Member Info for Num4

Investor reaction quicker than expected...
https://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotech/investors-flood-nimbus-125m-tyk2-programs-phase-3-launch

Scrambling to take a position in Nimbus tyk2. Yes we're earlier in the development but the funding and interest is off the scales at the minute. This will translate into our SP rising and big volume days ahead.

Yes Krone, we're getting close to real value here.
The risk reward scales are shifting in our favour again, another investment from our high net worths shouldn't be far away now.

Whatever "they" choose to do with this today just try and remember how far we have come here. The class now has an approved drug and this will give confidence to the pharma world, big pharma will now want a tyk2 as the income potential is huge to ignore. BMS is first but plenty room for more.

The difference is dosing patients and healthy volunteers. Healthy volunteers still 2022, patients 2023. No slippage here.
Strong language from Tim which is what we need now, they're good, we're better.
Place your bets.

Exactly what we needed, now that tyk2 will be in the media it's perfect timing for Sareum to release our clinical program news.
Now that there is no black box warning this becomes the benchmark for data.
A good week ahead, a better month.

You would expect that the consultants we've had on trial design know how to complete the paperwork correctly. I have no doubts about the approval.
I only fear the lack of market reaction, until the P1a results are disclosed, end of year hopefully.
GSK would be crazy not to try and get an agreement in place for the remaining 27.5% of SRA737, they will be looking at all the data, of which there is a lot and hopefully coming to the right conclusion. They don't need a partner eating into their profits on this, get rid of them now and reap the rewards.
Enjoy bank holiday everyone

I would say there is more to come considering the pullback.

Hi sad, always ensure your postings so thanks for bringing some more technical aspects to the board.
Can we really put a percentage value on the selectivity... And does that change with different doses.

Sounds to me like the current investors are still onboard and supportive.

License not far off, will they allow the HNWI another dip in.

I think a very strong remaining year approaching.

Hi Spurs, the thing with Sareum is, everything is a complete disaster, until it isn't. 2 years ago Tim said they are focussing on licensing SDC1801... Proactive video interview, once the trial is approved then it shouldnt be long, as the creative deals in bio will capture everything he wants and what he knows will appease the shareholders.
Additional PR firm appointment is not to spout the same message in a more controlled way.
Things are going to change here, it may be the CTA is the firing gun or preferably the announcement of further investment and cash in the bank to make the CTA approval RNS which will go widespread across industry imo show that Sareum have substantial amounts to progress this.
Good luck to you, I remember holding out for .5p for another £10k, when it went to .58p I jumped on it and the difference in that now doesn't bother me one bit. Soon after it was testing the 1p again and the rest is history.

What I recall is John confirming you can't target a site with a patent, but this is massively complex and I think John is the only man to confirm this, without an in person discussion instead of question and answer we won't get far. The confidence we should get is that nobody else is even trying Catalytic.
I think Galapagos discountinied theirs and Pfizer now spun it out to that new company...

VTX-958 is the tyk2 allosteric, they raised over a hundred million few years ago after coming out of "quite mode". Where is the preclinical data for this compound though, presentations at bio events showing preclinical proof of concepts... Can't see anything after a quick Google.
Jumping on the tyk2 bandwagon after it became apparent in 2019 it has huge promise.
No new competition in catalytic targeting though, why... It's way to difficult for a quick fix compound.

Phase 3 for last comment, but it'll be well out of our hands by then and hopefully called GSK1801.

13x more selective than the BMS offering, will that make a difference in phase 2 trials? Then the Nimbus TYK2 is over 13,000x more selective over BMS drug.
Interesting to know the benefits of the more selective compounds.
If your treating the disease to same degree with a x1 why use a x13 or x13k drug, if you don't have adverse events on the dosage why would a lower dosage of greater selectivity be chosen. BMS have the early lead and can obviously produce an enormous amount of data to support selecting their drug.
Will the big name pharma be favoured just because it's BMS...
Thankfully we can differentiate from all these battling their own battle and a SDC1801 Vs Deucravacitinib phase 2 in Psoriasis is the game changer.

https://endpts.com/incyte-axes-jak1-inhibitor-from-pipeline-2-years-after-a-phiii-flop-crushed-hopes/

That's the value of these programs.

Psoriasis is one of the easiest to recruit for, once the approval comes through it'll be in volunteers very quickly. As I said earlier I'd be happy with 50m upfront for 1801 at this stage, with a motivated partner and some short term milestones to accrue upto 200m on it passing a full phase 1 and entering phase 2.

What's it worth... Whatever the bio world is willing to pay to enter the tyk2 space after BMS gets the green light in September.

We all know the company line of better deals the further down the development you go, but let's look at what makes them better and how that would impact Sareum and the shareholders.
First of all, unless it has a billion dollar topline then it's not on the table, imo.
So would you as a shareholder be happy with 50milliom upfront now, or 100million upfront on completion of 1a, or 150m on 1b...
The further larger payments are always going to be on phase 2 and 3 progression which I don't think we will ever do, certainly not for 1801.
Will I be happy with 50m now, honestly, yes - because in the long run it doesn't matter, if you believe in the molecule and the science which we all do then the other milestones will be forthcoming. Taking the deal now will also progress 1802 at a faster rate. As once we sign off 1801, what are we going to do with 50million in the bank developing one compound on our burn rate. Then 1a is a success and another 50million comes our way, etc etc..
Once the BMS decision is made in September the want for a tyk2 in big pharma should increase, as John has stated, allosteric can't differentiate and that's their problem, we can, he believes we have the optimal amount of JAK1 selectivity, so the question is, do you trust his judgement on this. That's basically what we are investing in.
That preclinical deal with GSK and Mersana just shows what can be done; https://endpts.com/in-1-36b-biobuck-deal-with-gsk-mersana-touts-biggest-preclinical-adc-deal-ever/

Yes it's a jam tomorrow view but isn't that just a phrase the doubters use to dampen your will - when infact every company in the world is a jam tomorrow view otherwise there is no growth, no innovation and no investment.
Mid September then sign 1801 off to the highest motivated bidder with a mid and back loaded billion dollar value, invest in 1802, apply for orphan drug status and keep it until phase 2. That's good enough for me and it's not that I've lost faith, more we don't need to wait for a 200million upfront as we can't spend it - and we are approaching the funding window for 1b which we won't wait much longer than next month to secure imo.

Once BMS gets the approval in September, this adds value to us. As John mentioned, other allosteric tyk2s are pointless, they don't differentiate, we on the other hand have the optimal amount of JAK1 .
Recruitment won't be an issue and it's an upto statement so they'll just start soon as possible really.
It's one of the easier to recruit for imo.
Investors now need to double down and then they'll get their original options to recoup outlay now.
I was not feeling the enthusiasm today though from the company, John normally perks it up but he was very scripted during the presentation.
Funny how Stephen didn't allude to the current investors when challenged on II investment.

Krone, your on the mark with that discover. I wonder how this will differ with Consilium involved. As you brought to our attention they are a next level communications and finance platform. This looks like an excellent move. Thanks

SP movement disappointing, we're worth more than this. Can they get more from the HNWI before the IMC meet. That should be goal and the boost this needs, any mention of funding required as they did for the P1b casts a shadow.
Need to look back but thought fully funded P1.
Not disappointed with progress though, targets met, for once.
Does the Edison report get directions Comms to Tim, for 60k a year, I would say Yes. So the partnership comments are the he carrots being dangled. Discussions certainly happening, can they or do they need to attract more investment... NEDs should be making there money now, especially when it's approved. Date of IMC, any relevance..
This will now get alot more media attention just because it's in the he clinic.
Time to level up now.

Blockbuster, imo it's not worth waiting.
Instead of thinking what will increase SP, let's think about what will decrease SP, apart from the MMs on low volume which is mostly out of Sareums hands.
Again, my opinion, a delay to CTA would hammer this SP, I don't believe that would happen as we have been recently told it is on track and if you look back it's been pending for a while, the capsule formation doest delay the CTA. Consultants have been doing trial design so Tim and John would have even more confidence in this timescale or mid year for application.
Other SP drop would be a placing via broker - and them days are well gone.
SRA737 being shelved would hammer this, extremely unlikely considering the amount of combo data in the public domain and ICR support.

Can't see why this would go lower, especially now we're in July. My opinion, slightly biased, significant event before end of August.