Rainbow Rare Earths Phalaborwa project shaping up to be one of the lowest cost producers globally. Watch the video here.
Moon, yes i agree. I'm very positive about this one over the longer term but can possibly see this drift again as no news for another 3 months. It's just a sit tight share really & add on weaknesses. Will come back to it's glory over the longer term!
Moon, yes when i initially read that i thought boom, boom but then thought what impairment will they announce to spoil it later on? A bit of an all jam tomorrow statement which the City never usually likes!
This is my second biggest holding at a lovely low 60s average. Only regret not buying so many more as my other stuff is underperforming . This should sail over the £1 very soon i would think now results will calm any fears.If Mobico does an update like this one on Thursday i'm a happy bunny!
For me, so long as the revenues are continuing upwards that is what i want to hear in the update. This is a hugely cash generative business & as long as that is continuing i see no problems with future refinancing. This is an investment grade company not an AIM tinpot. On the inflation front. Well, it'll continue for a while i'm sure & the BoE seems a bit useless. However i've seen fuel prices plummet at the pumps personally. Diesel was £2 a litre at one stage last year. I can now get it for less than £1.40. that is a huge part of MCG's cost base. I've added at the low 90s & now have a sub 110 average overall on a huge chest of shares here. Happy to sit on these for a few years but will add further if we revisit those lows again. A bizarre SP IMO but a great opportunity for those who can hold out & ignore all the BS noise around them!
It seems to me that the impairment cost relating to ALSA is what's scuppering this along with general poor sentiment. Without it we'd be showing a large profit & debt lower than 2019 numbers. There isn't much detail in the presentations about how this huge impairment cost came about. Surely they'd be expecting something back if this has been done to subsidise the fares in Spain. Isn't it the Spanish authorities role to do that like WM buses. As i say not much detail about it in the presentations!
On Friday the trading volume was 1.7m shares. There are 614m shares in issue. Those 1.7m share are not 1.7m individual shares. They are a fraction of that number being constantly churned over & over again by the short sellers on miniscule algo trades to manipulate the price down. All a big game!
JG, i totally understand & share your sentiment. The SP constant downtrend is unsettling especially when you have a large holding which i do. However despit sitting on a fairly large paper deficit i'm more comfortable with this company than many others i've been in on. I was down about £20k on PFC a couple of years back & went in much bigger when it tanked to 90p or thereabouts. I pulled them ones at around 138 as i recall & ended up £25k in profit. It's just how this game works. You have to endure the pain before you enjoy the gain. I can't see any reason why the July update should be bad. My reservation is they may do a CR. I see no need for one seeing as they have £800m in cash & RCF but they may be under pressure from larger investors to sort things out. all we see at the moment is the company being prudently managed. It is external matters outside their control which is causing this rout!
The fact that theoretically this entire business could be bought out for @£570m at the current level is just totally illogical. The markets are irrational. JG, you're in on PFC. Look at that. smashed down to 46p & straight back up. 888; THG , IAG. There's been loads of this nonsense going on!
Https://www.mobicogroup.com/media/4zqjlmqd/national-express-full-year-results-2019-release.pdf
JG,
Please view the attached link re FY2019 results. Yes i agree the impairment cost relating to ALSA is clouding things here. Most notably the PBT & EPS figures. But look at the other numbers here. Not much different to current performance. Net debt even higher. We all know where the SP was when these numbers were released.
My outlook on MCG is 5-10 years not 5-10 minutes or 5-10 days That has always been my strategy with this investment. If we had crystal balls & could predict everything then there wouldn't be any market to speak of. Noone knows where the SP may or may not go. Sentiment & circumstance can change in the blink of an eye in this gig. I'm comfortable that if things go along well this company should have annual EBIT in excess of £200m. A company with those earnings numbers is not worth only £500m but much more than that. Chopping & changing from share to share & crystallizing losses never works especially if you are selling out on no news at all which is what is happening here. People are selling on unwarranted fear fuelled by short sellers. This share is grossly undervalued & time will prove me right!
Marstons is a pub business. Along with housebuilders these businesses are affected by the COL crisis far more than essential transport services. interest rates are fixed at the moment & fuel is hedged but that is reducing anyway so they will rehedge future fuel costs at a lower price. If you think this business will need £200m+ to service it's debt you need the divvy maths class not the playground. A capital raise is not out of the question but no need if gearing is still reducing as it is currently hence the divi. Even if they paid 7% interest on debt that is £70m per year on £1bn. Peanuts on those revenues & margins. This is an investment grade business so of course it wouldn't pay those type of rates anyway. They also have £800m in undrawn cash & credit facilities to fall back on!
The day to day business is running in much the same way as it was pre pandemic. Picking up more new contracts along the way & with a multi million pipeline for more business. We are now in economic downturn & sentiment is poor. Economies historically are cyclical: boom/bust etc... We are in the downward curve the question is how long will it all last before a recovery. These are the times to be accumulating shares at value prices. Not just MCG but many other stocks trading at huge discounts. Some will wait for the recovery but these prices will be history then. All down to whether you have the stomach for it all!!