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I had a scalp long on the MIB from 168.52 which I've just closed out at 169.10. Markets are just too quiet. The MIB has just made a strong move up and can certainly float higher, but it's too much effort for now and also DAX is back into resistance, but that can also break easily now.
UK FTSE has supp at 6437, 6418-6413, 6396-6400 It's still weak today, so not the best index to look for long scalps. There's practically no volatility today so hard for scalping and you're more likely to lose money than make it unless you are looking to keep wide stops with wide targets with good entries. The Dax has just tagged my lower support level and even that can break now. It has more support at 6986, whilst the MIB still has support at the previous support level of 168.10
Thanks for the advice Farmer :p
European Market Update: Good Morning Traders! The Italian MIB has bounced off my support level of 169.10 and seeing a decent bounce so far. The key is now to see if it can close and hold above 169, if it can, it could lead the markets higher. However, the DAX is struggling currently around my 7927 level and the UK FTSE is just about holding on to gap fill and are both showing some weakness. I do expect the MIB to be the strongest later today so it needs to make its move and the others should follow. I mentioned last night that both European and US markets are into very good resistance, and therefore could see some sort of pull back today, and whether we have seen the full extent of the pull back or whether there is more to come will be determined by what levels are held/lost. If the DAX loses 7904 then more downside should be expected.
29 April 2013 US Markets Update: The S&P has shown some weakness the past 3 days and so has the DOW, however, the DOW is now showing more strength and leading the markets higher. The past few days the key markets have been leading the rally, which was a sign of strength and was part of the reason why I didn’t short the markets as I knew they would hit 159.20. However, with the DOW now leading, and this is something I had said we would see, markets can float higher but on a weaker rally, which means they could be vulnerable at some point in the near future. The key resistance level still remains at 159.20. If markets capture this level, and by capture I mean a higher high close above (confirmation), then we are likely to see a rally beyond 15000 on the DOW and 1600 on the S&P, providing we also confirm above these levels. After closing out my swing long on the DOW last Monday for a nice gain, I am now looking for new long entries should we get good opportunities, unless technicals dictate another leg down. Remember the reason for exiting my DOW long was due to the fact that at the time, markets were still weak and the DOW was the weakest of the indices so it was prudent to do so. It’s important to take profits when you get given great opportunities, because sometimes, if you get too greedy, the markets will take away all of your potential gains. A swing trade can easily be in the money for days and then come back and close you out for a b/e or even a loss. It’s not a winning trade until you close the trade out for a profit! The EURO should also see upside today with a breakout likely. As you will know, I was long the EURO last week from the key 12990 level which held amazingly all week! I wasn't prepared to hold over the weekend so closed my long trade on Friday, but is still looking good to make a breakout move to the upside. I am looking for a re-entry on a decent pattern or pull back. Look for some early strength in the NASDAQ today but it should be weaker later unless it can hold key levels. The daily key for QQQ (NASDAQ ETF) is for it to capture the 69.80 level. If it can do that, it can rally strong, and with AAPL looking like it will go higher too, this is likely to happen soon. AAPL however, needs to clear the 20DMA, preferably on a gap up, but it may struggle there today if it can’t gap above or get above it early today. AAPL could be a potential swing long around the 409 or 406 areas, but we need to see how the technicals look around that time as well as the markets in general. AMZN is now showing great weakness, it frustrating that I had to exit my swing short last week due to the earnings release, but AMZN has been a very weak stock for a while now. The weekly is now looking very vulnerable, whilst only the daily and 60min show some signs that it will bounce soon. The 200DMA and the gap fill could provide a quick swing long opportunity, but may only last intra-day or for 1 or 2 days, so if I do pick it up, it will likely be a scalp-to-swing trade, but there is a lot of other support in that area too. I would be very careful with AMZN though, as the weekly is suggesting a lot more weakness to come, with my next major level not until the 241.50-244 area. Today, I do believe AMZN should be strong early but continue to be weak later unless it can hold key levels and it could easily see the 200DMA today, especially if markets are weak. CVX is catching my eye once again. Having been short on this stock and making good profits earlier in the month, I exited the last part of my short position last week prior to earnings which were released on Friday. CVX continued its rally on Friday, however, for a stock that had released earnings, it was on poor volume! This makes me think whether CVX is running out of steam and will pull back in the next day or two. It is coming into very good resistance at 120.70-121.22, however, if markets remain strong, CVX may only get a small pull back or continue to float higher. I’ll be keeping an eye on the stock to see what signals are there, but for now, the intra-day technicals look strong. Gold is currently hovering around my key level of 1474 that I’d mentioned almost 3 weeks ago. Gold can still pull back from this area as it is a major level, however, I think it is likely we will see 1500 before seeing a more significant pull back in gold for now, and with a decent chance that gold could even get back up to the 1535-1565 area, with 1548-50 being a major area, before the next major leg down. In the US markets this week, we have the all important NFP data out on Friday which could be a potential turning point for the markets, although I do not expect it, unless we have a significant rally leading into Friday and markets are at a pivotal level. https://www.facebook.com/CTCATrading @TradeTechnicals
Good morning everyone! Hope you all had a great weekend!? I posted this on my blog earlier but forgot to post it here... The Italian MIB is the Index to keep an eye on today as it could get to my first target today. The key level to watch for now is to see if it can stay above 16813. The key levels for the DAX are 7857 and 7824 and if it gets below gap fill, you then need to watch 7794. The UK FTSE is weaker today compared to the other European indices, however, it is forming a bullish daily pattern which may just need a little more time to complete before breaking out, but this will only happen if other markets continue to show strength. The EURO should also see upside today with a breakout likely. As you will know, I was long the EURO last week from the key 12990 level which held amazingly all week! I wasn't prepared to hold over the weekend so closed my long trade on Friday, but is still looking good to make a breakout move to the upside. I am looking for a re-entry on a decent pattern or pull back. I can see markets floating up this week on light volume, as most of the European, as well as Hong Kong, Singapore and South African markets are closed on Wednesday 1st for Labour Day and then on Monday 6th, the UK markets will be closed. It therefore seems likely that we will continue to see more upside over the coming week or so with markets pushing up to key levels, before potentially seeing a May top. In the US markets this week, we have the all important NFP data out on Friday which could be a potential turning point for the markets, although I do not expect it, unless we have a significant rally leading into Friday and markets are at a pivot level. The Italian MIB, as I mentioned on Friday, has initial upside to 16960, and today is the strongest of the European Indices currently up over 1.5% and almost at my target. It then had more resistance around 17150-17280. Gold is currently hovering around my key level of 1474 that I’d mentioned almost 3 weeks ago. Gold can still pull back from this area as it is a major level, however, I think it is likely we will see 1500 before seeing a more significant pull back in gold for now, and with a decent chance that gold could even get back up to the 1535-1565 area, with 1548-50 being a major area, before the next major leg down. Brent Crude has had a great move off my 98.75 level, up over $4 from that level. It now has upside initially to 105-105.50 and then can possibly get as high as 107, but for now we need to see how it reacts to its current resistance area at 103.50. For now, it is consolidating but we need to see which way it breaks. ____ had a scalp long off the 7824 level on the DAX and still holding 1/4 of the scalp long. Anyone who wants to follow me or does follow me, My current blog site is: https://www.facebook.com/CTCATrading but will be changing to https://www.facebook.com/TradeTheTechnicals later this week. Also, I'm on Twitter too @TradeTechnicals I'll keep updating posts here when I remember! :)
hahaha
haha haven't heard "TTFPYC" in over 2 years!!!
If DAX does sell from here, it can easily see 7727 today!
Morning! Quick update for you guys as I'm still writing up my report. Dax is weak today, so is the FTSE, but despite being down the most, the Italian MIB is holding up the best IMO, and that's what I expected, with it potentially being stronger later. Whilst the DAX is weak so far, it might start to consolidate bullish from here, and if it does I may consider a long but they can easily sell-off more from 7800-25 area. Today is very tough as markets have been tricky so far so I have stayed clear. As a general overview: European markets have also seen a decent rally as of late, with the DAX reversing the huge down day from last week, however, the DAX is lagging by a long way and as the backbone of Europe, it should be leading these markets higher, so Europe looks vulnerable or at least weaker. The MIB however, has initial upside to 16950 if markets continue to rally.
As posted earlier: http://t.co/RdTyeQovtC "I've got to head out, but I think the HOTD will be around the 159.17-20 level. I suspect price will pierce and may even close above but not confirm above it." Exactly as I said, and what a great sell-off! I got back home just in time to see the fall, but didn't trade it as I missed the high :(
You're welcome scubaz
Good afternoon everyone! https://www.facebook.com/CTCATrading Twitter: @chirag1082 25 April 2013 Market Correction Phase Update: Yesterday was a very subdued day as I said it would be, however, the close was very important as we failed to confirm above the 2 key levels of 156.48 and 157.52 on the SPY daily. This still leaves things open. The next major level to watch is the 158.82-5 area and then 159.20. If we confirm above 159.20, the correction phase is likely to be over. I’d mentioned in my original report that whilst I thought this was likely to be a major correction leg down, until key levels were lost, there was no reason to think markets would head lower, and so far, the bounce has been very strong. But similarly, the down move is not over until key resistance levels are taken out. Yesterday was a narrow range day, with markets ending weak. Yesterday the DOW could not catch a bid all day, but both the SPY and the DOW look ready for a bounce. It’s important to note that both also held key intraday levels on a close, SPY 157.87 and DIA 146.44. Whilst the intraday pattern suggests a short-term bounce, this could be off a gap up, but other than that, I am expecting early weakness. As I said yesterday, earnings season makes it difficult to predict what will happen day-to-day and overall, but there could be a pull back for a day or two before a further move up, especially as a lot of stocks are struggling at key levels. I’d said in my original report (http://t.co/48lgen9wQW) that I was looking for a bounce into May which should not take out the ATHs, where we could look to re-short the market and this looks likely as things stand. AAPL will be key to watch today, yesterday’s move was disappointing as it couldn’t hold its gains, however, if it can clear the 412 area, it can rally. If not, it can easily continue to sell down, but it is likely to be able to hold up with the markets for now, although having just reported earnings, it may need a couple of days to calm. https://www.facebook.com/CTCATrading Twitter: @chirag1082
Nice Blowster!
24 April 2013 Market Correction Phase Update: As I mentioned in yesterday’s report (http://t.co/Kmzp04bBtE), markets are due more upside and whilst I originally was planning to re-short the S&P at 157.52, my read of the charts was suggesting a possible move up to 158.75-159.20 area before seeing the next leg down, hence I did not take a short yesterday after it hit that key level, which so far, seems to be the correct decision. The only concerns I have are firstly, that we are in earnings season and this may play a role in keeping markets up for now, in which case we could see a new high being made, and secondly, that SPY held 154 on a closing basis. These two factors keep me a little on edge and also knowing how resilient these markets are. So any shorts I take, will be with great caution at this time and I will not take any shorts until the charts show me strong signals of a reversal coming. As per my previous posts, I did have a DOW swing long from near the lows of this up move but closed that out for a very decent gain as markets came into a key level. I will continue to look for long swing trades providing markets show signs of rallying further. I continue to hold my AMZN and CVX swing shorts as my entries on both were right near the highs and so are still safe in that respect, however, I will expect to exit before earnings are released on them later this week. I posted an update yesterday saying the high of the day yesterday would be 157.87 and that the level would not be lost on a confirmation basis, and indeed the level held brilliantly! CAT also hit the 84.52 level around the same time which also held on a confirmation basis. A lot of charts hit good first resistance yesterday on daily charts, so it is possible to see a pull back from there, although, with the mini-flash crash yesterday, we have possibly seen that pull back already so markets can be free to move up more although I would expect a more subdued and choppy day compared to yesterday. I wasn't expecting much of a gap on earnings on AAPL this time. Time just didn't seem right. I'd actually mentioned yesterday that it would most likely be a non-mover, and it was up $20 after hours which is nothing on AAPL. AAPL still wants to come down lower in the coming weeks. https://www.facebook.com/CTCATrading Twitter: @chirag1082
Euro looks to get to 132 minimally Just posted a FX update http://t.co/FfNbi6fHzX
Good morning! The games continue with today being expiry day, notice how gold and other commodities are bouncing back nicely. I expected this at the start of the week. Gold sold off on Friday getting puts on board and with Monday’s sell-off they will have drawn in more amateurs into puts and all week they have been slowly bringing it back up. After Monday’s collapse, I was thinking they might take it back up to 1450 by the end of the week, however, that seems a bit far off for now, but you never know! US markets played out very well yesterday. We hit the 154 level finally after near-tagging the area yesterday and then tagging it early yesterday before a decent bounce. I hadn’t covered my S&P swing short at that point as my key level had not been hit. It’s very easy to let emotions take hold of you and your trading when you concentrate on the intra-day price moves and see your shorts profits dwindling, however, if you take a step back and look at the bigger picture, you will be more relaxed and see what is really happening. I’d been mentioning all day about the 154.80 level and said providing they don’t recapture that level, markets would sell-off again and that is exactly what played out. I am currently in a state of uncertainty, my first target on the SPY has not yet been hit, the 152.90-153 area, however, as I have been saying, I do believe the 154 is a key area too and could see a bounce for a couple of days. The worst I expect for today is a close above 153.60 but it is possible for them to move the markets back up towards the 155.27 level. If markets see some early selling below the lows of yesterday I will take some profits on my S&P swing short and possibly even take it all off and then wait for the bounce and re-enter. To be very clear, the charts are now telling us that markets are coming lower, towards my T1 and T2 targets in the coming days and weeks, so any decent bounces are shortable, providing there are no major news catalysts. As I’ve said, it is possible for a move back up to 156.48 and 157.52. To review my previous report on the market correction phase see: http://t.co/48lgen9wQW The DIA also closed down nicely yesterday and I’d mentioned the DIA was the one I was particularly interested in yesterday, and it closed below my key 145.32 level, but I do expect it to bounce off that level. Swing shorts update: As posted yesterday, I took partial profits on some trades yesterday as follows: AMZN hit my T1 so I took half off CVX already pierced my T1 and was half way to my T2 so I took half off yesterday. S&P – I am still waiting for my 153 area but to be prudent, I will take some off if we sell-off tomorrow around the lows of yesterday, preferably on a pierce. ___ I've just picked up a swing long on the DAX at 7490. It's a scalp turned into a swing so I have a break-even stop in place already. Dax isn't looking particularly strong, but nor is it looking too weak, and I do believe it is due a bounce. SO this is more of a hedge, just in case the US markets do bounce before getting to my 153 level as I suspect they can. First small target is 7580 then will need to see how price reacts there to determine if it is likely to continue higher.
Blowster - I'm not saying I'm expecting a bounce to 7635 although it could happen. And whether that level holds all depends on how price gets there. What I meant was, I wouldn't consider scalping short until that level. 7600 was a good level, but too risky IMO. I posted a US update on my blog earlier. Anyone who trades the S&P 500, you should also look at the SPY - it's the US ETF and works very well. I trade purely off that, and rarely look at the S&P 500 intra-day. Also, the DJIA - I use the DIA which is the ETF for the DOW Jones.
Blowster - I don't check this forum too much as very busy on my blog most of the day and also on the charts. But I posted some things earlier on the blog so copied and pasted here: "I don't think it's a 'real' bottoming tail in honesty. Sure, it is technically speaking, but it bounced off a key level. Dax is weak, there was no immediate follow through on the b/tail. I was looking to short 7606 but will now wait for 7635" Some resistance at 7622. 7562-3 is my area, but it has already been retested. So not really an area I would trade. IMO - it's coming down! You could see a short-term bounce at 7559-63 area but I wouldn't trade it personally. I do expect a bounce to 7635 though.
Market Correction Phase Update: As I mentioned last Thursday, I thought the market closing high had been put in and we would see further declines in the US markets. That appears to be playing out so far. My expectations are that we are likely to be in a major correction phase now. This has a potential to give a 10%+ correction in the markets overall. Please note, I am not saying this is definitely a major correction, anyone who has followed my analysis will know I do not make bold ‘guesses’, I make objective claims based on pure technical analysis and make trades on that basis also. So it is important to continue to watch the technicals and analyse them objectively as the story unfolds, as it is too soon to make any real claims with a sound basis and validity. On Monday the SPY broke 3 key daily levels that I’ve been mentioning for some time and on decent volume, whilst yesterday we saw a decent bounce overall, but the intra-day action was relatively poor and on lighter volume. The gap up yesterday was significant and opened as to suggest further strength intra-day, which is exactly what happened and I’d said to watch the lower level of 156.04 which was pierced but held and the upper level of 157.52, which was tagged towards the close. But despite this, markets are still weak and technicals are suggesting more declines. It would have been much better if this fall had not occurred during Options Ex week as it just complicates things and anything can happen, but, unless the charts dictate otherwise, we should see 154 this week on the SPY, which is a minor level. Depending on how price reacts there, we could see a fall to the first major which level is 152.89-153 which is “Target 1” (T1). However, it is possible we could see a small bounce there, otherwise, we’re heading straight to T1. I would expect a more sustained bounce at T1 (note T1 could pierce down to 152 before bouncing). If this plays out to expectations we could hit T1 around 25th April and see a bounce into early May. I’ve not had time yet to really consider actual dates, but this is just a quick guide on timing. I do expect a decent bounce from T1 and this could take us back up to 156.48 or 157.52 but too early to say until we see the technicals. Again, depending on technicals, the next decent level to the downside is around 149.50-150.15, and the next major level, “T2” is at 147-147.25. T3 is at 140.78-142. And I do believe these downside targets are achievable, however, they are a long way off and too early to be speaking of those levels right now. Markets are still in a strong position in terms of price, so let’s not think about the lower levels until key levels are broken. So for now, the line in the sand is T1, at 152.89-153. A lot of analysts will tell you markets are going to fall ‘x’ amount, or are going to climb to new highs, but that’s all nonsense as anything can happen as long as key levels hold or until key levels are broken. The charts are a thing of beauty, they really do tell a story but it’s up to you to read them properly and decode their meanings, there’s no point in guessing because you’ll either be right or you’ll be wrong! More updates at: https://www.facebook.com/CTCATrading Twitter: chirag1082