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Hi mitch. looking at the math, 5% of ownership change for glen is actually 32M shares based on 640M total, so maybe it could be them. my point is just there are so few with this amount of shares and in my view the must important for glen is to have a running income with a good fee based on the lifetime of the mine, vs getting bit extra for the shares. but elphick and rest of us want most for the shares. if you look at glen mkt cap it is like 60 B. daily change on stock price can easily change 2%, so the mkt cap can daily chance like 1.2B. My point is maybe it is not so important for them to get like 4 GBP pr share, as they can report a one time income of 1.2B only. for me they might consider selling a part of their share cheap now before an official deal, but then getting a potential yearly royalty of 100M each year the next 40 years, as 30M (potential 60M) yearly could give 3B profit on a yearly basis, so perhaps buyer prefer to give them 3% on yearly output, instead of paying them 1.2 B upfront. it limits the upfront risk alot. this way they only need to buy out the rest of us
Hi Mitch. But I think if they have to report a 5% change in holding, it is 14M shares so maybe not them, but are you sure they need to report each 5%?. But it can also not be shard as the big sell was 14M shares and they only have 12 M without coming with RNS. looking at #3 shareholder it is everitt holding 17M shares but if correct about the 5% reporting he should also have reported that he has sold. I think the big questionmark for me is. 1) where does the 14M come from?2) who can be the buyer as clearly on a day with no news there is not an ask for this size of shares and at the time a seller with this kind of holding unless someone in top 3?
Could it be in theory that the new buyer/partner is not satisfied with GLEN both having a marketing fee/royalty and on top will earn alot on their shares, so they have agreed to buy XX shares at market price from Glen at low level? Glen has compared to elphick and rest of us, a much bigger upside on a future 30 year fee, so perhaps they would agree to earn bit less on their share holdings by selling some off cheap now to future investor. I guess they could do so without it is inside=
Could it be in theory that the new buyer/partner is not satisfied with GLEN both having a marketing fee/royalty and on top will earn alot on their shares, so they have agreed to buy XX shares at market price from Glen at low level? Glen has compared to elphick and rest of us, a much bigger upside on a future 30 year fee, so perhaps they would agree to earn bit less on their share holdings by selling some off cheap now to future investor. I guess they could do so without it is inside=
I was reading the investor presentation again, and FOB cost at 30M stage, is 25.2 usd/Ton. In this they calculate a royalty based on sale price of 70 usd/ton on 1.7 usd/ton. does anyone know if this relates to the congo royalty or glen marketing/royalty fee under new structure?
This is going to fly so wildly next week imo. almost 15M shares traded today. This is not normal in any way and I only saw very few times the last years. I am sure all stakeholders are planned to be in now, before next news that hopefully will be good for all of us. I loaded another 200K today:-)
Pls comment.
as I can see Glen, elphick, Everitt is holding 61% total.
employees and management team got as I recall 27M shares, equal almost 4%.
ZIOC sold last year 3x7M before the merger with GLEN so should be around half now of total so 2%
This gives 67%.
Then if we theoretically think the shard is going into pockets somewhere with interest in a deal, the 2x12M is another 3.5%
This is 70%+. Then we dont know if potential partners has been accumulating over last 12 month in different entitities, but could be likely. In my view free float could easily be less than 20%.
MM I think the 250K shares last evening was a delay from 2 Jan as I recall
Hi MM. I see your point, but I struggle to understand what they need pocket money for, as this is really irrelevant if they have a real investor coming onboard in Q1?
Veteran. I think you say it your self. the ipo was 156p, so if sold by 200p I dont think congo or buyer has much to complain about. investors has been doing a study at 350MUSD+ and have been waiting for 13 years. If you bought at IPO, it is not fantastic to get 200P taking timeline into consideration and what your money has been able to do elsewhere for 13 years
Well in my view we should already be at 20p today with current milestones done. Last 6 months milestones indicates that this mine is going to be developed after 13 years waiting, and I dont see we have ever in the past had so much key information at hand that we will get developed. The question is if PI will be bought out or will keep a stake in the future diluted naturally. I dont think they see any value of having us on board so in my view would buy us out. 20p is based on what we already know today, as potential could be imo a bo price between 50p-350p. At 350p the asset is valued at 2B, so nothing compared to the potential profit this could do at 30M ton pr year
I am not sure this is shard. why would they be in such a hurry to sell shares at this stage? clearly the loan must have been renewed at this stage, so cant see what they need money for currently? hiring the CEO must clearly confirm they already have an agreement in place for securing future funds, or you dont hire a CEO before you have this in place. in my opinion