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I dont doubt that RF have their fingers in many pies and some of those Pies went badly.. But..
The one big difference I see here is that MED was already on its knees in terms of the MCAP prior to RF getting involved. The MCAP is already almost "nothing" and after todays SP placing and the full RF loan is now ~5 x the current value of the company !! .. the risk / reward ratio for RF is very bad indeed.. its a terrible deal for RF should PyeBridge fail
This is what leads me to thinking that with a glass half full that if MED could get PyeBridge going at full capacity then the current MCAP has to be incorrect. For RF to extract / make a return here then MED has to succeed because the NAV wont be enough to cover the loans or the interest.
I just dont see RF wanting to liquidate MED as i think they will lose..
They might take a big chunk of MED.. but only if it succeeds !!
@CJ thanks for the info.. but its clear that our own re-testing was either never completed / or it was never published.
Tbh i am not that bothered about it.. but your right that Errawara have thrown a fair bit into this given their financial position.. so they must be fairly sure they will find something..
@all I dont think we ever had results of the Li re-tests ? there was talk of pegamite outcrops blah blah blah... but the test results were never published to my knowledge?
So you have to ask the question.. why would another skint explorer stump up chunky $500K to search for Li exclusive if nothing had ever been found ? Clearly the re-tests must have had enough of an indication of Li for this deal to have ever got off the ground.. if they were all dusters why would anyone bother ?
I really dont know.. its another UFO mystery.. this company really does have the correct name
I dont buy into the idea that Riverfort are the villans here.. clearly its the Management and companies like Riverfort take a large risk and finance dog companies like MED..
Ask yourself.. if you were asked to stump up £4M to run an almost bankrupt company with no liquid assets and a pile of debt what would you do ?
Who wants to end up trying to sell a load of old Gensets and wires..
Believe me I dont love Riverfort.. but I dont blame them either.. they will want a significant say in what happens.. they will also want their money back + change ASAP..
If MED survive and eventually dig their way out of this Mire then it was all worth it..
Like I say.. for me its still 50/50 win or lose gamble.. but if PyeBridge gets going full speed by the end of Q2 then MED has a punchers chance..
@David, personally i dont expect Mast to recover quickly if at all - it still looks like a binary play to me.. but clearly "the Plan" is to get its current primary asset into play ASAP.. Pyebridge.. this is the fastest route to revenue and in my book is common sense if the company are to survive in any form.
For the record I do agree that Riverfort are likely calling the shots to some degree, as they would not take on this risk without some form of control. Is that a bad thing ? im not really sure yet.. clearly they will have their own interests first and foremost over the shareholders of Mast. (thats obvious from todays placing)
The path to any kind of recovery beyond Pyebridge will require more detail which you would hope is now being worked on in parallel to the current activities..
@Smiller for me its about getting into production with the least risk and the most upside we can generate over the first 2 years of the Hank project.. this gives us a chance at consolidation of the company finances and a way forward to bigger and better things..
I would be happy with JVs all over the portfolio if it meant growing the company to be much larger.. but i would like to see Hanc0ck remain "in house" until we can see the true value of the rest of the tenement..
@AJ its a bit more complex than price alone.. there are a large number of costs involved.. too many to list also UFO are not really in a strong financial position to negotiate too hard with anyone, as we need the Capex to get the mine up and running.
All that said its not impossible to deal with the end customers, but for my money I would really want a "stable" Minimum 2 year hedged price and a trusted partner who has good finances and would survive any market fluctuations. So you might be giving away some of the potential profits to insure against many of the downsides.
You also have to take into account the benefit of dealing with a "western friendly" company.. I am not Anti- Chinese per se .. but i would rather deal with AA than an "actor" run by a communist state.
There is also the potential benefit that the Ore might not need to be shipped - perhaps we screen and dump it just up the road into AA's yard for blending ?
There are so many possible outcomes.. but the AA deal still looks to be a good one to me .
AJ .. quite often miners will want Higher grade Ore to "mix" with their own lower grade Ore to bring up the value .. Our product is High 50 - 65% in purity..
So Miners will take all we can give them.. tbh its the one thing that I never questioned here .. we can sell more than we can mine that is for sure
I have no clue what they will do in the longer term.. short term I would prefer they stay on the current plan.. lets get all the ducks lined up to mine.. the most important thing for us is now the financing..
We have all the contractors ready to go.. if UFO can keep the whole show in the short term.. then if the road and access agreements can be assessed from a position of power..
Yep I dont like that AA clause either.. i am sure we could get a 100% funded deal elsewhere. perhaps AA might change their minds ? I wouldnt want someone like Shyster to come in with $5M and take a bigger chunk of the pie than they deserve.. but that is likely to happen given the Mcap is now so low..
I guess Q2 will hopefully shed some light on things with the Project finance
@ Devil.. so from the RNS we could presume that we are still under the exclusive rights agreement with AA unless we have "agreed" to not bother with the deal anymore ? but that would be market sensitive thus should have been disclosed.
Have IOCA supplied the correct documentation and base case financials for the project ? who knows !
The deal was a good one in my eyes outside of the $5M we were required to stump up, as that now looks like a large chunk of cash..
Exclusive right commences immediately and will conclude the earlier of 60 calendar days after IOCA delivers to Anglo American an agreed Base Case Financial Model together with all necessary supporting documents or such later date that the parties may agree upon.
@Wents / Devil .. UFO has potentially a grizzly bear of a portfolio.. we have most in demand metals in some form or other.. Whats been interesting is that when Iron went for a Burton.. the Silver / PGM's went up.. If you think about it UFO is hedged from all sides .. if we add Lithium and maybe copper and nickel etc.. then there's not too much missing..
Sunlit uplands of the 2.7p price target.. Hanc0ck is the key to that.. all this other stuff might be good but its a sideshow for now
@Wents look a the chart .. its just the resumption of the long term downtrend.. we nearly broke out .. but there are some pretty strong forces trying to keep the downtrend in tact.. the trading action prior to the JV announcement was a clear sign of this.. UFO have the chance to push it higher .. but its going to have to be something pretty spectacular in my view..
I will be once again loading the boat below 0.0010p if it happens.. I dont want to see that price .. btw
They have been peddling that 2.7p figure for years now .. im not sure they actually check the current SP ;-]
That would give us an Mcap of £171M - not likely unless Iron Ore goes to $150+ and stays there.. then its "possible" if we can actually get the mine up and running at some point..
possible but not probable - Maybe next year lol...
Your right Sinterklaase I have been pretty bullish in the past but got really down about UFO for a while .. funny enough though i am more Bullish about the company given that we now have the License and the JV.. But you cant please everyone...
Its obvious that there are players pulling strings here behind the scenes.. but 50% of nothing is nothing if there isnt any Lithium !! or its not economical to mine.. If there is a big find then we get it drilled for free and we hold the right s to all the other goodies anyway..
I have to say that I dont hold the fantasy that Hanc0ck will flood the company with free cash to drill things anymore.. Unless there is a sustained uptrend in the price the margins are not that good and the costs to production will always be higher than the estimates..
Its clear to me that my original thoughts about what UFO would be by 2024 have been badly wrong on every front.. but the company does have good assets to develop in the right area of the world.
My expectations here are low, and tbh its made it a lot easier to deal with the constant Management failures and broken promises.. but for some reason it seems like they have finally started to deliver !!
I dont see the downside to the deal personally.. if you look at it purely from a newsflow point of view it has to add quite a bit of attention to the company.. opens UFO up to new investors that might not have been interested before.
Quite clearly technical trading continues to be the dominant force here.. the downtrend is firmly in tact.. even with two pretty decent updates the downtrend has stayed in place.. the selling on the JV news was pretty obviously coordinated..
lets hope UFO pull another rabbit out the hat soon and this trend can get broken.. or its a another leg to a lower low I am afraid..
Yes Chris.. you are again correct.. "Hard to keep up with really:)"
UFO has proven:
Silver
PGM's Rhodium / Palladium / Platinum
Iron Ore
UFO has yet to prove
Copper / other base metals
Gold
Lithium
So yeah its hard to keep up as UFO has them all..
Yeah on the face of it .. its right.. weve not given anything away.. we were never going to get around to exploring it anyway lets be honest.. but if they find a tonne of Li over there.. then they pay to develop it whilst we pocket 50% of it..
Clearly Hanc0ck is our primary focus.. I would lke to see a few more of these come in for the other areas.. EH etc..