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Putinās war as painful as it is, has only sped up the focus on alternative fuels-which is strategically a win.
Wholesale gas and oil is almost pre war prices, putin economy held up by Asia thro discounted fuel and other materials.
Wholesale food price have dropped substantially and always take time to filter.
The race to grow UK economy and its balance with interest rates and stagnation will mean BoE inflation target probably not met and lingering at 4-5%. UK may even need a recession.
Itās a dead end for Russia as in 10 years India/China will have alternative fuels in order to beat US. India by then will be the largest populated country. Hydrogen fuel cells etc race will be won in Asia.
2050 fossil depletion is based on todayās availability and as you say JJ that depends on new discoveries. However by 2035-2040 parts of the populated areas will be under water, and the only question in the human psyche will be survival and a race to reduce carbon already heating the polar regions.
Trees are going to be so critical in helping save land.
As land is taken by water through polar depletion or non existent, famine, disease and displacement of human populations will be order of the day.
We are in serious trouble but we have most of the tools to fight if we can refocus from destroying to rebuilding Mother Nature.
Priorities today are like chalk to cheese in just 5 years on current trajectory.
Soon the BoE and government will be using ā stagnation fearā
Inflation will fall once lower wholesale prices hit retail, but probably no lower than 4% by year end
Interest rate reductions and tax reductions will soon be a weapon of choice for government.
Itās clear that no political party in UK or indeed around the globe quite understands the impact of warming and the potential volume of land that could be lost under water. Plus thankfully fossil fuel will come close in 2050 to being exhausted.
Totally insufficient work shifting large industrial and transportation toward neutral carbon and removing carbon. The narrative from people in power is still trivial lunacy compared to the size of our problem. Warming on the scale we have is not cyclical, and itās man made in the last 100 years.
Sorry typo ācoats and jumpersā !!
JJ, I say rain in March is good for clothing retailers because costs and jumpers generally are cleared faster from old season. April the 45% trunk stock arrives from freight into main UK hubs for summer.
The spring volume generally is used to fill in winter range gaps and is no where near the summer volume. Its crucial space is cleared for summer ranges.
Discounting is a serious problem if summer comes too early for winter stock clearance. Rain in March is very good news to avoid silly discounting (75% off etc) But warehousing old stock is even more expensive!!!
Thatās my rationale behind my comments.
I always aimed at 65% of volume profit margin delivered by end of January and 30-35% in by end March for winter.
March negative retail data was 100% expected by retailers.
The city and media see the negative headlines as just another opportunity to profit.
Easter sales data last year fell into March and this year its moved by a week into April.
Rain generally is a help for clothing retailers in March.
Idiotic sheep will follow the media, shares are best held for at least one or two years to fully benefit ups and downs.
There are and always will be parochialism, geopolitical issues and additionally health where population is increasing most.
Thatās why homework is critical for investing and even then itās only 50% safe.
Issues have not really changed but scale has as population grows and communication.
A listed company obviously can make a bid for JL and be put to partners.
Mutual companies can be broken, you only have to look at the building society precedences.
Chilting hi, As I understand it JS have reduced minced beef by 55% saving 450 tonnes of plastic each year.
The pity is the remaining plastic is not biodegradable, or it doesnāt state so?
The reduction of plastic means fewer green distribution trays and less cubic space required on its supply chain and space including refrigeration. Probably more productive too.
Analysts pointing to a -3.8% footfall drop on high st this year in March.
Yet Easter this year has moved by one week from March into April !
Deliberately misleading people who only read headlines.
The stability of the finished product as it comes from the mincer is all thatās impacted in reality-blood is destabilised from vessels and it becomes mulch with handling, whereas the linpak or hard plastic trays retained its integrity previously.
These same complainers will also be pointing fingers at how terrible companies are for damaging the planet, most of whom are radio 4 listeners with nothing else to do. Iād get all these people planting trees !!!
Nxt ceo is renowned for his pessimism and said same last year about volume of full price sales decline.
But full price sales are governed by ordering and product innovation.
Nxt look across to Mks is 40% non food participation.
The P/E ratio of Mks/Nxt is a wide gap and indeed Mks comparison to retail as a whole at 12x. This is where Cheryl potter has to earn her keep-but only 4 weeks into job.
Jimjam, I hope you have recovered now. Best wishes.
)) Indeed Chilting! In the interest of collaboration, cohesion and values yet to think about, they probably will send out the invite to the Americans!
After all there maybe a VC or PE fund within that population!
The mind boggles as to how they select talent on the board!
Thatās exciting Chilting! The only issue is the length of time it would take her (5 years?) to raise a strategy for keeping American ones off the island.
By the time sheās done that the native ones will be depleted.
Part of her strategy would probably include building homes for the native squirrels and raising funds by mortgaging the island itself .
A week in retail is a long time.
Delegation is crucial but no one area of retail can be without strong leadership, and continuous performance data.
Retail moves so fast with influences coming from every direction. Governance over a simple weekly trading, property, commercial, financial planning, IT, international, people, or board itās endless, and very strictly routine. Strategy sessions are quarterly and then you have to be seen at all levels.
Experience counts for a lot as you go into these senior positions running, barely a moment to lose.
Neither the ceo or cfo have experience in retail at JL.
Inexperienced leaders tend to throw money at problems until it runs out.
Worse still if you donāt know what you are selling and not close to it.
Sales, and profit per square metre, and 1-5 years improvement plans with clear targets, together with robust meaningful customer research on products and services is core.
Selecting equities to invest in require in depth research into leadership team, market, plans, cash flow.
M&S has been hard at work changing people culture to simplify itself to deliver all the aforementioned, and itās bearing strong roots.
Letting go of Ocado was a clear own goal at JL and was a strong clue to the way they donāt work, and so was giving up their strap line to its core values never knowingly undersold.
Their product range in store shows a lazy hard hand from commercial/buying, with back margin products everywhere, dust collection on products and out of season, poor or weak range management and slow cash flow. Shop floor shows the leadership cracks at a glance.
I think Mks will give a 4p divi and pay down further some of the 425mĀ£ debt.
Phat is now filtered on this discussion board-donāt allow him to fill board with rubbish, block him now.
To get a divi out of Ocado??? )))))) thatās the funniest Iv heard yet!
Mks can disrupt online delivery costs with food via GIST/Ocado tech. Incorporating its Ocado commitment but realising a Mks branded delivery service aimed at mid to high end market.
Zero carbon delivery vehicles with 90%+ full capacity, serviced by the min capital spend for cfc & kit in the highest geo-density is difficult, but Ocado has helped retailers understand this market and tech.
Volume CG will probably help pay for the tech for a while, but this section of an overall omnichannel is critical but must help the retailers branding too-so goodwill value fully appreciates
The volume targets with suppliers for cost of goods discounts is absolutely critical Chilting of course! In line with range management and product listings.
What also matters is the scale of growth projected over the next day 5 years to properly negotiate with suppliers. Those retailers who are winning will get the bigger COG discounts and retain largest CG.
I expect short term for Mks to move nearer to 11 x earnings after they publish pt profit of say 390-410mĀ£
This is important to remember guys.
https://corporate.marksandspencer.com/sites/marksandspencer/files/marks-spencer/results-reports-webcasts-and-presentation/m-and-s-ocado-jv-rns-final.pdf