The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring financial educator and author Jared Dillian has been released. Listen here.
JG, as i see it. If MCG could get £1bn for the school buses business they could clear their whole debt off & still have the rump of the business. I think if that were realistic we would not be sitting at 60p SP. Surely the markets have this all well sussed out!
JG, it will be for sure but they need a contingency (i.e. a replacement) for both CEO & CFO. I wouldn't be surprised if Jorge Cosmen took charge on an interim basis. There wouldn't have been gold wrapped biscuits & posh coffee being poured while they were giving this BS update!
When the SP is at this ridiculous level unfortunately low ball bids (e.g. 100-120 per share) have credibility. A few here have been in on THG. It happened there & that was nearly £8 less than 3 years ago. A valuation of school bus @ £1bn or anywhere near that is just pie in the sky when you could buy the entire MCG business nearly 3 times over for that money. The good thing about this announcement is that they've basically opened their doors to potential suitors for all parts of the business IMO. Won't be long before the vultures will be trying to get the quality parts of this business.
Guys, have i got it right regarding the current financing here now. With the new bond to replace the bridge to bond we are now reasonably solid (going concern wise) until 2028. So assuming revenue remains on the up & hopefully ROCE improves there should be no major finance stuff due until then. The short term drop i can bear as long as this is looking sustainable until the macro starts to improve which is starting to look like it's going to take rather longer than expected.
While it's not pleasant to see the SP take a good pounding, this could have been much worse. A RI would completely destroy your investment. they nearly always do! I'm sur the lenders are behind the decision to cut the divi & the planned asset sale. Long term this hopefully could be a good move. Depends how much they can get for NA business i guess. If they can shore up the balance sheet with that disposal this may not be a bad thing.It'll take a while to improve & like most shares now largely dictated by macro events. Once the interest rates/ inflation start to show a marked decline things should improve. Need a multi year outlook on this though. These are times to accumulate stocks like this & many others. The further the markets drop the larger the inevitable rerates when they happen.
Synthomer has been a bloodbath with a RI/share consolidation in one, & the SP close to the RI price now. I worked out if you'd bought that at 60p pre consolidation/RI your shares are worth about 10p now. While yesterday's update was a bit of a disaster here i feel the drop was overdone but the markets want change at the top for sure. These 2 have no credibility & must go. I've always taken a long term view on this one & i'm confident this will turn around with the right management. I thought with the bond refinancing sorted this was due an upturn but clearly not. Surely a NA sale would bring in a significant amount.The MC here now is looking extremely low!
Wow, took a look at this this afternoon & saw 60p so i thought they'd announced a RI. But, no. Axed the divi & cut the forecast. What ineptitude from Garat & Stamp to cut a divi straight after reintroduction & how can the forecast have changed so much in 12 weeks? A complete joke.These 2 need to go & go quickly. The market will not have any confidence with these 2 at the helm. They have overseen a complete value destruction with what is a fundamentally good business. 30% drop seems a bit overdone but really is no surprise. I can see it drifting sub 50 over the coming days/weeks if no decisive action is taken!
As i mentioned on here a few weeks back. this is a great little earner. I've been in & out of this a good few times. A wonderful stock. Great little company this & every time it fluctuates to the downside is an opportunity to make a chunk of dosh. I' m holding for a while this time though as that TU was very positive. !st slice off when it hits the 150!
All the clowns will vanish overnight once the SP turns here. Off to view the next one to talk nonsense about. This company has always had a high debt level as you expect from a high CAPEX business. The debt here is lower than it's been for a few years & is perfectly manageable. Ignore the noise. This BB has really become a bit of a waste of time now so i'll come back once the worm turns and all the fools have left to pastures new! GL to those who are invested & Dipper good luck with TUI; ASOS; Avidity. All your hot dips doing great as expected!
JC, the question you asked was a bit rhetorical. The question you need to be asking is why you took a position here in the first place? Then ask yourself has much, if anything (aside from the SP) really changed with this company when you took that position? You need to ignore all the noise. The markets are irrational atm & sentiments are rock bottom. That will change at some point. It always does!