding, and we will presumably find out one way or another in the next couple of months.
Not quite sure what to make of the 1.7m share 'sell'. Maybe it's a buy been worked for a few days at an average price above what was preceding? Would certainly seem odd if its a sell on the same day the price is up 13%. Curious action nonetheless.
As LWHL says, if they do sign terms (anyone's guess how likely that is) then it could result in one of the biggest days for any AIM share ever, given how low a starting point we're at now. £1 a share still only values the company at less than £60m, which is really very little.
Pure speculation what the share price could be of course, but a £60m market cap doesn't sound unreasonable to me if they can achieve terms similar to what others have agreed with equivalent (inferior?) preclinical data. To be clear, I'm not ramping or saying it's going to ten or twenty bag etc etc, it may very well go bust, and people need to be abundantly aware of that, if they somehow weren't already.
Maybe there's one last twist in the tail after all. Certainly a very positive RNS, and it will be interesting to hear what comes from the conference today. Need a licencing deal signing to keep the lights on though. If they're discussing terms with partners then I presume no further director buys would be possible.
Any further equity raise is completely unrealistic at this point. So they either are expecting/confident of signing licencing deals, or busy drafting the RNS that confirms the lights are being switched off and trying to find anyone who's willing to stump up for the IP. With an MCAP of £2.9m, you would hope/presume the IP is worth more than that, but only if someone actually wants it.
Nice to see an uptick - wonder if someone has knowledge of the data? Hopefully it's released very soon and demonstrates the promise that has been indicated by the company.
Still steadfastly refuse to get excited by any movements at this level though - deep underwater...