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Global inflation is falling in the US and EU so did people really think the UK would somehow keep going up?
We are lagging two bigger markets due to poor energy policy and greedy companies.
UK suffers due to bad policy as usual
You are a clown if you think the share will hit 6 quid.
Zero debt with massive land bank. Mass immigration and shortage of housing. Rates will fall to 2-3% minimum This makes housing market move and HTB to get buyers on the market and encourage builders to build faster.
So why we up 4.5%
Everyone was saying we going to 6 quid?
Help2buy is 20% or 40%(london) stake and the government made around 7k profit off my house in 5 years. In return i got 5 years interest free loan of 67k and mortgage rate of 1.7% instead of 2.8%. It was a very good scheme to use before they limited the value by area. My concern is that any new help2buy will not be very good as the last one was based on very cheap money and low rates and it was also not limited to FTB either.
I do not see the government bringing back HTB in its most useful form unless the market grinds to a halt and seizes up completely which at 7% rates is certainly possible. In 2009 people were cash poor after being wiped out in crash and also heavily in debt.
It looks like builders are cutting production by 30-50% which will be a catastrophe and the cries of no where to live will force the government to do something but likely more limited than previous HTB schemes
If Euro and US inflation falls then the UK will follow.
Only an idiot would think that it wont happen at 6.6% mortgage rates.
If the fed cuts then USD priced goods will also fall relative to the GBP.
Give it 12 months and we should see calmer waters and housing demand will be pent up waiting for developments to start.
This isnt 2001 or 2008.
This stock is down just as much as all the other ones i started watching at the same time. Vodafone is down nearly 25% in same time. Same with Aviva etc
The BOE is wrecking the economy and it will take everything down with it.
All money is fake. They literally create it from nothing since the gold standard was dropped, its just on a balance sheet now. QE is an injection of liquidity. The price rises come from shortage of supply in a market with high demand. High demand comes from immigration and generation rent stuck renting because 22% of the housing stock is landlord owned.
We are going to be trading on sentiment not facts. Mortgages were up in May but BOE has killed that in June i can tell you that.
Inflation is a big problem caused by greed and nothing more. Its mostly landlords which are offloading rental property at the moment which is driving the 18% increased houses for sale.
Build rates are down 30% so supply will be lower going forward and as is usual there will be pent up demand where people dont buy and they save and that will then start a new cycle.
i just dont know how long that will be but if you think PSN is worth less today than 2012! i dunno what else to say.
Unsold inventory is TERRIBLE. Its money you have already spent and cant recover. WTF are you even talking about!!! Thats a LIABILITY NOT AN ASSET. Those are houses you cannot sell! This does not make the company worth more it makes it worth less as you are forced to discount margin to move them.
PSN have the most affordable new builds out of the top 5. They also have one of the best land banks if not the best. Impeccable financials and solid cash at hand. Builders have cut production by 30% which means cost inflation will fall because of inventory in materials no longer short of supply. Same with Labour shortages. This will drive down inflation. We are at the end of the last cycle now 12 months in. a New super cycle will start at the first sign of green shoots in 2024 and then strong demand will be back in 2025 onwards
Explain how.
Berkely is 9x p/e 2022 and 0.5% divident.
Same with Bellway.
so why is psn down double versus other builders?
this is mm manipulation the p/e is already 4x. 2022 earnings.
are they expecting to sell no houses at all in 2023/4? market is taking the ****
A market correction is not a crash its a price correction. Prices went up to high too fast.
2008 was a LIQUIDITY CRASH. NOT A RATES CRASH.
House Builders will just have to be sensible with pricing and buyers will have to be sensible with lending.
Any slowdown in demand will be saved up like a coil which will release as rates fall. Maybe not to zero but 2-3% is healthy
I think you are in dreamland if you think the SP will hit 4 GBP.
It wasnt rates in 2008 that killed the market it was a liquity crisis from toxic mortgage backed securities.
Rates in the US have been at 6% for months for homeloans. Go check what is happening in that market. Same in Canada and Australia which have massive house bubbles. Market here is likely to see a small correction because pent up demand will bite even at 5%
The government cannot afford housebuilding to stall as it takes years to get it back and we have 600k new people coming here every year. Rents are about to skyrocket so its not like that is a cheaper way to live.
Rubbish.
My house was 335k 5 years ago and now they want 430k for it. You telling me it costs 100k more to build my house in 5 years? 30% increase?
They will cut wages for contractors and cut the prices for materials when the slump comes which will push up margins per unit.
Inflation has already dropped in June. Butter is 1.90 from 2.50. Potatoes 1.50 from 2.50 and steak is back at 2 for 8 from 6 quid each. This started weeks ago but doesnt show in the MAY CPI
Why would it hit 2009 where banks were going under there was zero liquidity and builders couldnt sell houses due to no mortgages.
There is lending, its more expensive and inflation is to high because people keep spending.
As soon as inflation falls and recession comes the rates will be cut. Help2buy will be back on and the cycle continues.
This isnt a financial world meltdown like 2008. Its just expensive money. Builders will just throw in incentives like free carpets and patios and adjust the size of houses they build.
On my estate they keep building 550k 4 beds. Because planning said they need X number of 4 beds. Well they could build much smaller 280k 4 beds and more of them closer together.
They will adapt for the market. Smaller houses, more units cheaper spec.
THERE IS A SHORTAGE OF HOUSES
Prices fell 25% in 2008 but that wasnt the problem.
The problem was banks would not lend so nobody could buy a house rather than margin per sale. Remember costs fall when demand drops. Materials would get cheaper and wages fall too. Both have gotten out of control lately.
At times i regretted not selling at 300p but right now im glad i got out at 230p with a profit.
what a mess
Vitaly also said they wouldnt quit the LSE.