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I have just got around to watching the stream.
I agree with you FlyingF.
Steve Edwards impressed me and made it plain to me that Norway will be the location for our new 'beach head'.
However, I doubt that Shell's norwegian assets are on the table now that Wael Sawan is in charge.
Ben van Beurden embraced a green transition whereas the only transition Wael wants is to boost production and earnings from oil and gas for the benefit of shareholders.
Funnily enough, 'Old' Serica, under Paul Ellis, had a foray into Norway back in 2007 before selling the licences in 2008 to Spring Energy in order to concentrate on Indonesia, the UK NS and Ireland.
https://www.serica-energy.com/downloads/releases/norwaysalefinal3006081.pdf
Very good news, I must admit I wasn't too hopeful that we would succeed.
Over 100MMboe of 2P and 2C now puts us back on the radar of buyers.
"As a result of this positive news, Kistos estimates Group 2P reserves of 36.2MMboe and 2C resources of 72.2MMboe, making the overall Group 2P reserves plus 2C resources, 108.4MMboe."
AA talks about how he got started, igas, rockrose, kistos, the windfall tax and the opportunities he sees in electric vehicles and/or sustainable aviation fuel.
https://youtu.be/VNCrE0sOdNA?t=2070
Got it, Many thanks once again for you time and help.
"In the Balder area, production was positively impacted by the completion of repairs to the subsea systems in late 2022. However, the riser integrity issue at Ringhorne, which occurred in February and was communicated in the fourth quarter report, continued to reduce production by approximately 5 kboepd in the quarter. Work is ongoing to repair the riser with expected completion in Q3 2023
Many thanks for the pointer SpArmada
Superb SpArmada! Just what I have been looking for! Thank you very much.
It looks like there has been some interruptions to production at Balder in April as the gross figure of ~233,000 barrels is way down on previous months (January ~620,000 barrels, February ~499,000 and March ~468,000 barrels)
Thanks to your input we can refine the net production figure for Kistos in April to a more accurate number, albeit downwards :(
Gas = ~4500 boe/d
Oil = ~~863 bbl/d
Production in April at GLA was down markedly on March, production around half March's numbers (maybe a maintenance shutdown?)
I haven't been able to locate production figures for Norway as yet, so will use the 2000 bbl/d given to us as a rough estimate by AA. The additional 2k from Norway has made up for the loss from GLA resulting in a small uplift in net production month to month of 58 boepd.
Total net production for Kistos = 6623 boepd (March 6562 boed, February 7505 boepd)
Q10_A
Total production 24.857.296Nm3 (150,298 boe) or 5010 boepd.
Net production 60% = 3006 boepd.
GLA
Total production 43mmscf/d of gas and 93 barrels per day of oil. That makes 8088 boepd.
Net production 20% = 1617 boepd.
Norway ~ 2000bbl/d
The share price is holding up remarkably well. IMO due to our diversified footprint in the UK, Norway and Netherlands.
Harbour down 2.5%
Ithaca down 1.75%
Serica down 3.5%
Kistos up 0.2%
Siemens Energy shares plunge more than 30% as wind turbine worries deepen
Bad news for Siemens
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/06/23/siemens-energy-scraps-profit-outlook-as-wind-turbine-troubles-deepen.html?__source=androidappshare
I see this news as a positive development, as jcb-55 said 'they don't have any good options'
It would appear that following the Sargon hearing, where the experts had the opportunity to put their evidence before a judge, both parties have decided to settle.
This leads me to believe that neither side felt they had a compelling argument that would convince a jury beyond reasonable doubt.
Therefore, I would assume that most, if not all of the thousands of state-level cases will be settled too.
Today's market reaction shows how much of a handbrake the ranitidine issue is to the share price.
I agree with the consensus view, it's a NO for me for the following reasons.
1. Labour most likely in power before or around Q4 2024
2. Labour have said they would only honour developments sanctioned before they get into power
3. Parkmead estimate a spud date of Q4 2024.
Why take the risk.
Best for us to stall Parkmead until after labour get into power and then reassess once we see what labour actually do.
CalEnergy have their plate full sorting out the mess with IOG and Parkmead have diminishing cash reserves.
With any luck we can pick up the licence for peanuts, if labour reverse their position on new developments once on the throne.
Just £2.5m to write down after tax.
A shame about the dry hole but we had to test it.
"Kistos' share of the cost of the well on a dry-hole basis is forecast to be c.€18 million pre-tax or c.€3 million post tax."
Wael Sawan goes to New York tomorrow to show investors that we are undervalued in relation to USpeers..
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/shell-ceo-goes-york-show-050000887.html
Shipscook1,
My apologies, I have just read the HMG statement and as you say it clearly states 'oil and gas'
The mind boggles...
"The tax rate for oil and gas companies will only return to 40% if both average oil and gas prices fall to, or below, $71.40 per barrel for oil and £0.54 per therm for gas, for two consecutive quarters"
Theshipscook1,
I assume that it either/or not both.
So, if NS gas trades at an average of below 54p per therm for a six month period we would pay 40% tax regardless of the oil price.
My understanding of the scaling back.
1. Windfall tax remains until March 2028 at 75%.
2. The tax rate would fall back to 40% if the average oil and gas prices fall to, or below, a set level for two consecutive three-month periods.
3. The level has been set at $71.40 per barrel for oil and £0.54 per therm for gas.
A huge improvement on the current situation but an incredibly blunt tool which one can only hope will be improved upon.
Surely a sliding scale would have been much fairer rather than the cliff edge proposed ( for example. 50% tax at an average of over $70 a barrel. 60% tax at an average of over $80 a barrel. 70% tax at an average of over $90 a barrel)
My understanding of the scaling back.
1. Windfall tax remains until March 2028 at 75%.
2. The tax rate would fall back to 40% if the average oil and gas prices fall to, or below, a set level for two consecutive three-month periods.
3. The level has been set at $71.40 per barrel for oil and £0.54 per therm for gas.
This seems a rather blunt tool questionable floor prices. In the 'new world' without russian oil and gas 54p per therm and $71.40 a barrel Brent seems pretty low to me.
Surely a sliding scale would have been much fairer rather than the cliff edge proposed ( for example. 50% tax at an average of over $70 a barrel. 60% tax at an average of over $80 a barrel. 70% tax at an average of over $90 a barrel)
Hopefully OPEC+ can peg Brent at $70 for ever..... If only!
Thanks Thomsk11,
Two great points made by AA
1. A year ago we took home 60p in the £1 of everything we made.
Now we take home 25p.
2. Rachel Reeves says she will scrap allowances and make her windfall tax retrospective.
With no certainty beyond the next general election you would be a fool to commit capital to anything other than near term, rapid return on capital projects.
March net production was 6562 boe/d down from 7505 boe/d in February.
Production was up a little at Q10-A but down a lot at GLA.
Q10-A
Gross 26.766.314 Nm3 or 5221 boe/d
60% net to Kistos = 3133 boe/d (February 2889 boe/d)
GLA
Gross 17,145 boe/d (16,319 boe/d of gas + 826 b/d of oil)
20% net to Kistos = 3429 boe/d (February 4616 boe/d)
Thankfully we now benefit from an extra 2000 bbl/d or thereabouts from MIme.
I have added to my holding in the last few days too.
I am betting that we don't drop another 6% between now and the ex div date of the 29th of June.
I am again betting that we don't drop by 6% the day after ex div as you would expect a FTSE100 company to do.
To pick shares up at 215-220p with the prospect of a dividend return of 6% in less than a month was too big a temptation for me.
I think gas and oil prices are bottoming out before a sustained uplift in the late summer/autumn which will hopefully support our sp and propel it upwards.