The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
HotB2, yes - the process you refer to (the electrolysis of water) is entirely possible with methane as the fuel to drive the (endothermic) reaction. It is not a particularly cost effective process though. The carbon emissions from this process probably makes it "grey" hydrogen (me thinks).
There are some clever new technologies coming through - some chasing "green" hydrogen and some "blue" hydrogen. Both are zero-carbon emission processes but I have no clue of the economics of these processes.
Wikipedia has a nice summary of the various hydrogen options at
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hydrogen_production
Exciting stuff!!
Mr. Smith, I wish you well in proving that there is an unholy trinity at work here.
Maybe stay away from the personal insults and tell us:
1) to whom Tlou will sell the electricity from the solar PV plant;
2) how one makes "green" hydrogen from solar and / or methane?; and
3) how one raise finance without a commercially acceptable PPA from a counter-party with a credit rating that is good for the next 20 years.
If you respond with more personal attacks, obfuscation or general hogwash, I put it to you that you cannot answer 3 very simple but very pertinent questions.
I also put it to you that the other good people on this notice board look forward to your answer.
LOL! I missed all the fun yesterday!
OldBallie (me) is persona non grata in Mr Smith's world because I buy and sell based on a fundamental analysis of the stock. So in my world a commercially acceptable PPA is key to unlocking value. Mr. Smith does not attach value to a PPA.
I also know that there is only one buyer of electricity in Botswana - that being BPC. Nobody else by law. I.e. electricity from solar PV cannot be sold to anybody but BPC and they buy theirs through auctioned procurement programmes. Mr. Smith believes people are going to queue up to buy electricity from solar PV directly from Tlou.
I also know that green hydrogen cannot be made from methane or from solar PV or from a combination of the two because every methane molecule contains carbon. Mr. Smith has already Tlou selling green hydrogen to the world.
So, the long and the short of it is that Mr Smith and I live in 2 different worlds. He believes the the share should be talked up and he is happy to spread falsehoods to achieve his aim. I believe the share will react to events and facts. And in Mr Smith's convoluted world anybody from my world, is persona non grata. Which, of course, is just fine with me.
Mr Smith, yes - a GPA will change everything. I'm sceptical about CBM gas cracking the nod though. The Orapa turbines are chowing diesel at a massive cost to the country. They want gas ASAP - which mitigates towards imported gas and against CBM
Whizzer, I think you are right when you say that investors might be wanting the PPA to be confirmed before they react. This show has been on the road for too long so people are probably questioning Government's commitment.
The problem is not TG or the board. There is not much that they can do to speed up the process even though it must be very frustrating to see time pass.
The value in the share is partly the PPA (assuming a decent outcome) but more importantly in the gas resource. For the gas resource to be monetised, we need the PPA. A commercially attractive PPA is the key to unlocking a lot of value.
Now is not the time to sell...
Overheard a discussion in a pub on the week-end here in Gabs. I.e. please treat as a rumour...
Seems one of the officials at the Orapa site-meeting said that the Orapa tender is not a "development project". They want import gas - not sure where from though. SA does not have much of a gas industry. Maybe LNG from Angola?
Mr Smith, the PPA will almost certainly confirm the bid allocations. I.e. 2MW to 10MW.
There won't be a date forced on Tlou - it is not how these things work. Government will certainly ASK for a date by when we can generate into the grid and there may be penalties if we don't meet the date proposed. Dunno... we'll hear soon enough
Agreed
mmoagi, On your 00:37 post below... "Penny has dropped - Tony Gilby is also Mr Smith since they sing from the same song sheet.... And amazing how they both endlessly drone on ...."
An interesting idea hey, but I don't think Honest Tony and Brad Smith are one and the same person.
Tony is an Aussie as we all know. I've got 10 pound saying Brad is British. Probably officially retired. Ex-soccer hooligan maybe. My guess is that he is in Tony's part-time employ with a simple mission - pump the share! Hence the relentless praise-singing and love letters. Mostly harmless though me thinks.
If you're looking for an alter-ego for Tony, my money would be on MinorMiner. There is clearly a direct line into the company and his behaviour makes one think of an Aussie cricketer well versed in the not-so subtle art of sledging and taking sand-paper to the ball.
Mr Smith, thanks for sharing your wisdom with us.
I would gently point out that there is only one "500kV+ line" in Southern Africa - that being the line voltage on the Gauteng to Cape Town line currently under construction.
Ohhh... there is no such thing as a "500kV+ line" either. These things come in steps - 400kV down or 762kV up. A 400kV line only becomes economically viable at around 1GW of installed capacity.
Ah well, the role of the praise-singer in the African cultures never demanded intellect or understanding - just unquestioning allegiance and an ability to make much noise
On the numbers in the last 2 paragraphs...
If we make $100k p.a. revenue from a 1 MW solar PV installation, we'll be doing incredibly well.
Not sure about the solar resource at the site (we know it is good) but check your calcs?
No... it is not that simple. A 66kV connection on wooden poles won't be allowed to upgrade to (say) 132kV or 220kV. The line will have to be upgraded to a higher voltage (to avoid excessive line losses) and rebuilt at some point in the future. That is probably OK though - can't start with the cost of a transmission-level voltage for 2MW to 10MW
5 GW of solar! That is a lot of solar and one assumes it would be PV.
Which is potentially great news for anybody with gas-fired power.
That 66kV line looks awfully small. It won't evacuate more than (say) 30MW. A good start though - one can always build a proper line using the same servitudes later.
Mr Smith, if you are going to use my name as an alter-ego for AN Other, please get your spelling right.
And no... mrmoagi is probably not trying to make you look stupid. You're doing a fantastic job of that yourself.
Btw... think about using Twitter for your irrelevant off-topic posts?
Take a look at this link... some interesting background on the power sector in Botswana further down the article. TLOU mentioned specifically
https://allafrica.com/stories/202103300643.html
It is MW - MegaWatt. Short for 1 million Watts. There is no such thing as a Mw.
Get with the programme please
Absolutely agree. But who would want to be called Donk by somebody who refuses to see the upside of a statement to the effect that both Tlou and Kalahari are likely to get a PPA each?
Mr Smith is such a nice name! You know... like from The Matrix
Hotburri, Who is Donk?
Mr Smith thought I'm Donk initially but I'm not and there does not seem to be any posts from "Donk" that I can find
Minister, my 1st point is that tenders are evaluated for price. Credibility is a side-issue (unlike what Brad says).
My 2nd point is that I think both tenderers will get a slice of the action.
Tlou with 10MW and Sekaname with 90MW or
Tlou with 3MW and Sekaname with 97MW or
Tlou with 10MW and Sekaname with 97MW