Member Info for NAV_Mike

...and besides it would be an extremely pessimistic way to do the calculations when they are more likely to refinance the maturing bonds

I hope we arent going to have to endure weeks of the old game where the price tries to rise in Euro time, only to lose it all when the US opens. All because their prez wants it lol

Listen, I am mighty peed off at recent price performance but people need to stop panicking as if HBR has £4.7bn in ordinary loans that must be continually serviced

Long term bond debt is a component of most larger oil producers - thats why getting it to investment grade with a lower coupon was so important

The RCF needs to be serviced, but we dont know current net levels

Bonds have to pay their interest coupon, but dont need to be repaid until their maturity date. Given HBRs improved credit rating, they are more likely to be refinanced on better terms

We need the detail from formal accounts to see actual levels of 2025 debt repayment

The RCF facility is presumably the only component that might require it, however do we know the current level of this facility?

From the last investor presentation the rest of the debt is bonds, most of which are fairly long dated. There looks to be $1.1bn debt due for repayment, however this will presumably be refinanced by better grade new debt?

Certainly some recently reported numbers seem to be worse than in that presentation - namely 2024 FCF and forecast production

...oh and another awful closing auction to finish with

what a great time to be alive! hbr off 17% since results and one of this boards biggest ******s has reappeared. oh the joy lol

Not a single share bought/sold in the first hour

Aye fair enough. Would love to see a breakdown of that forecast given the massive jump in production and significant lowering of opex costs

Is tax the killer here?

.....not to mention we are currently 60% gas which is doing altogther better than crude

(UK Gas at 121p/thm)

Well hopefully not everyone in the city is fixated on the charts, and will pay attention to fundamentals

Producing say 475k bpd with a mcap of £3.5bn is ridiculous when compared to peers. Goldman have given HBR have a massive kick in the nuts, but their target has been reached, so what next?

Bid price is actually down another 7p on Fridays close

Its only showing down 3.5p because the closing auction last week was awful

This is getting ridiculous

Those two paragraphs from the update I highlighted yesterday have me thinking the December results could be a massive housecleaning exercise.

Dump a large future tax provision into the numbers to wipe out profits (and make Milliband look stupid) and tidy up all events arising from the acquisition - in other words a kitchenm sink job.

The pessimist in me can see an after tax loss, but it will give us a wonderful start point for 2025. Trouble is, its a can-kicking exercise that may defer upward momentum for quite a while

HBR is greatly undervalued, but as a long term holder, it always seems to be a pawn in the games played by market spivs

Remember when HBR eliminated all profits by bringing forward a massive deferred tax provision? I have a feeling they are going to pull the same stunt again in order to highlight how deluded our Energy Minister is

Its all smoke and mirrors ultimately but will get some decent headlines methinks

Aye maybe...or just possibly the sell on news brigade have gallopped over the horizon

Those two paragraphs I mentioned are unfortunate as they muddy the waters somewhat

Excellent update all round, but a couple of things I would like some clarity on:

"Increased EBITDAX of c.$4.1 billion (2023: $2.7 billion). Pre- and post-tax income anticipated to be impacted by material non-cash accounting charges largely driven by adverse changes to the UK fiscal regime". Are they going to wipe out profits with aggressive tax treatment like they did before?

(re 2024 Cashflow) "This reflects a material negative working capital movement and an unplanned outage at East Irish Sea in the UK in Q4"

Aye been some larger sales over last couple of days. Nothing earth shattering but enough to get the price heading lower

If only people could be patient...its been well flagged that this will be an exciting year

LOL I was actually joking, but the way they are trading this, we could turn red soon....jeez wept

I see short term resistance at around 295, then theres a big round number to overcome at 300

Even so, at these commodity prices, and our lower op/ex costs, HBR must be starting to throw off very decent amounts of cash

I see this morning traders have largely snuffed out the early move, but this cant go on forever......

Well I guess this will be the new norm. Periods of zzzzz where hopefully not to many holders get bored and sell, punctuated hopefully by exciting deal/project news every now and then

Would just like some reassurance on what current cash position is like